magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I'd point to the absurd conviction rate
The Japanese conviction rate being so high is mostly a result of two factors:
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The Japanese take confession cases to trial (the confession is presented as evidence), so they show up as "conviction" in Japanese statistics whereas they show up as "not a trial" in almost every other country's. Because confessions are very common, this drastically inflates Japan's conviction rate.
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Japanese prosecutors are actually quite reticent about pressing charges without a confession, so cases that might show up as "acquittal" in another country tend to show up as "not a trial" in Japan.
Japanese culture is indeed hilariously disgusted with criminals (the best example is probably the manga/anime Death Note, in which a vigilante who decides to kill all the criminals - but who can only kill the ones who the justice system has already caught - is presented as morally ambiguous rather than an utter lunatic), but AIUI their justice system isn't actually as vicious as you'd expect from that (note that Japan does not have jury trials, which is probably a good thing).
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
They lost their culture to the extent that precious little is known of pre-Roman Gallic culture and the language spoken in France is classified as Romance language, heavily descended from Latin.
S_S did also mention the Suebi, who have plenty of descendants.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I think we are functionally in agreement.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
This challenge is important and demonstrates many good qualities.
Under current sexual harassment norms, you're wrong. It currently reduces to an arsehole filter; current norms are that asking out a woman who doesn't want it is evil, so asking out a woman not known to want it is, probabilistically, also evil, and only arseholes do it.
Set fire to those norms, and you'd be right.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Small-scale questions allows CW.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I'd presume it's "the Culture War".
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
There's nothing that practically stops all the other members agreeing to boot Turkey out, considering that decision "unanimous", then writing a new rule about removal after the fact. Officially the alliance member needs to consent to removal to leave.
I mean, if it's literally unanimous, then they totally can dump Turkey; they'd just need to agree to all leave NATO and make a new organisation that is literally copypasted NATO except Turkey doesn't get admitted.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
"If we get nuked at least we'd have got rid of some blacks" is certainly one of the takes.
I'm making an Is statement, not an Ought statement.
I'm really just curious what kind of a train of thought led you to that.
Nuclear war is on my mind a fair bit, especially right now since October's a good month for amphibious invasion of Taiwan and the USA has a known demented President and an election campaign in progress that's seen a disqualification attempt and two assassination attempts already (and the election being a shitshow was predictable years in advance). So when somebody makes a statement that seems to discount nuclear war as a possibility, it pings my "someone is wrong on the internet" instinct.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
There’s no reversing that.
Fully, no, but I'd be interested in statistics on what the racial makeup would look like if the 20 or 30 biggest cities got deleted; my eyeball says they tend somewhat more minority (especially black).
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Whoops, got them mixed up. Apologies.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
(the only alternative is the Volga-Don canal)
Wrong canal. You're thinking of the Volga-Baltic Waterway and White Sea-Baltic Canal, which together allow Russia to move stuff from the Black Sea to the Baltic or White Seas (the latter of which gives uninterdictable ocean access). The Volga-Don Canal connects the Black and Caspian Seas, but that's of much more limited value since the Caspian Sea is a lake.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
The only thing for it is to hope that they fail spectacularly in a limited way that kills fewer than hundreds of millions of people, and which results in some new oversight, before everything goes even more spectacularly wrong.
You could also hope for Silicon Valley to get nuked in WWIII, and prep to survive it in order to help lock things down afterward. That's one hell of a bleak and bitter view, though.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
If you actually believed that AI was an existential risk in the short- or medium-term, then you would be advocating for the government to seize control of OpenAI’s datacenters effective immediately, because that’s basically the only rational response.
This would be great, yes. To the extent I'm not advocating for it in a bigger way, that's because I'm not in the USA or a citizen there and because I'm not very good at politics.
It’s very suspicious that the most commonly recommended course of action in response to AI risk is “give more funding to the people working on AI alignment, also me and my friends are the people working on AI alignment”.
This has less to do with nobody saying the sane things, and more to do with the people saying "throw money at me" tending to have more reach. There may also be some direct interference from Big Tech; I've heard that YouTube sinks videos calling for Big Tech to be destroyed, for instance.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
If you let at most ten guilty men go free to save a innocent, you're implicitly saying that the risk of them committing crimes is outweighed by the good the innocent person could do.
No; there's also the harm of the imprisonment/execution of the innocent itself, and the second-order effects (you do not want the civilian population en masse to start treating the justice system as an occupying army).
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
One thread I'd be fine with. Weekly threads is overkill and clogs up the main page.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I think weekly threads about this are unnecessary given the low amount of traffic; this is not a very Mottely topic and draws little interest from non-Americans like myself.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
That's a valid position! But you can hopefully now see how your argument comes across as a strawman, because you didn't engage with the actual argument for the "you didn't earn my vote" position.
(And I'd have to agree with @RenOS: either be upfront partisan or be actually, for-reals nonpartisan. People really hate getting suckered.)
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
· Edited 2mo ago
This isn't about credentials. This is the third-variable problem: if A and B are correlated, then either A causes B, B causes A, or something else C causes both A and B.
I'm willing to take at face value that there's a correlation between anime-watching and transsexualism. But we already know that there is a third variable that causes both of these - autistics tend to like anime due to how our sensory processing works, and we tend to be susceptible to going trans although I'm not certain of why. (There's another obvious confounding third variable, now that I think about it; young people are more exposed to anime due to globalisation, and also are more exposed to pro-trans messaging due to greater Internet use and the rise of SJ.)
If the correlation is fully explained by causation from third variables, then there's no need to hunt for reasons A might cause B because it doesn't cause B. Folamh3's friend's noticed correlation was the preponderance of all four of teenage/autistic/anime/trans, which is totally consistent with "autism and youth tend to cause both anime-watching and transsexualism". If you have evidence that autism and youth do not fully explain the correlation between anime-watching and transsexualism, then yes, time to look for more complex explanations. Until then, there's nothing to explain.
(To give an example: Lung cancer is correlated with peripheral vascular disease. Neither causes the other. The correlation is because smoking causes both lung cancer and peripheral vascular disease, so an unusually-large fraction of the people with one are heavy smokers who are also at high risk of the other.)
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I don't think we even know there's a correlation between anime-watching and transsexualism after controlling for the obvious confounder of autism (if you have evidence there is, I'm all ears). No point reaching for hypotheses to explain something until you know whether there's something to explain - especially not when you're thinking of reaching for a notorious false friend like the Jack Thompson argument.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I don't know why watching anime seems to set so many people on the trans pipeline, I just know that it does. I know that being trans and watching anime both have very large overlaps with autism (in both boys and girls).
Autism causes watching anime because the sensory interpretive circuits in the brain don't work the same way.
I suspect it's being autistic, not the anime-watching, that causes the susceptibility to transsexualism; I saw anime as a kid, of course, but I hadn't gotten into hentai, or started downloading anime, when I went GID.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Regarding consequentialism: The trend I see from the last ~20 years of US politics is away from catering to undecided votes and towards riling up your base. While a highly partisan voter might never actually switch sides, motivating them to show up seems to be the primary tactic employed by both parties today.
To the extent this is rational on the parties' part, it is because these people don't show up all the time to vote for the lesser evil! If they did, then the portion of this pandering that is rational (as opposed to the portion dictated by the primary system, which is significant) would go away! This is my point.
(To be clear, I think that "get out the vote"-based politics is bad for the USA and that Australia's mandatory IRV which mostly negates it is very good for us (IRV's clone independence also provides an important guardrail against "well, the special interest bought out both major parties, I guess we're fucked"). But that doesn't change the incentives for a US voter as it stands.)
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Update: apparently tiny solar panels are, in fact, a thing. The emergency radio I bought has, in addition to its hand-crank and charging port, a ~5cm2 solar panel on it. I can't imagine it provides much power (it does have a cable to charge other things), but eh.
(Given the solar panel, I didn't even bother asking if the radio was EMP-proof; it's going in foil if/when there's a crisis.)
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
You have now internet-met a libertarian who thinks it's too high.
(I'm grudgingly in favour of an AoC simply because five-year-olds aren't going to understand sex ed and people who haven't had sex ed pose rape-by-implicit-deception issues where a kid doesn't understand that consenting to unprotected sex is consenting to possibly produce a baby and/or possibly get HIV. But putting it above 14 is crazy talk.)
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Most libertarians oppose bans on loli hentai for exactly this reason.
I mean, false confessions are a problem with the Japanese system, yes. Was thinking about editing that in but you pre-empted me.
Note that while they do push pretty hard, it's still AIUI hardly peine forte et dure (either in the original "food and water on alternate days" sense or the later "lol we crush you with weights" sense).
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