iprayiam3
3mo ago
Sure. agreed. which is why I think she'll ride into November in the basement.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
There's rumor that it was pushed on his side to basically force him out quickly. I think that's plausible, but even the more benign reasoning, concerns about Biden's age related fintess were real, causing him to sink, and needed to be addressed quickly. Biden had already worn his honeymoon for 4 years. Kamala needs to sprint into November from the basement.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
I think there's too much unpredictability. I could easily believe Trump crushing Kamala in a debate. I could easily see the opposite. Trump's not the best contrast to Kamala's weaknesses of vapid and ramble, while Kamala is a great contrast to both Biden and Trump re: not geriatric.
Either way, are debates really going to happen?
iprayiam3
3mo ago
so to be clear, I don't think it will last forever, but will last till november.
Rogd is a bigger issue in teen girls, and schools supporting this / putting them in risky situations by encouraging them to use mens rooms is definitely an issue, even if not as immediately off-putting as men using women's rooms. At the same time, they're two sides of the same ideology coin anyway. Putting tampons in mens room comes with letting biological men into women's rooms, and I think people get that.
It all falls under the 'woke teachers are grooming children' category.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
When was the last time anyone entered the presidential election this close to the election as a major party candidate? I really don't think we could draw too much guidance from primary candidate fades.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
I think there's a very reasonable chance that Trump bombs in any debate with Kamala. Trump was only good in his debate with Biden insofar as he wasn't a corpse. Trump will be the geezer this time and Kamala will get the 'not a corpse' halo instead
iprayiam3
3mo ago
Silvers model is now favoring Kamala, so are the most recent polls. I think Trump will only slide from here in the polls. There's nothing new to keep him up. He's at a ceiling between now and November.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
Economic trouble won't necessarily be blamed on Kamala per se, but it will lock in a perception of probably the weakest aspect of the past four years of Democrat rule: economic stife via inflation. I think a real downturn will turn out the vote for Trump. But it's not something I'm rooting for.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
It won't? Why not, she's only rising in the polls. What is the mechanism that will end her honeymoon before November? It's pure copium.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
Why will she have to do something if polls are close if that something is objectively worse that hiding from scrutiny? She's not going to go on an adversarial program or field tough questions just because.
iprayiam3
3mo ago
when the honeymoon period ends and she actually makes public appearances.
Why is there an expectation that she will actually make public appearances? She's going to vibe her way to Nov and win. I increasingly can't understand any argument otherwise, except as wishful thinking.
The idea that Kamala will be forced to make a fool of herself in public is Q-Anon level cope.
A major economic downturn or a bungled military crisis are the only two outside shots Trump has.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
It is gross to criticize another’s motives when you don’t know.
If you think I was saying that you are concern trolling, I'm not. I'm referring to several online R personalities on Twitter and such. If you're calling my calling that out gross, then what can I say, you're heaping woke-scolding on top of your side's concern trolling.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
I'm somewhere between you and zeke's objection on this. Closer to you, and think the concern trolling is phony. But I thikn the point about neutralizing the 'threat to democracy' rhetoric has some validity.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
I just don't believe anyone is honestly upset at any alleged violation of democratic norms. Notably, I don't see many Democrats complaining about this turn of events.
I don't think the violation of norms now is really a big deal, and it's a lot of R's concern-trolling. But on a more nuanced level, it is representative of an avoidable past failing.
Unless Biden suddenly became much worse timed exactly with the debate itself, (which is possible tbf), the issue is best summed up as "They didn't pull biden because he had dementia, they pulled him because the voters found out". The argument is that could have forseen this and pulled it when there was still time for a democratic process.
I think the correct response should be, it's not a big deal that they have to circumvent norms at this hour. But it is a big deal that it was allowed to get this late.
Suppose I urge everyone to go to the pool and shut down debate about alternative activities. Then, when we're at the pool, it starts thundering. We have to pack it in fast, and the bowling alley is next door so we go there without a vote.
Now when we get there, you find out that I had seen the weather forecast and knew there was a strong chance of storms. Simultaneously, you can agree with my decision to call it on the pool when the thunder starter, agree that once there, the bowling alley was the only logical backup, but still be very very angry with me for hiding the forecast.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
Completely agree with this. I watched the whole thing and just don't understant the argument that Biden won on substance. Over the course of the debate, Trump made a couple things clear about his 'platform', whether you believe he can get it done or not aside:
- Keep abortion at the state level
- Address inflation
- Address the border crisis and as a consequences, jobs, crime, social security, and medicare funding
- Be economically aggressive against China (and others)
- Return to the 'quiter' level of global conflict under his term, and reign in the foreign spending.
Biden on the other hand closed with an "everything is great America is great" statement with a dash of 'there's work to be done'. Sure it's always hard for the incumbant to thread the needle of bringing improvement without admiting your first term has been lacking. But just so. Shit sucks now, and Biden didn't offer much about how it would improve under a second term.
Biden dug in hardest as his strongest theme that Trump is a liar, but 1. That's irrespective to Trump's assessment of the issues to be addressed, vs Biden's lack thereof. and 2. Biden went hard on two debunked hoaxes: Fine People, and Suckers and Losers. (He also made passing references to other debunked hoaxes like injecting bleach). This alone, should have undermined his ability to portray himself as an arbiter of 'truth and lies' by any honest critic.
In other areas, Biden's arguments were just contextually irrelevant, despite the fact that he spoke with more 'detail'. The biggest example that comes to mind is the abortion exchange. After Trump made it clear that he personally beleived in exceptions that include rape and incest, but beleived that the states should decide democratically, Biden went on and on about different examples of rape and incest. Sure he was exhaustive in the different relatives that could rape a woman, but what counterpoint was it making to Trump? Trump already pre-agreed that those are indeed scenarios he believes in allowing abortions for.
iprayiam3
4mo ago
According to the NPR clip I heard this morning, Biden pushed for this early debate because they needed some play to reverse the fading in the polls.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
The two problems I run into are
-
the more you give to ChatGPT to code for you, the quicker a progam of any length is going to lose you, and when you inevitably have to reconsider some decision you might get stuck trying to understand foreign code.
-
ChatGPT is extremely annoying to troubleshoot with. It is over eager to spit out many steps at once, and tons of code example. It is very difficult for me to get ChatGTP to take things one step at a time with me in a back and forth manner.
ChatGPT is an amazing expert sitting right next to you who talks to much. But you need to keep him on a tight leash, and you will only hurt yourself in the future if you are too eager to let him drive.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
it's hilarious to me that these responses have basically proven your point. You dropped that line in, very clearly to specify what your goals were and avoid gymbro pointers, and you've gotten gymbro pointers about how you can't accidentally become a gymbro.
I think he hired a chick to play him and terribly read his scripts.
Listen to him on a bailey podcast episode from back in 2020: https://thebaileypodcast.substack.com/p/e016-the-banality-of-catgirls-f65
He has claimed that he used to use a voice modulator to sound male to prove that "she" could make it without being a thirst trap. But that's just track covering. 2020 is before Kulak was down this influencer wanna be rabbit hole and that's just a dudes voice. And it has absolutely no resemblance in cadence or speech patterns to "girl" kulak
Also, no woman ever wrote like Kulak writes ever.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
Kulak is not a woman. I think he's trying very hard to create a fake woman thirst trap persona.
iprayiam3
5mo ago
In bed by 9pm to 930pm, asleep by 10-11pm.
It takes you up to 2 hours to fall asleep?!
Musk brought it up 3 times, clearly hoping to get something on the record from Trump. It was clearly central goal of Musk's even with a little mini-lecture about inflation planned. Trump dodged a solid answer at all. On the third try the most he said was "I'd love it" to the idea, but not to Musk helping.
I'm not saying it won't happen, but it sounded like a Musk idea that Trump didn't bite on, and it would completely depend on his actual administration.
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