hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Abbott outran Paxton by six points. Unfortunately, Paxton lost by 20.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Yeah, but given the social security time bomb thé party in power in 2032 is guaranteed to lose harder than republicans did tonight.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Look, I’d been telling you Talarico would win. I’m surprised and despairing that Abbott lost, Hinojosa is literally worse on the issues than Lula or Ramaphosa. But I told you it might happen.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Can democrats
No
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Yeah, Abbott is… well he has an independent politics machine and a lot of reason to hate trump.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Yes. Paxton is terrible. I’m mostly disappointed Abbott couldn’t outrun him enough to keep an insane socialist who’s never had a job from thé top spot.
hydroacetylene
14hr ago
Should just give Abbott what he wants to use his personal information and campaigning system infrastructure.
hydroacetylene
14hr ago
There was no way for Trump to be perceived as good on the economy, because what voters wanted was a rise in purchasing power with no other changes and the macroeconomic conditions mean that's just not in the cards in the near-term future. 'Iran' 'Tarrifs' 'Epstein' are probably positives for Trump because it makes voters think about things where he has an excuse for not giving them what they want- well, an excuse they can understand.
hydroacetylene
14hr ago
It is kinda late for an october surprise.
hydroacetylene
15hr ago
Secular.
hydroacetylene
17hr ago
There is no pagan right, at least not in the red tribe(which is the sine qua non of american rightist politics for the forseeable future).
There are red tribers who do not practice Christianity, yes. There are red tribers who are secular, yes. But the red tribe itself rejects the idea that people who are not nominally Christian- or Jewish- can be a part of it.
hydroacetylene
17hr ago
I expect Talarico to win and Abbott to squeak by. Democrats in power will push catastrophically bad policy and a side of 'Fuck Trump'. I would expect Texas nationalists to be the big winner from this election- their policy ideas aren't really any better, but the low-IQ conspiracy theorist section of the GOP has to go somewhere, and they hate democrats too much to stay over there(to be fair, the feeling is mutual). Both of my this-term outcome predictions are weak, this is a very blue year and reps are stuck defending some smart but horrendously unpopular decisions about education and datacenters, but Texas GOP voters are very sticky.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
The optics of that are terrible, though.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
I mean, in his first term that was basically true.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
Well, actually, there's a couple of normal cyclical variations in the beef supply that all lined up at once- and while this was easily forseeable under Biden(I remember telling people that lamb would be cheaper than beef soon in 2023), the people actually doing it haven't voted for a democrat since the mid seventies.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
Well yes, people think patients shouldn't have to pay for healthcare. The only question is whether the government should pay instead.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
'Likes Paxton' is more of an ask than 'likes Trump' in Texas.
I voted for Paxton, because Talarico is terrible and I have a rule against caring about politicians' corruption issues. But I won't be too upset if Talarico wins- Paxton was a terrible candidate who probably would have been arrested and replaced with an Abbott appointee for corruption. Hinojosa would be the really terrible outcome.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
This is a thing that I try to explain over and over again to the very immigration concerned. There are some jobs which, in practice, require young-ish male labour. There are a certain number of American young males willing to do physical labour. That number is less than the number of jobs needing them; raising wages will not make the market clear, it'll just redistribute them from commercial fishing and oil drilling to whatever you raised wages in. The obvious solution is hondurans- they're willing to do physical work and the normal wages in these fields are already an exceptional deal for them. The alternative is using the criminal justice system to coerce lower class American men into these jobs. That, too, has its limits. But immigration into the US is driven largely by the market for physical laborers not clearing because there is a shortage of physical laborers.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
I would expect the helicopter glacier tour to be hard on the less dangerous end, because if eg unfavorable weather comes up you just tell the tourists it's cancelled today for weather concerns, raincheck.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
I'm not sure about that.
To start with, a huge chunk of road fatalities are due to alcohol. And 'drive sober and not when the bars are closing' cuts the danger from drunk drivers down by, like, 90 something percent. There's a few other basic steps to minimize road danger- drive a car and not a motorbike, etc- but the median driver already does them. You know that thing where the vast majority of drivers claim to be 'above average'? That's statistically true because the average is dragged down by habitual drunk drivers, text and drivers, etc.
But there's also lots of common recreational activities, at least in the US, that are at least as dangerous as driving. Horseback riding, power sports, and waterskiing, for example, are very popular red tribe activities, which are also fairly dangerous.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
My understanding is that med school is still difficult enough that he has to be genuinely smart to get through it, even with DEI.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
MINO's would also be hated by the red tribe, which is just generally islamophobic.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
I mean, I hate to break down actual Christian history vis a vis Israel and Judaism and who should control Jerusalem vs current Christian priorities.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
Iran actually has a very high rate of trans-ID. Often at gunpoint, they force homosexuals to transition.
You think Ken Paxton’s adultery, corruption, and partying with fugitives wasn’t going to come out on campaign in the general? You think Ken Paxton’s going on vacation instead of campaigning would have won him thé election if George Bush had been nicer to him?
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