hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
17d ago
Religious conservatives are a bit like black democrats, now: faithful to the party, but insufficient to deliver victories and so never given more than lip service.
Religious conservatives do get things out of our partnership with the GOP- notably, protection from cultural progressives, but we get at least half a loaf on abortion, and in red states we often get benefits about schools(based charters, for example).
hydroacetylene
17d ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-abortion-ban-medical-board-guidance/
https://www.tmb.state.tx.us/dl/1C5CBA1C-052B-403F-A0D1-FAF22ADD05CB
Red states are concerned and responsive to this issue already. Of course it's much more common for the media to scream about how malpractice cases, or the consequences of a woman's own bad decisions(Amber Nicole Thurman bled through one pad per hour for four days before seeking medical care), are caused by abortion bans.
hydroacetylene
17d ago
There’s no designated bad guy and we’re not paying for either side. So like Sudan…
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Capitalroom’s posts.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Except there’s three groupings of swing states by demographic- older and whiter(the blue wall), blacker and more religious(Georgia and NC), and secular urban with lots of Hispanics(Arizona and Nevada). We wouldn’t expect these three groups to be correlated with each other much at all.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
the fact that Hispanics are Uber-Catholic
No they’re not. Latins retain a Catholic majority but the bright spots in the US Catholic Church are driven by white ethnics and Hispanic under-50 religiosity is heavily evangelical.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
I mean, the damnYankees(one word) are the ethnic group everyone else is polarizing against. That’s been the story of the past decade or so in politics. Sometimes they’re joined by the blacks, but it’s pretty clearly a damnyankee driven phenomenon.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
I knew about contract soldiers in Russia but Ukraine’s reticence to conscript adequately is new to me. I’d assumed that the unequal brigades weren’t being sent into the Donbas for reasons you describe but that they existed and that, like normal countries in existential conflicts, young Ukrainian men were in the military even if most of what they did there was make-work.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
You can expect republicans to have an actual primary starting in late 2027, and a lot of things can happen by then.
I’d point to Youngkin, Abbott, and Hawley as clear major candidates in addition to those two anyways, although I expect whoever gets Trumps complete and total endorsement to drive the other four out.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
If you’re female, haven’t eaten, aren’t white, and/or are on SSRI’s, yes you can. And none of those things would surprise me about Harris.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
I think democrats will dial back on the race and gender stuff, because they’ll blame Harris’ loss on her being a bad candidate(and in fairness she was) and then blame that on her being a black woman.
I don’t expect this to be a stable equilibrium; the DNC’s calls for the race and gender stuff are coming from inside the house.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Zelensky is still resisting Western calls to conscript 18-25 year olds but there may be no other choice.
Uh, does he know he’s at war? Like I knew Ukraine needed to expand their draft but I didn’t know it was that bad.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Trump is likely to replace the two most conservative justices with ACB types.
Don’t get be wrong, ACB is legions better than a democrat pick. But moving the court to the right is a funny way to describe it.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Eh, people filling out their ballot wrong have it their own damn fault. I’ve no sympathy at all.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Uh, what’s the actual mechanism for giving non-federal employees a holiday?
Like heck yes I’m opposed to giving federal workers a paid day off on Election Day when I ain’t getting one.
hydroacetylene
18d ago
Harris county had some minor shenanigans in the midterm, too, IIRC.
hydroacetylene
19d ago
No. There might be a few damn-fool riots nearby if things get really bad but Texas cops will just crack skulls. Nobody gives two shits about my suburb and that includes the rioters, so at worst I just won’t go into certain areas for a day or two.
hydroacetylene
19d ago
If you know of a riot where I could score some free cement ping me.
hydroacetylene
19d ago
Also voters usually just want someone polished and respectable to be AG. There's less demand for someone ideological.
Laughs in Ken Paxton.
hydroacetylene
19d ago
Typically for the general I just remember races where I won’t vote straight r and no on the propositions. In primaries I fill out a sample ballot(regular Republican primary voters get them mailed by numerous orgs where I live, I just mark one up to select the local far right candidate).
This stuff spreads in person as much as through new media- the q boomers’ll have lots of it if you can sit through the real life political posting(and subsequent Jew posting). The old cranks sitting in the corner swapping actual physical copies of samizdat spread it.
hydroacetylene
19d ago
How many swing states allow same day registration?
hydroacetylene
19d ago
Wasn’t there the example in Michigan? The chinaman who voted and then told everyone about it because “?”
hydroacetylene
19d ago
The voting rights push that didn’t get cloture had a provision requiring voter ID. Presumably everyone who matters agrees it’s constitutional, even if only in private.
I can understand Muslim voters being mad enough at Kamala over Gaza to cast around and decide that they agree with Trump's agenda for other reasons. And it's not improbable seeming to me, either- AFAICT Dearborn has similar demographics to pre-9/11 Muslim-Americans, and the GOP did quite well among them back in the day.
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