hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
4d ago
You have South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the PRC, and some city states. Taiwan is arguably the best comparison for South Korea and it also has a TFR below 1, while the PRC will dip there very soon. The city states are South Korea tier but they’re also city states, I’ll give you that.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
It seems like arranged marriage is another big difference, yes? From my understanding arranged marriages still exist in Japan but are uncommon, while they’re very rare in South Korea and the sinosphere.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
On a global level this is exactly what's happening. The most talented and proficient are not reproducing.
At least in the US, this actually isn’t true- I made a top level comment about it a few months back. Blacks are the only group for whom the unsuccessful have generally higher fertility than the successful. For everyone else, higher income=higher fertility.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
What if the intended effect is not that progressive men continue whatever they were doing and get arbitrarily punished with sex withdrawal, nor that some random conservative men also get caught up and punished
I’m pretty sure that the intended effect is to inspire conservative women that they have safety in numbers and can leave their abusive husbands to become happy progressives.
That this belief is delusional and the husbands are probably not more abusive than the general population is of no matter; this is a small group of radicals.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
Stupid autocorrect. I meant Macao.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
They don't really expect their husbands to love or even like them, they do not expect sex to be enjoyable, and they are expected to be essentially maidservants for their husbands' families. (There is an entire genre of Korean horror movies about evil mother-in-laws.)
This seems common with pagan cultures. Like we knock on Islam for its(tbh, pretty repressive) treatment of women, but Islamic religion does tell husbands to take their wives' wants and needs into account and care for them. Scott just reviewed a book all about how early Christianity spread by telling women that it would make their husbands love them. And a pretty good chunk of the republican fertility advantage in the US comes from telling young women that socially conservative values will make men love them and treat them better(there's an entire genre of country music about loving on women who are babycrazy and have strong family values and how they're worth holding off on sex for and cutting back on drinking to reasonable levels and all that).
You don't have to deny women opportunities on a societal level to make their lives suck. Women are not the same as men, you can totally set up society to make it so they get the short end of the stick in hundreds of little ways.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
Stop worrying about people not having kids! Like, if you're reading this and that is something that you were worried about, I'm begging you, please, it'll be alright. Evolution works! It doesn't need your help! Organisms that are supposed to reproduce, will. Defective organisms that are unable to reproduce will weed themselves out, and rightfully so. It's almost a tautology. Humanity will not go extinct; but if it does, it'll be because it deserved to, and there won't have been anything you could have done as an individual to make a difference either way.
I'm not worried about humanity going extinct. I am worried about losing the ability to maintain an industrial society. Like there will be Amish in 200 years, but an all-subsistence-farmer society sucks. And yes, I am aware that the Amish are not pure subsistence farmers, but they depend on being able to trade with industrial society for inputs like solar panels to maintain the not-subsistence-agriculture parts of their society.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
The 4B movement will not change America because it will be embraced by an extremely small number of people who all come from subcultures with South Korea-tier fertility already.
It's also, as far as anyone can tell, not the cause of Korea's uniquely low fertility, because Korea's fertility is not uniquely low. It's on the low end of average for the region; Japan is actually an outlier up for developed East Asian fertility. Taiwan, the PRC, Monaco, Hong Kong, Singapore all have extremely low fertility and South Korea is on the lower end of average among that group. Not an outlier. The real question is 'what is Japan doing so right to have nearly double South Korea's fertility rate?' not 'why is South Korea's fertility so low?'.
And why developed East Asian countries have such low fertility rates is mostly known- they're highly urban places which generally have non-abrahamic religions which they barely practice in an ultra-competitive society in which childhood sucks. People don't like putting kids through hell, and South Korean and Chinese childhoods are hellacious. Strivers the world over generally have lower fertility rates, and everyone in these countries is a striver. Add incredibly dense urbanism and the lack of religious influence to raise fertility, it's not that hard to explain.
hydroacetylene
4d ago
Genuinely didn't know that, thought polio being eradicated in the western hemisphere+even slightly non-shithole parts of the eastern hemisphere was due to vaccines, like smallpox. Thanks for the context.
In practice I suspect countries which don't have to worry about cholera can skip polio shots, but I now understand why it's still on the vaccine schedule.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Ah, yes, third world migrants are the gift that keeps on giving.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
I mean, Leave it to Beaver managed. It seems obviously doable.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
And polio is a going concern only in a couple of third world eastern hemisphere countries, so you can safely skip that one.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Children in the US are no longer vaccinated for smallpox because the disease is extinct.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Vaccines are not even the sine qua non of modern medicine- no doubt they’re much cheaper than things like modern sewage systems and mass availability of antibiotics, but life expectancy started skyrocketing with improvements in sanitation and treatments for infection with vaccines more an acceleration of trend than a cause of it.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
I mean, there’s not really a not-awkward way to tip more than that.
If a friend gave me a stock tip that lead to me becoming a millionaire in a short time, I’d probably take them to fogo de chao- because that’s the default in my social circle for getting someone a six figure job, and it seems like the closest fit to a rough equivalent. But a stranger doing something personally low effort which results in a big windfall is the sort of thing which our society doesn’t have a script for.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
No one accepts those. Technically American gold eagles are legal tender and you could tip for very large favors with an ounce of gold- and the government has consistently ruled that regardless of face value they are to be regarded as worth the value of their metal content, not their face value.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
This is in fact trivial. It would be good to track the gentleman down, take him to a Michelin restaurant and pay for his children’s college education-it’s not like that isn’t equally trivial to a billionaire- but you don’t owe him more than the usual kindness for a trivial kindness just the same as the janitor at your startup headquarters doesn’t strictly need to get a huge payout at IPO, and you don’t have to give your pizza delivery guy from the night you made your breakthrough a million dollars when you sell the patent for it for a billion.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Couple of observations - first - relative to her demographic cohort the reaction towards Trump and his supporters is unbelievably tame. It is somewhere around 3/10 on the TDS scale. So I don't think that apology is even warranted. Every reasonable person knows that emotions will be high for a while.
Oh boo hoo. I remember Monday night football dropping hank Williams junior over much tamer comments about Obama. The shoe can be on the other foot for a while.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
And we were talking about "parents in the city"
The city in this case is rural Georgia. I doubt whoever reported the kid was a ‘childless cat lady’.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Opposite valence- the culture war objection was ‘why are you assuming my daughter is a whore?’.
I mean, yes, but the fact that vaccine safety was brought up as a serious objection to it indicates that anti-vax sentiment on the right isn’t entirely foreign.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
My whole point, of course, is that things only generate a police report if they're weird. If you make ten year olds going out and about by themselves normal nobody will call the cops.
And perhaps ironically, the first polity who have passed anti-Karen laws was the Mormon one.
A bunch of mormonism's social technology(the mission year, subsidized BYU tuition, singles wards) appears based around being able to separate the young from their families, so that's unsurprising.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
I mean, I live in a neighborhood where I won't have to go first, and I find that a very minor benefit towards expanding my house over moving. But I also live in a filter bubble of people who have gone first and gotten away with it- mine own parents were among them, once upon a time, for letting me bike to 7/11 or the library on mine own far younger than the other children in the neighborhood.
So I think if I had to make that gamble I'd feel comfortable rolling the dice. Lots of people I know did, and it worked out for them.
hydroacetylene
5d ago
It's worth pointing out that nearly all the anti-vaxxers were far left until Covid.
I don't think that's true.
It's true that being categorically anti-vax was extremely rare to the point of being unheard of among normie republicans, but the Alex Jones crowd had conspiracy theories out the wazoo about vaccines and it was common to object to the HPV vaccine. Yes, my filter bubble is less likely to vaccinate their kids against MMR, but the fringes already didn't trust vaccines. It's probably more accurate to say that antivaxxers were mostly far left; the far right getting majorly into alt medicine and opposition to vaccines was not my top prediction five years ago, but it's not a surprise at all. Normie republicans listening to the far right post covid, on the other hand...
hydroacetylene
5d ago
Umm, the percentage of people who are just generally anti vax is not a majority, but it’s much higher than 1%.
This is true, but Niger’s TFR is not driven by low IQ, it’s driven by being full of subsistence farmers. The highest TFR group in the world is the Amish, who are high-IQ subsistence farmers(ish, it’s complicated).
Within country IQ/fertility correlations mostly don’t point towards idiocracy.
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