hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I'm not sure about that.
To start with, a huge chunk of road fatalities are due to alcohol. And 'drive sober and not when the bars are closing' cuts the danger from drunk drivers down by, like, 90 something percent. There's a few other basic steps to minimize road danger- drive a car and not a motorbike, etc- but the median driver already does them. You know that thing where the vast majority of drivers claim to be 'above average'? That's statistically true because the average is dragged down by habitual drunk drivers, text and drivers, etc.
But there's also lots of common recreational activities, at least in the US, that are at least as dangerous as driving. Horseback riding, power sports, and waterskiing, for example, are very popular red tribe activities, which are also fairly dangerous.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
My understanding is that med school is still difficult enough that he has to be genuinely smart to get through it, even with DEI.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
MINO's would also be hated by the red tribe, which is just generally islamophobic.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I mean, I hate to break down actual Christian history vis a vis Israel and Judaism and who should control Jerusalem vs current Christian priorities.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Iran actually has a very high rate of trans-ID. Often at gunpoint, they force homosexuals to transition.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
My understanding is that Taqiyya is basically the doctrine that Muslims are allowed to lie to avoid persecution. Not a feature of Christianity- Christians are expected to accept martyrdom- but also not a load-bearing pillar of some long term conspiracy.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
The activist base that put Paxton over the top wasn't 100% MAGA(although there were MAGA activists in it). The local far-right wanted to take down Cornyn because they were upset about his votes on gun control, and they joined up with MAGA fans of Paxton's 2020 lawsuits. But Cornyn could have lost to a block of wood in a Gun Owners of America hat- or at least come close.
I voted for Wesley Hunt.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
The republicans have learned that shutting the texas border down against federal orders will win them the hispanic vote.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
by 10%
In an R+14 state.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Ken Paxton is campaigning on 'Talarico is too far to the left on social issues'. This is, in fairness, essentially true by the standards of the Texas electorate.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Paxton did not win primarily off of Trump's endorsement; in actual fact Trump endorsed Paxton when his victory appeared inevitable and before then it had been conventional wisdom that he would endorse Cornyn. Paxton won the primary because GOP primary voters find gun control more objectionable than taking bribes.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
In the mind of Texas conservatives, these two things are reversed. Senators are those people on TV that accept bribes in exchange for not doing anything; the state government is more important to high propensity Texas GOP voters.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
I voted for Ken Paxton in the general, but supported Wesley Hunt in the primary. Does that count?
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Cornyn lost because he supported gun control, and this was baked in before Trump endorsed against.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Democrats won't reverse SALT deductions- their own northeastern wing pushes for it.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
The blue tribe is unable to maintain its way of life in the face of the red fertility advantage(and this is independent of any political advantage conferred on either team) without destroying the red tribe's ability to propagate, or it will assimilate their children because people want a peer group. We're already starting to see this- pop country(which is what conservative normies listen to) is at the top of the pop charts(and this used to literally never happen), SEC schools have booming enrollment. The blue tribe demand isn't going to be dumber gun laws or more abortions; it's going to be state repression of the red tribe, and the red tribe is the organizing principle of the republican party. A big enough blue trifecta gives us something like PL dominance in Brazil.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Who are mostly middle class chinamen and the like, not actual third worlders.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Have you seen Chuck Grassley?
hydroacetylene
2d ago
I don't understand the people who say there's no way Paxton loses in Texas. He's very unpopular and running in a very blue year and this is, yes, a red state- but margins aren't much better than red states that routinely give democrats statewide elections.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Republicans have the larger turnout universes in states like Texas and Kansas and all the other red states.
I definitely wouldn't go assuming that every republican voting in Texas is voting for Ken Paxton. I expect a large split between Abbott and Paxton.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
America does not need to, nor does it have an easy path to, ‘import millions of third worlders’ to get lots of new voters. This isn’t Europe; opening the borders gets us Latinos who aren’t that socially conservative in world terms, although they aren’t politically correct either.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
You’ve got the electoral math backwards. The squad is baked in; their numbers aren’t changing. The larger thé dem majority, thé less leverage thé squad has, because Jeffries has less need of them.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Among actual red tribers there's a straightforwards age regression- under about forty, and we no longer trust doctors after the virus. Over about forty and you're talking about people who believe a response was necessary but that it was overblown, by lying media as much as by actual medical professionals, and distrust in doctors is more driven by SJ.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
The Shadow series might be better for him- Bean is too alien, Peter isn't a child anymore, and it's pretty consistent near-future science fiction with military plots unlike the mainline Ender's game series, which has thematicism that might be a bit much for a ten year old to really get.
I would expect the helicopter glacier tour to be hard on the less dangerous end, because if eg unfavorable weather comes up you just tell the tourists it's cancelled today for weather concerns, raincheck.
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