hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I never want to hear ‘100 million deportations’ ever again.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Republicans need to flip six seats and win the presidency to get a simply majority. Thats likely to be a 2030’s thing, not a 2028.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I think the democrats will be too busy impeaching trump for it to come up. In practice, they have no near-term incentive to abolish the filibuster; if the GOP has a half decent but not great 2028, then it’s a lot more likely to go.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
The idea that traditional societies saw anything particularly special about the age of eighteen is farcical.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Texas has a stronger 'core' of conservative interests and historically much more conservative hispanics. It's reasonable to think that they can potentially be won back.
On the other hand, part of the reason Texas hispanics were so much more conservative had to do with low voter turnout.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Hinojosa is a quasi-socialist nimby who's never had a job, I wouldn't be too sanguine about her. I do think she's not going to get very much done- but we're likely going to see some liberalization around pot and gambling.
My gut feeling is that the new Hispanic voters will monotonically vote against the party in power unless republicans can change the election rules, because it's a common enough pattern in Latin America.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Yes, but actually lowering prices tends to crash the economy.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Now Texas is run by Democrats.
Texas is run by democrats because it was a red state with very low turnout because Hispanics stayed home at high rates. The government talking about 100 million deportations might have had some effect there- there are now millions of new Hispanic voters and Texas is shifted permanently bluer.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Uh, no, not really- productivity per hour worked is very similar between Germanic countries, Americans just work more hours.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
No.
This is a commonly repeated misconception. Evangelical support for Israel is premised on 'we need to support Israel or God will punish us, like in the old testament'.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Anglo countries are not Turkey or India (yet anyway)
'Yet anyway' except not in the way you mean.
The American red tribe is the largest group in the developed world which is replacing itself. Over a long enough timescale, this becomes your 'huge traditional voting bloc for religious-cultural reasons'.
And the left cannot simply adapt to the red tribe; their own children are joining its culture as a higher percentage of teens and young adults are from a red tribe background. This part is already happening, by the way- look at the pop charts. SEC football is the hot new trend, even in pretty blue tribe areas. A baseline level of hostility is the bare minimum for keeping their own children from defecting- and as the demography gets more and more tilted, they need to ramp up the hostility more and more. This is structural.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
You think Ken Paxton’s adultery, corruption, and partying with fugitives wasn’t going to come out on campaign in the general? You think Ken Paxton’s going on vacation instead of campaigning would have won him thé election if George Bush had been nicer to him?
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Abbott outran Paxton by six points. Unfortunately, Paxton lost by 20.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Yeah, but given the social security time bomb thé party in power in 2032 is guaranteed to lose harder than republicans did tonight.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Look, I’d been telling you Talarico would win. I’m surprised and despairing that Abbott lost, Hinojosa is literally worse on the issues than Lula or Ramaphosa. But I told you it might happen.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Can democrats
No
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Yeah, Abbott is… well he has an independent politics machine and a lot of reason to hate trump.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Yes. Paxton is terrible. I’m mostly disappointed Abbott couldn’t outrun him enough to keep an insane socialist who’s never had a job from thé top spot.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Should just give Abbott what he wants to use his personal information and campaigning system infrastructure.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
There was no way for Trump to be perceived as good on the economy, because what voters wanted was a rise in purchasing power with no other changes and the macroeconomic conditions mean that's just not in the cards in the near-term future. 'Iran' 'Tarrifs' 'Epstein' are probably positives for Trump because it makes voters think about things where he has an excuse for not giving them what they want- well, an excuse they can understand.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
It is kinda late for an october surprise.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Secular.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
There is no pagan right, at least not in the red tribe(which is the sine qua non of american rightist politics for the forseeable future).
There are red tribers who do not practice Christianity, yes. There are red tribers who are secular, yes. But the red tribe itself rejects the idea that people who are not nominally Christian- or Jewish- can be a part of it.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
I expect Talarico to win and Abbott to squeak by. Democrats in power will push catastrophically bad policy and a side of 'Fuck Trump'. I would expect Texas nationalists to be the big winner from this election- their policy ideas aren't really any better, but the low-IQ conspiracy theorist section of the GOP has to go somewhere, and they hate democrats too much to stay over there(to be fair, the feeling is mutual). Both of my this-term outcome predictions are weak, this is a very blue year and reps are stuck defending some smart but horrendously unpopular decisions about education and datacenters, but Texas GOP voters are very sticky.
Alaska’s lower taxes dont result in lower consumer prices- this isn’t so much blue commitment to high gas prices as a genera commitment to higher taxes.
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