greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
User ID: 68
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Every year people make these arguments about the inevitable debt collapse, yet things keep humming along. The last two major crisis-Covid and 2008 crisis-were not because of the national debt. As the economy keeps growing ,each trillion of extra debt is smaller relatively speaking. It only becomes a problem if somehow the economy has negative real growth combined with high borrowing costs. But economic slowdown is almost always correlated with lower interest rates and falling bond yields, reducing the debt burden. Emerging markets and small economies, in general, have the opposite problem in which falling growth and crisis leads to surging borrowing costs and falling local currency due to the 'flight to safety' trade. In this case, you are right.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
two mentions of porn in the original article https://archive.is/y6sa3 which is otherwise quite detailed
I don't think the NYTs is entirely in the wrong. the NY Post ran with the porn part. Technically this is true: they did watch porn, among many other things.
The stock market is doing great, but how much of those gains does the inflation nullify? I looked up an inflation calculator, and our dollar today is only worth 82 cents compared to what it was worth in 2020.
the market is also up a lot in real terms too. But as far as politics is concerned, a strong stock market plus high inflation is worse than flat market and low inflation. People see the headline. It's hard to explain to voters real vs. nominal. Also the media voter may be more negatively affected by inflation than benefit from rising stock market.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
The Electoral College for example as such a structure...if as few as 100k voters can decide the outcome of the election ,it means a lot of campaigning to reach them. under a mandatory popular voting system, there would be no need for campaigning or politics for that matter , as democratic win would be foregone conclusion .
I somehow find this sort of thing even more annoying than pure Trump bashing, because it's showing me that absolutely nothing will be enough for these people. They seem to think they're entitled to a purely leftist president who agrees with them on everything, and anything right of that makes him evil.
This is how it is supposed to be. the founders knew that many people would not and should not participate. The system was set up , if anything, to discourage participation. Good, let them sit it out. It will only make Trump's win more decisive even in the event of tampering.
This is the exact opposite of the rhetoric I remember from 4 years ago. Everyone was rallying around the ideas that "we need to stop fascism (read: Trump)" and "it's okay to choose the lesser of two evils, as long as we depose Trump" and "a vote for a third party is akin to voting for Trump". Make no mistake, the people saying they're not voting for Biden in 2024 were the exact same people I saw making these "lesser of two evils" statements last time around.
Youth turnout spiked in 2020 because Trump was president, compared to in 2016 when Obama was still president, or now. So memories are stale, compared to being fresh in 2020.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
I also want to point to, well, the state of the world today. Inflation is higher than the government admits, there’s wars and rumors of wars, crime is at generational highs, housing costs through the roof, etc, etc. It’s hard to be an incumbent in the early-mid 2020s; the tories and Canadian liberals and French government coalition and PiS in Poland can all attest to that.
War tends to be good for the incumbent, historically speaking. The economy and stock market doing great , as much as I may hold my nose at joe. And inflation is coming down. The CPI came in great today, although as many note, it does possibly omit hidden forms of inflation. if you look at 538, Biden's approval nosedived around mid-2021 fror reasons that are not clear and never budged, this was despite all these developments you listed. A LOT has happened since mid-2021, yet similar to trump from 2017-2020, Biden has been stuck in the same low 40s approval.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Political discourse is annoying in America because the stakes are perceived as so high and it's like a spectator sport, but that never really ends. Politics is also very personal in America. The 'us vs. them' mentality makes politics in the US more divisive or polarizing than elsewhere in the world, although it's not like this isn't seen elsewhere too...but it's amplified by social media and a 24-7 news cycle.
The question also is what percent of men are choosing to not have sex or staying single vs. not out of choice. In the US, a more powerful legal system generally incentivizes singleness for men, as these institutions tend to work against men and favor women. I think this is how 'the right' works against its own interests of promoting fertility. The 'law and order' and 'rule of law' the right values so highly at the same time lessens the power of average men or tips it in favor or women. Outside of the US, these systems tend to be weaker, relatively speaking, compared to men, hence higher fertility rates. In the US, courts, agents, and police have tons of power, whereas military, politicians, and citizens have less. Ex-US, military, politicians, and businessmen have more power but police and courts are weaker and easily bribed or otherwise evaded.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
But for the ones who were right about Covid and were downvoted into oblivion, why exactly would they want to stick around?
Because there will be no communities remaining by this criteria . There will always be some issue where there is friction for any community no matter how compatible your values are.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
If you think it's frustrating as an outsider seeing lots of downvotes, imagine getting them
But IQ does matter at the tails. If the mean is raised by 10 points then the effect is seen even more pronounced at the tails, like 3-4 sigma. Verbal ability matters greatly when it comes to policy and law. Yes, it does not explain why Jews may choose to get into politics, but it can explain how they rise to the highest ranks, as high verbal ability makes them effective communicators.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Odds are your political movement, on either the far-left or far-right, is overrepresented by Jews, especially in the highest positions of power and influence of said movement. Who do you think is writing all that material: Jews score really high in verbal IQ, even more lopsided than other IQ-subtests. Gentiles I have found prefer video or audio. But jews are the ones cranking out those huge word counts. Similar to how 16% of men over 7 feet play professional basketball, which in statistical terms is extraordinarily high odds ratio relative to merely above-average-height men playing in the NBA, an abnormally high percentage of Jews are involved in writing and or politics.
It's interesting how some of the biggest defenders of capitalism ironically are academics,.. Friedman, Sowell the Chicago School. It's one things where why not practice what they preach. In reality, a cushy academic job writing books and giving lectures beats the high failure rate and uncertainty of small business. Same for office jobs. The actual capitalism that involves people putting their money on the line is much risker and it's understandable why so many people take the easier path. The failure rate is too high and too hard to get funding. The problem is not regulation as often blamed but rather getting the customers and capital and dealing wit everything else that can suddenly go wrong. Regulation and taxes factors low on this yet it's always the part that gets the most attention.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Yeah but values systems can change with the introduction of new information. For example, early on during covid in 2020 comments on Hacker News that diverged from the Official Narrative were heavily downvoted. Now the pendulum has swung 3/4 the other way. I think it's valuable keeping these people around. They were not wrong but early.
No, voting patterns do not necessarily reflect value, truth, or even provide useful information for that matter. I recall recently on reddit's quant forum someone asked about about which strategy an individual was using, and I answered exactly and was still downvoted a lot even though no one objected or responded to how I was wrong, nor did anyone supply a better answer. My explanation was almost verbatim as the guy's strategy. Same for dieting/weight-loss subs where people get downvoted for perfectly good or useful advice. There are many instances like this, where perfectly good, well-worded responses get downvotes.
Not just Reddit but also Hacker News has this problem. Early on during Covid, for example, commenters who questioned the official narratives about the origins of virus and mask/social distancing efficacy were downvoted heavily; fast-forward four years and even the NYTs is writing full-featured articles entertaining the possibly of a lab leak, because no better explanation has been brought forward.
Just because voting patterns sometimes convey useful information does not mean they do often enough to be considered objective or reliable. If people did downvote out of disliking something personally, that would still convey information compared to voting on things even if there is no evident reason as to how or why it is bad, only that it is. For example, downvotes on comments promoting capitalism on a Marxist sub would be expected, but imagine if pro-Marx posts got downvoted a lot too. That would be confusing, but that is what happens a lot too.
I think there should be a delay before votes are visible to prevent possible bandwagon effects but I think votes should be shown to the individual in-real time so as to be able to better-ascertain the quality of a comment. If something is getting heavily downvoted, in light of the above, it may still may me pause and think if I am epistemologically blind to something. A few comments which explicitly and strongly state where I wrong is reason enough to know it will be downvoted a lot without having to see the number.
yeah but I'm talking the typical high schooler
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
I think it lends credence to the argument that most of education is a waste. these tribes cut off from Western norms are able to catch up to speed instantly, almost through osmosis.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
The problem is that parents want their kids to leave and are happy to pay the tuition, availing themselves of the generous aid and other programs too. It's a win for students and parents. Boomers and gen-x parents have tons of $ specifically earmarked for college.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
Online communities are capricious things, and so are voting patterns. I recall many times on reddit providing good, correct answers to questions and being downvoted and stupid/silly stuff gets up-voted. no rhyme or reason sometimes.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
I wish people would post more top-level comments. I'm trying to be the change, but I also feel like I tend to argue too much so it would be better if others did.
A lot of people do not want to try to summarize the post, but just drop a link with a blockquote. This has to do with the barelink repository debate a while back.
it is much more restricted:
Thanks to this Administration’s efforts more than one out of every 10 federal student loan borrowers has now been approved for some debt relief. This action builds on President Biden and his Administration’s efforts to provide debt relief to as many borrowers as possible as quickly as possible.
just one out of 10. Originally Biden tried to invoke the 2003 HEROES act to cancel debt, which was much more comprehensive and entailed an near-unconditional $10-20k of loan forgiveness. This was an egregious arm-twisting of the original legislation so it didn't have much footing. The new proposal is more restricted, requiring 10 years of repayment to qualify, and falls under the PSLF Program, which was established under the College Cost Reduction and Access Act of 2007. The first one was much more like a handout compared to the second.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
When I graduated in 2014 from a large state university (not my undergrad, mind) I was already wondering how much further it could go.
Tuition will keep rising, as will debt, as long as college grads continue to earn a significant wage premium, which they still are. The gap stopped widening since 2021 or so, so that is some progress finally . There is so much aid , scholarship, discounts and other programs. Parents are happy to dump their kids off at a university whilst taking advantage of these many generous discounts. If college tuition were like any other big-ticket consumer good, maybe things would change.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2VANdobQAAVTvl.jpg:large
heavily subsidized items in which there is a the greatest disconnect between the price and what is actually paid, have seen the most inflation
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
5mo ago
those who fail to get jobs or only get low-paying jobs simply do not pay anyway. the bulk of payments is by people who get decent jobs.
Even if you subscribe to 3, there’s a possible justification; the government does have an interest in an educated populace.
credentialism is not the same as education. Below-market rate loans with extremely lenient repayment terms are the only way to make it affordable without having to impose price controls or controlling credentialism. Both sides like credentialism: employers get a large, prescreen population for hiring purposes, and the left gets to force their courses and ideology on the population. So the result is a distorted market.
Tax cuts represent income that was already earned, whereas student loan foreverness is more like a gift. But, agree they are similar in spirit
it is not without precedent. A left winger killed JRK...
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