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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Crime is a fascinating but confusing topic because there are so many confounders and ways to interpret the data. What is not counted is as important as what is counted. Homicide  rates are affected by treatment; if someone survives due to emergency room treatment and medical advances, it's not a homicide, so it becomes either an attempted homicide or downgraded to something less serious. Crime rate are also affected by reporting and demographics. On twitter, the narrative I see now is that crime of all types is much worse, but this is masked by underreporting or crimes not being prosecuted.


the question is also why are stats revised? how does the the methodology work? If the FBI uncovers a body in 2024 but it's determined the homicide occurred in 2023, then presumably it would be added to the 2023 stats.


In regard to demographics , if today's population were transported to the 60s, would crime be worse? I think it would be. Worse demographics and people being angrier in general and lower social trust could account for crime being worse, not that police are less competent today.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


No, Nate isn't "less wrong" because 95% chance of winning and 70% chance of winning don't actually have a meaning in this context. How could you even make such a judgement? How do you know that if we had access to 100 different universes with the exact same 2016 race, Hillary doesn't win 95% of them?




I disagree. By this logic, no polling can be considered useful or skill does not exist in terms of polling.  Obviously one cannot redo the election hundreds of times or split off many universes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They were all wrong, but Nate was less wrong ,so that makes him the winner in this regard. His model was more accurate.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
spreads would have nerfed some of those gains too


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
One-off events are intractable. Kelly does not work on them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Swing states are so lumpy it's hard to call heads or tails on this.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's all speculation. Unless you have insider info or some way to arb it, there is nothing rational about it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Meanwhile, I'm just trying to prepare myself for how much worse things are going to get under the inevitable eight years of Harris.




Political division will increase, as will the intensification of the news cycle, but stocks and the economy should do fine. The wealth tax she floated during  early campaigning, predictably, she has discarded in favor of middle-class tax cuts. I don't  think it will be as bad as feared in regard to the economy. Also, 'peak woke' was under Biden,  whereas wokeness got much worse under Trump. Elon Musk is single handedly doing more to fight  wokeness than even any politician now.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Same for DJT stock, which is surging based on possibly renewed hopes for Trump


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Write it down , periodically refer  to it by glancing at it and mentally reciting it, at which point it should be easy to commit it to memory. Look for patterns in numbers or words.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
my original post  explicitly mentioned polling


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
so what? does not change my point that biden did not see a polling decline after bad debate performance


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
then what polling site is more accurate? even if the model does not work as well or nate is a partisan hack, the data clearly shows biden did not lose approval points after his bad debate


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
He's taking the spotlight because the very act of selecting him is newsworthy in and of itself.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am glad I didn't have any money on this. I have found no one can  predict political outcomes reliably, and nothing confers an edge unless you are an insider.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
elon is one of those people who can make anything work


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
meant in terms of polling. 538 unchanged


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
meant in terms of polling. 538 unchanged


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A good running mate is someone who covers her weaknesses. So this would be be a center-leaning while male.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it would  go down as one of his most original  jokes


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it cannot be worse than Biden's performance.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The evidence suggests Trump is more popular. Trump's turnout for 2020 was 10 million greater than 2016. You'd have to go as far back as Reagan  for a candidate to be have a >55% of popular vote. Most candidates are not that popular, and the outcome comes down to the margins, like swing states, and that is where Trump shines.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
i don't think it matters that much. The debate performance already caused voters to lose confidence in him. Him stepping down does not come as a surprise.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Debates do not matter that much. Even Biden's polls did not budge after the  worst debate performance ever. Swing states are what matter, and this is why trump will win. Her problem is that expectations will be higher compared to Biden.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
interesting how both our comments were downvoted despite being at odds. goes to show how it's irrelevant what you say, but who says it. respected members can post anything and always gets lots of votes.