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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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User ID: 68


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
							
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
completely different circumstances


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The lesson is clear: do not run women


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trumpism is the future of the GOP. there will be others who will emulate his style after he is gone


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The expectation  is Trump will enact pro-crypto policy. I think the probability of this happening is very low though.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
population is less relevant here. Jews have more influence and spillover compared to Muslims. Policy that pisses off Jews means losing support of some Christians, negative media coverage, other ripple effects


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Kamala really was that bad


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
here is what happed in 2020 based on a screenshot of FTX betting market:


https://wp.decrypt.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FTX-Prediction-Market-U-T-D.png


The ballot dumps come in at 9:30 UTC , so in 5 hours from now


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
way premature to concede. there is no upside to early concession


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
/r/neoliberal transformation into just another /r/politics is application of Conquest's Second Law


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The surprise factor works to trump's advantage...the stuff not captured by polls by possibly picked up by savvy prediction market traders or investors of DJT stock.  However, the cockiness by the left was nowhere near where it was in 2016.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It can be modeled as a doubly absorbing matrix in which winning/losing a certain number of swing states of a 50% probabiblity confers an absorbing state. This can occur long before most of the votes are tallied. having a sizable lead on 6/10 swing states effectively means winning the election, so winning 5/6 of the necessary states leaves very little room for Kamala to win. or 1/2^5 odds


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah many people still remember that 2020 surge


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Since Elon's takeover,  building an audience seems to be as simple as being anti-left


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Early-mover advantage of using big data and other quantitative methods to forecasting, tons of positive media coverage, darling of the left by predicting Obama wins and Democratic sweeps of House elections from 2008-2012. He was smart enough to pivot when the left became to extreme.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's not like he has millions to throw around. Nate is smart enough to know that accepting the bet would be Kelly suboptimal


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
election odds   are weird. they can flip  suddenly depending on a few states. It's the pitfall of having an extremely high variance and small sample size


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am sure some hedge funds employ their own private polling services, plus field guys to check turnout. You'd be amazed the depths hedge funds go to get an edge. note how DJT stock crashed 30% on Thursday and Friday before that surprise Saturday Iowa poll  , but DJT was flat on overnight Monday/Sunday trading. I am guessing some hedge funds were privy to those Iowa results.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
2017 will go down as one of the most interesting years in recent US politics. So many names and ideologies competing for attention and relevance to fill the void from the end of bush/cinton/obama-era politics. Neoreaction was fringe, but almost everyone who was in a position of power knew about it, that's how deep its influence was.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Polygon or bitcoin . Those really highly correlated with trump's odds


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trump polygon odds surged from 59% to 66%, but before we get too excited, a reminder of 2020:


https://www.charlesrubenfeld.com/content/images/2020/11/image-11.png


This is why so many people thought it was stolen. Trump looked like he had it in the bag, and then gone


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that would be a logistics nightmare


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
DJT real time stock quotes is the closest thing to a real-time barometer as to how the election is going for Trump. Or polymarket odds. But as for feeds, anything will do. There are hundreds of streams broadcasting the same stuff.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
All i am saying is that elite are necessary. People overreading into my comment to mean they are better, and heaven forbid some  bad people are promoted, as this this doesn't happen for non-elite roles too or anything else in life.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Maybe he does a better job pretending to fit in with those jobs or appears more convincing.


I dunno when McDonald's become the epitome of the bad job. I can think of many jobs  that are way worse ... even many people's ideas of 'fun' (e.g. running a marathon ) seem way less pleasant than a shit at McDonald's .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The silver spoon people from what I have observed are  sometimes more humble  or  nicer than the pulled-myself-up people. People have it reversed for some reason, maybe due to pop culture. The silver spoon people know they are already at a big advantage starting  out in life, so they understand that luck plays a huge role. A McDonald's stint will not change this. The pulled-myself-up people already had stints in bad jobs. It's quite common for people who start at the lower rungs and then move to the top to become detached, not those who start at the top.