What do you think IQ is exactly?
I'd put it as "Generalized ability to efficiently process increasing levels of complexity."
Now, its fair to say that efficiently processing some areas of complexity won't translate automatically to others, I think we can take autistic-savants and similar cases as evidence.
But that's really the sum total of what it seems to 'represent' about a person. If you moved them from Tic-Tac-Toe, to Connect-Four, to Checkers, to Chess, at which point would they genuinely start struggling?
Someone who works mostly with 2-dimensional concepts or in constrained workspaces probably demands lower IQ than someone who works in 3-D (or 4-D!) concepts in very open-ended environments. The former, for example could be a NASCAR driver who just has to be aware of his immediate surroundings and only has to navigate a closed circuit, and the latter would be an airline pilot or, perhaps, the technician who fixes the airplane, where there are a lot more variables at play, to say the least.
Reality can be 'infinitely' complex in theory, but someone who is comfortable with higher levels of complexity and can deduce certain patterns or cause-effect relationships is, almost certainly, going to be better at navigating the world. I read some research a while back, which I haven't been able to find again, suggesting that there's a strong negative correlation between reported IQ and the number of auto accidents someone experiences in their life.
Makes intuitive sense to me. The ability to think ahead and grasp possible consequences of an action "if I do X, then Y could possibly happen, and I might be injured or killed." and to notice when others are behaving in a way that might likewise cause an issue will help avoid negative outcomes by simply avoiding situations that could lead to such outcomes.
Now, high IQ can be hobbled by intense OCD, or high anxiety, or a lack of executive function, and I think that is mostly what will explain the divergence between IQ test results and real world success and status. Being socially inept can also be a major impediment. The slight 'paradox' is that an IQ test is a very constrained environment with minimal distractions and all the problems are 'legible' so even somebody with a crippling mental illness can probably perform well if they have the mental horsepower.
But I do think that, especially when measured across broad populations, IQ differences are the main reason some places are able to create and maintain complex civilizations with bridges that stay up, computers, and airplanes and others just revert to the simplest techs they can operate despite tons of outside assistance pouring in.
Our understanding of both intelligence and genetics is rife with unknown unknowns. Would we still get Von Neumann, Einstein, etc.? Supposing the technology became widely available and affordable, is that a fence you’d be willing to tear down?
I think so. The space of all possible designs for human minds is large, and contains Einstein and Jeffrey Dahmer and Hitler and Mister Rogers, so we would certainly not want to move more into the space where there are more sociopaths than 'normals,' but the space is still constrained and thus its highly unlikely we accidentally produce a few MEGAHITLERS by accident.
The risk of creating a bunch of Jeffrey Dahmers (IQ of 145, allegedly) instead of more Einsteins and Von Neumanns is pretty minimal, and probably wouldn't kill us off, and on net I think we see improvement in everybody's standard of living. And probably faster than we would have 'normally.'
If I was presented with a button that, when pushed, instantly raised every living person's IQ by 5 points (as measured on tests), but changed nothing else, I would happily push it, I think it would substantially improve things in the near term and would have few negative side effects even across the long term.
What this tech sort of promises to do is achieve that same outcome, but across a longer timescale.
faceh
1mo ago
How's that bad? I'd call that perfectly rational behaviour.
Perfectly rational behavior would probably be saying "I don't think I can accurately predict outcomes this far in advance."
So they add in the caveat "if the election were held today here is what the model says about the odds."
But the election isn't being held today. They know that, the audience also knows that but will still read the model.
Without a gimmick they have nothing to sell.
faceh
1mo ago
I also think there's a bit of quandry from the 'search problem' wherein it can be impossible to know if you've actually found the best accessible maxima when optimizing for [whatever you value] or if you're only on a local maxima but a couple miles over is a much better one, if only you could find it.
For instance, if you only ever see big grey suburbs, it might feel like the ideal living arrangement, until you randomly come across a neighborhood built on different architectural principles and displaying different aesthetics, and you find it MUCH more appealing!
But if most neighborhoods are 'forced' to have the same or similar standards, obviously you're much less likely to encounter the variants you might prefer.
So a level of freedom to 'explore' design-space, or whatever other space, even if most paths are dead ends, is kind of critical, and allowing individual ownership (and the attendant creative expression that we argue comes with it) you enable a much wider search for the best maxima, and one hopes this improves everyone's wellbeing.
faceh
1mo ago
But the outcome ISN'T really binary, is it?
Biden dropped out, Trump could have been killed by that bullet, and then we'd have a whole new ball game. The "Trump vs. Biden" model almost certainly didn't include a variable for "the Candidate abruptly drops out" and I doubt assassination risk was plugged in either.
And the fact that it tries to 'call' an election months out but has to adjust radically to new info is why I call it 'gimmicky.'
Taleb had his own discussion of this a while back, and this is the best summary of it I've found.
No Chronic health conditions and access to the best care available.
Jimmy Carter made it to 100 (for some values of 'made it') and I'd not be surprised if Trump is kicking at 90.
I upped by assessment of his health when I saw that recent video of him playing a round of golf.
faceh
1mo ago
There's reputational risk for having his model diverge too far from the prediction market's call, if the markets end up looking more accurate.
And I've seen him offer various bets before.
I like Nate generally, but I end up with the feeling that the Presidential Election model is a bit too gimmicky for my tastes. As stated, he should display some factor that accounts for the inherent uncertainty of a long-term prediction, rather than making confident-seeming prognostications which get aggressively revised as new information comes in.
He's not calling his shot well in advance, he's just adjusting to the same information everyone else gets as it comes in. Credit for the model being reasonable, but what new information is it giving us?
faceh
1mo ago
I generally think there's significantly more irreducible uncertainty out there than we like to acknowledge.
Even "margins of error" are just estimates (statistically sound, but still possible they're wrong) and actual outcomes can exceed them, rarely.
That's my main problem with Nate Silver's modelling.
There should be large error bars around the prediction that slowly close in as the predicted event approaches.
It shouldn't be "X% Trump, Y% Kamala," it should be "X% Trump, Y% Kamala, Z% irreducible uncertainty."
The logic is "if the election were held today then here's the probability." But... the elections won't be held today. That's the whole point of the prediction for a future event, and I think it behooves them to acknowledge that uncertainty is inherent to the modelling process.
If they'd included that back when it was Trump vs. Biden, the conserved probability would have accounted for Biden suddenly dropping out and wouldn't have broken the model instantly. Also helps reflect the chance that one of the candidates dies... which also almost happened.
And if Nate trusts his model, there's a ton of money to be made in the prediction markets.
faceh
1mo ago
I'm just trying to prepare myself for how much worse things are going to get under the inevitable eight years of Harris.
Buy a bunch of "Yes" shares for a Kamala victory at a discount, enjoy your windfall.
I'm strongly considering it.
faceh
1mo ago
Time is running out for that expediency. Its been three months since the one that came within an inch of working.
faceh
1mo ago
Mostly about the degree. I wasn't expecting 'neutral' moderators, but the live and direct fact checking allowed them to speak for Kamala so she didn't have to risk a gaffe with her own responses.
So basically they mitigated a major risk by reducing Kamala's need to speak for herself, and THAT I hadn't foreseen.
faceh
1mo ago
Correct, but overall there are WAY fewer mail-in votes.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/election-2024-early-voting-data/index.html
Goes to my point, we aren't in Covid Times. There's probably less room to hide any efforts to fudge numbers.
Unfortunately, in this election I'm left hoping that the winning candidate is not able to implement their policies.
For the last 3 presidential elections I've explicitly been hoping for partisan legislative Gridlock as the only real check on bad policy. Granted, partisan gridlock tends to produce even worse policies, but at least its fewer of them.
With the added bonus this time around that the Supreme Court has managed to hamstring and will possibly continue gutting Administrative agency authority, I'm REALLY hoping for gridlock now.
I'll take credit for a decent prediction back when she became the candidate:
I continue to be near certain she ends up dragging in the polls when the honeymoon period ends and she actually makes public appearances."
I could not have anticipated this specific string of bad news, but "Kamala finally does unscripted interviews and comes across HORRIBLY" is exactly what I expected. Bad Product with good marketing. A fucking TAYLOR SWIFT endorsement didn't even help Harris! Granted, if Swift actually lent her muscle to the campaign itself it might have nudged things.
"JD Vance, an attorney with a YALE LAW SCHOOL Degree outperforms Walz in the VP Debate" was also on my bingo card.
I have to admit I was wrong on my prediction for the Trump-Harris debate.
I think I reasoned correctly with regard to the candidates, but did NOT foresee it becoming a 3 v. 1 with the Moderators basically carrying Kamala over the line, and thus the subsequent increase in her polls.
But she is precisely what she's always been, and I don't think it is possible to rehab her public image any further at this point. I do not know what affirmative action (heh) she could take to goose her polls, and it is extremely unlikely that Trump does something that actually hurts his standing much, or any new revelations come out that actually hurt him.
Also, several of the various legal cases against him appear to be imploding. Even the one where he was already found guilty.
I say this with pun slightly intended: The Dems appear to be mostly out of ammo. The one thing that is still out there is the extent to which they CAN get out the vote and/or the extent that election fraud does actually occur. I make no specific claims, this is OBVIOUSLY still a close election.
However I also expect that given the intense scrutiny on election integrity, some affirmative steps at securing the elections that some states have taken, and the fact that we're not in the same weird world that was Covid-Addled 2020, the fraud factor will be much lesser this time around.
faceh
1mo ago
This could be presented as a solid argument. Renting also means the real owner can take back their property under certain conditions, leaving you with nothing even if you technically still have the money to cover it.
So you would want to own the basic equipment that allows you to be economically productive so changing economic conditions won't immediately kneecap you.
faceh
1mo ago
LMAO. "We can easily imagine colonies on mars with a significant industrial base as well as regular transit of materials from Mars to Earth, but breaking up the longshoremen union and repealing the Jones act? That is beyond the realm of science fiction."
faceh
1mo ago
I've not seen any recent technology advances in cars that I'm willing to pay a premium for.
Me neither, but occasionally I drive a modern car as a rental and there's a lot of safety and convenience features that have arisen in just the past, call it 8 years alone.
This hasn't always been so. There are still many use cases (mostly offline specialized stuff) that is seldom updated. It was feature complete when it shipped.
But this model seems dominant now, and consumers generally don't seem to be en masse demanding one-time purchases (although for video games this is still a thing).
And from the standpoint of "everything is internet connected and thus a possible security risk" I can see the basic logic of paying to keep vulnerabilities patched, at least!
faceh
1mo ago
I'm more asking if friend A has to move to a different city for a job opportunity, friend B has to move across the country for his family, and Friend C is stuck in the same place for [reasons], is it better for them to have a virtual environment to hang out, even if it is an imperfect simulation, or should they all forgo other opportunities to maintain close distance with each other?
faceh
1mo ago
Boeing having to get rescued from their latest boondoggle, despite that company having more funding than GOD, should be an illustrative point.
faceh
1mo ago
A modern day Tony Stark is 'impossible' because no one person can achieve the total amount of expertise and do the actual intellectual and physical labor needed to build anything really cool and effective, esp. at scale. You can't really build a magical reactor and suit of powered armor in a cave, with scraps.
If you're only willing to give a guy credit if he personally designs, builds, tests, and produces the end product without delegation, then literally nobody gets credit for cool stuff happening.
Maybe when Elon is fully Neuralinked up and has a squadron of those Optimus robots responding to his very thoughts he could go it 'alone.'
But the dude who can identify, acquire, and direct the necessary experts and keep them motivated and funded long enough to build some cool shit is like 1/3 of the way to being Tony Stark.
My point about Elon has long been that YES, he constantly overpromises and underdelivers. But he still delivers more than his closest competitor so he wins anyway. Overhyping a product matters much less if you're the only one who can deliver anything close to the hype.
At least part of that has to do with him putting in absurd hours and, as we see above, actually adding his technical input to the process rather than just sitting back and funding other workers. Indeed, the Principal-Agent problem would suggest that if you just sit back and fund people, they will optimize for getting paid rather than delivering results, so I think he throws himself in there mainly to make sure everyone else is, too.
faceh
1mo ago
Man, I've been a Thomas fan since Law School, and I think what we're seeing now is a guy who has almost all the same convictions he did 30 years ago, but he's finally gotten to implement them rather than just writing terse and pithy dissents.
There HAS been an uptick in reporters and other platforms attempting to make Alito and Thomas' conduct off the bench out to seem somehow abberrant and worthy of removal, though.
Man, say whatever you want about Elon. The guy comes up with crazy ideas that break with some convention, and is willing to stick with them until they either fail or miraculously work out. Cybertruck is having some birthing pains but I will timidly predict that it has achieved a decent level of acceptance and we'll see imitators soon. AND he's good at picking the right people to implement these ideas.
Like there's still probably some irreducible risk from this approach, but to pluck it out of the space of possible solutions when it wasn't even on anybody else's radar? Damn.
faceh
1mo ago
By their nature they tend to be those who are exceptionally good at blending in, at 'hypnotizing' the masses, at deflecting blame, and navigating social environments to favorable ends.
So just because you manage to identify them doesn't mean you can rally enough support/power to keep them out or to oust them. They're the ones who will sacrifice virtually every other value to maintain power, and you, as a normal person, have people and things you value which can be attacked or threatened to get you to back off.
I model the Introvert-Extrovert distinction as those who like to form relatively few connections, but the connections they do form are strong and last a long time, vs. those who like to form many loose and 'weak' connections, and is constantly severing some and forming new ones based on various criteria.
And thus, where do they put their efforts? Introverts put effort into trying to maintain their existing friendships, extroverts put efforts into forming more, more, more and, almost by definition, can only devote small amounts of efforts to any given relationship (although they may have some they focus on more!).
So the result is that once the introvert has formed a decent number of strong connections, the thought of spending MORE effort on finding more relationships just doesn't make sense, to the extent it will take effort away from their existing relationships. And to the extrovert, being stuck with the same handful of people and unable to find new connections might seem unbearable.
Maybe its about novelty-seeking vs. preference for the familiar.
And thus, the thought of going to a party with tons of strangers might make the introvert miserable, while it would excite the extrovert.
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