faceh
19d ago
If there was a broad-scale strategic mistake the left made, 'letting' the GOP turn trans issues into the most central culture war flashpoint has to be it.
faceh
19d ago
Jesus Christ its insane.
"Wow I heard an insightful point on [podcast or 1 hour documentary]"
"Where can I find it?"
"Somewhere around the 45 minute mark, and then they go on a tangent about cat-squirrel hybrids for a bit, then they come back to the point."
In the current era we should be able to cite to any given piece of written/typed data nigh instantly, instead the content has evolved to make it more resistant to easy search.
faceh
19d ago
(4) Ann Harris Bennett, the Tax Assessor for Harris County, TX, apparently has not gone to work since 2020. She is "in charge of voter registration and tax collection."
A woman with the middle name Harris, in Harris County, in an election year with a major candidate named Harris...
What.
Sort of.
I expect the left to QUADRUPLE down on the rhetoric against while males as the source of all evil. The states where Dems have control will probably pass some more laws to entrench current gender divides and further tilt the legal playing field towards females and minorities. They may think they've still got the numbers to win later with the migrant influx.
A very low confidence prediction is we might see active sortition of single females moving out of 'red' areas to blue areas as an act of protest.
I think the main thing will be coming from the Cathedral wanting vengeance, and if they can't take it out on Trump while Trump is in office, then regular cishet males may have to do. Males in positions of authority could come under direct attack to try and replace them with more favorable options.
Finally, expect the media to heighten female 'suspicion' of males. "Ladies, statistically speaking your husband/boyfriend probably voted for Trump, you better be careful around him!" Testable prediction: Increase in divorces between couples that lean liberal in the next year or so.
In short, in the near term certain trends will probably get worse as women process the social and cultural implications of the event. They've got to figure out how to align themselves going forward, and it is POSSIBLE that more of them will align themselves with the right if it looks like the right is ascendant.
On the flip side, I don't know how males will act in a world where it is clear that they're still politically relevant, even if they hold very little cultural power. May be they become bolder about demanding respect, maybe we actually get rumblings of a return to traditional/patriarchal norms. Very unclear.
faceh
19d ago
Seriously. Nothing about improving their social status or helping them start families or boosting their career prospects.
All about (secretly) cast your ballot for Harris and you can maintain your masculinity AND help out women. Also we have no good definition of 'masculinity'.
Not even an acknowledgment of male-centric struggles.
I do not think most endorsements really move the needle.
But if there's anything that might goose male (especially white male) turnout just a bit, the combination of the Alpha Male Stoner in Chief and the King of the Space Geeks might do it. And that's not nothing.
This is almost literally an example of Jocks and Nerds setting aside their differences to support the same guy.
Side note, I have been consistently impressed that the Harris campaign has consistently failed in any real attempt to reach out to male voters by addressing what they care about. Every ad actually aimed at male voters has been basically "do it for the women in your life." I think the fallout if Trump wins and its CLEARLY the male turnout that pushed him over the edge is probably underrated.
faceh
20d ago
Sometimes they are!
https://www.atf.gov/news/press-releases/fort-worth-manufacturer-charged-glock-switch-case
Its a particular brand of futile though because 3D printers render it trivial to make them on demand.
faceh
20d ago
Fine, 15, 20, I'm just saying, if somebody is consistently flouting the law to thousands of viewers, it isn't surprising the state is going to get involved.
The judgment call is making sure the intervention is proportional, I guess.
faceh
20d ago
I'll clarify that in this case "well-documented" means "the guy was literally an influencer and published his videos to millions upon millions of views."
So in a sense, this is like if some person kept posting videos of themselves speeding at 10 mph over the limit and posting them for all to see. If the state ignores that they're almost condoning the behavior.
faceh
20d ago
Hell, a lot of people are motivated by it because a from the outside it appears that many ordinary people were put through the wringer and many are still in prison or will be heading to prison over it.
That was probably the biggest misstep. Making a big deal of out J6 was one thing, but slamming people with no criminal records with prison time reads as pure political payback.
This is the one time it would have been helpful to exercise some restraint and leniency, but it'd be hard to square that with the narrative that the republic was inches from being overthrown.
faceh
20d ago
There were so many other ways to address the issue available, and they availed themselves of none but the most direct and violent one.
If there's a violation of the law, send the guy a notice to appear or otherwise drag him into court unless he gets paperwork in order. I understand the government can't 'ignore' a well-documented violation of the law but we'd expect them to use the lightest hand possible when enforcing said law unless there was some massive public interest at stake.
To make an absurd comparison, its like burning down the Branch Davidian compound rather than arresting David Koresh while he's out on a jog.
From Software
Could count it. Demon Souls came out in 2009, and every game since then appears to have been a banger and financially successful. They get points for being prolific in that period, vs. Rockstar.
I would also put Nintendo in the running for mostly having very well made games put out for their main IPs
Also fair. I'd literally put them in a class of their own. I want to read a book that explains how they have such high levels of quality control for even the silliest of their game releases.
It does make me realize how many IPs on this page have had at least one serious misstep, though.
Now I'm trying to think of any IPs or studios that had a horrible sequel that trashed the series' reputation, only to come roaring back with a later entry.
Maybe Resident Evil? I know that it allegedly fell off after RE5 (the last one I played) but Village was well-regarded and popular.
I am starting to theorize that Prediction markets will have a bit of a bias inherent to them on certain issues, given that the participants are generally pro-capitalist and like/trust markets. This probably broadly correlates with certain beliefs and preferences which gently nudge how they trade to put the result a point or two off from 'reality.'
Polymarket might reinforce this issue, being crypto-based.
And of course - do you think we'll see outright political violence?
Yes. Do I think it will be on a scale large enough to warrant alarm? Not sure. Probably not. Trump wins we're seeing some cities get huge protests, some of which will turn into rioting and looting. Kamala wins and I'm not sure where the violence pops up, but there'll be some.
Overall, how was your experience of this election? Did it seem noticeably different from any recent elections in any particular way?
It has been miserable for me in that the candidates we got would probably have lost handily to almost any of the respective opposing Party's other frontrunners.
Isn't this mostly what Robin Hanson's The Elephant in the Brain is about? Haven't read it yet.
Even intelligent people are still driven by urge to seek status and fit in and receive social acceptance, and that can be hacked by a savvy operator, even if the smart person 'knows better.'
You've succinctly explained my major issues with how the game industry handles/ruins popular IPs and blows up game studios' reputations with the hopes of making quick money at the expense of gaining loyal customers. Which also happens in other industries, but probably to a lesser degree.
Right now I think Rockstar is the only game company that has retained an impeccable reputation for the sheer quality of every product. And they've got a stranglehold on a global, multi-billion dollar market because of it. (EDIT: I forgot Valve, but they currently have a reputation for rarely releasing games, these days)
And even that came under threat from releasing a poorly-done remaster of their previous games.
It also has a reputation for crunch, burnout, and generally being a miserable company to work for, but honestly that seems necessary for achieving greatness in this competitive industry.
If you tried to distill a GTA game down to its minimal elements, a naive person would probably say "You can steal cars, drive them around a huge map, shoot bystanders, fight the cops, and enjoy a story full of 'colorful' characters and crude humor. Also you can bang hookers."
And then you try to make a game that meets that minimal description and you get the Saints Row series. Which really only gained popularity when it took off in its own direction by leaning into absurdity, parody, and optimizing for 'fun.'
And, of course, recently blew up its goodwill with a shitty attempt to reboot that series. Nobody even TALKS about it anymore.
Probably because some MBAs tried to distill Saints Row down AND take it in a stupid direction.
faceh
21d ago
Because they don't have the advantage of an ongoing pandemic to motivate against in-person voting and creating cover for a sizeable increase in absentee ballots.
I think there's just going to be fewer ballots out there to that are ripe for harvest, ultimately.
faceh
21d ago
Yep. I don't know what is most likely to motivate otherwise detached males enough to get them to the polls, so this might be what tilts it for her, honestly.
Although... it is entirely possible that males are motivated to vote because of how horrible the Harris messaging towards them has been. It might be enough for them to realize there's nothing good for them coming if she wins.
faceh
21d ago
I actually do expect a large gender divide this time, because yes Harris is banking on her appeal to women, mostly single ones. Their attempts to snag married women are, as you see in that ad, tone deaf.
And I expect that single males have been driven away because Harris literally cannot try appealing to them as a group with their own independent concerns without pissing off said single females and a few other groups that she relies on. There hasn't been a single aspect of the Harris campaign that has made me, a white male, feel confident she represents 'my interests' or even acknowledges what those interests or concerns are.
(my opposition to Harris is deeper than my identity, mind)
I'm also on record stating that single females are a reliable voting block who can be motivated and steered by fear. So messaging on fascism and abortion are probably good at energizing these types to get out there and vote EXACTLY how blue tribe wants. What is also does is primes them for absolutely insane freakouts if she loses, though.
So it may indeed come down to male turnout vs. female turnout.
faceh
21d ago
It is frivolous, but it taps into a particular undercurrent for anybody who distrusts the government and likes cute critters. It sort of analogizes to the theme of "uncaring government arbitrarily killing things you love" vs. those who trust government to be mostly benevolent with its power which defines at least some of the Trump/Harris divide.
I don't know if Harambe dying swung any election outcomes, but it was probably the most popular meme to arise that year, and has persisted for a long time.
I dunno, the right clearly likes meme magic more than the left, so its not surprising to me they'd try to cast one last spell right before its time to vote.
faceh
21d ago
Interesting, except the number of people claiming to be "independent" is near all time high.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx
I'd say the bases of each party are probably smaller than it has been in a while. Lot MORE people to be persuaded.
I think its a tight race because the Democrats managed to pick a candidate that is arguably less popular and likeable with independents than Trump.
faceh
21d ago
The American left spending the final days before the election losing its shit over Trump calling Liz Cheney a chicken hawk and blatantly lying to claim he wants to put her in front of a firing squad seems like loser behavior.
Kamala refusing a Rogan interview after both Trump and Vance go on likewise reads as "losing type behavior."
At least the squirrel thing is fun and seems to be based on truth.
faceh
21d ago
Fascinating.
Had you heard that the GOP has tightened the voter registration gap in PA by about 300k?
Do we recall that Biden won PA by 70k in 2020., and the GOP has gained support since then.
Do we think the Dems were more or less efficient at ballot harvesting that year?
Do we think the GOP might be more or less organized at getting out the vote in 2024?
Just thinking out loud. Like I said, Kamala has no advantage that Biden lacked, and some apparent disadvantages.
Seems absurd to expect her to do better than 2020 Biden.
faceh
21d ago
Yeah, I do expect the gender split to be significant.
Because I'm also sure a lot of guys will peel off because holy SHIT the Harris campaign has been horrible at marketing to males, in particular white ones. Not sure if that means they'll come out for Trump, though.
There's certainly an argument that higher female turnout relative to male could tilt it for her.
faceh
21d ago
Well, I'll toot my own horn:
Quoth me 12 days ago:
I also expect the markets to narrow in a bit as we come closer to the election and people decide to close out their positions at a marginal profit rather than actually take the dice roll. If somebody bought a bunch of Trump shares at ~45-50% and can sell them for 55-60% that's a decent profit for a short period trade.
Wasn't sure if they'd get right back to 50-50, but when there's THIS MUCH actual uncertainty (everyone has their vibes, but there simply no trustworthy, unbiased way to call the election in advance) then the 'money' has to return to baseline because very few people are willing to keep their funds at risk all the way to the final bell.
Previously I thought Trump had a pretty solid shot at winning this but I’m seriously thinking Harris has it in the bag now, against all odds.
Lmao. Harris doesn't have any single advantage that Biden lacked going into 2020, and has a number of disadvantages.
My personal expectations, in order of decreasing confidence: Trump squeaker win. Kamala Squeaker win. Trump blowout.
A Kamala Blowout doesn't seem possible, and my post up there explained my thoughts:
So in short, she's got the die-hard Dem base + the anti-Trump brigade on lock, but I think she utterly lacks cross-demographic appeal AND has been boxed in by the dueling demands of demographics they DO have support from, such that any attempts to outreach sincerely to outgroups will be interpreted as defection.
Which demographics is she pulling in 2024 that Biden DIDN'T pull in 2020? Make the case for me because I don't see any way she pulls better numbers than Biden. I can buy that Trump might do a bit worse than he did in 2020.
As a Floridian, I could have warned him.
Its not just that the Dems are outnumbered now, they're UTTERLY DEMORALIZED so even if they show up in polls, they might not bother voting.
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