edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
No bio...
User ID: 842
Thankfully the only agency that has ever knocked on my door is ATF
Look I'm giving you this advice under my real name, Bomb ranges are completely normal places to go if you have a Federal Explosives License especially for practice.
I literally typed "bomb ranges near me" onto google and pressed enter.
Sadly I can't be of much more help than that
It typically takes a while to get permission, but when you have a Federal explosives License (from the ATF) it's a lot easier to get allowed in.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
12d ago
I had some fun trying out some of the army field manual on homemade explosives at the local bomb range. (didn't make all of them but made a few of the ones I've never seen before) I gotta say these instructions are dangerous though less dangerous than the Anarchists cookbook but boy safety was definitely not their top priority.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
12d ago
Jake Paul manages to do his can crushing in fun and exciting ways by fighting old people who used to be good, MMA fighters who can't actually box as well as you'd expect Though now that he's lost his 0 (Honestly I fucking hate how Boxers value the "undefeated" mantle so much it doesn't mean much other than you ducked good competition) he seems to be more willing to fight real boxers.
Also isn't it next week?
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
13d ago
Death toll
13k people died this year,
Compare to
26k isreal gaza war
52k Russo Ukraine war
GDP decline is 6%
Starvation unknown
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
14d ago
Yeah it's mostly in the you've forgotten about category.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
14d ago
What advantage does that one have over the actual IED manual?
TIL of this manual. I'll drive down to the bomb range and test some of those out when I get the time. I wonder how those will do compared to IED's made from Ammonia, formaldehyde and nitric acid. you can make pretty effective cluster grenades with that, ball bearings and a plastic coke bottle.
Yeah it's just weird that a war which has 1/4 the casualties of the russo-ukraine war, or 1/2 that of Isreal gaza has orders of magnitude less coverage
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
14d ago
I consider that he's way healthier than the average 78 year old a big reason to give him lower odds relative to his life table, the "significant health event" angle does happen too but I think it still only gets him to 1%
With the election over it's time to talk about my favorite topic Wars you've forgotten about or never heard of
This war like many civil wars is in some way described as 1 major faction (national unity government) vs the military. However calling the National unity government one "side" seems a bit.. wrong. For example let's take the chin brotherhood the Chin Brotherhood seems to be nominally a part of the national unity government as does the chinland council yet these 2 groups are also opposed to each other. Another example is the Shan state army who is somehow opposed to the main government and allies of the arakan liberation army even the the ALA is allies of the myanmar government.
In spite of this being a messy web of weird alliances where everybody hates somebody on "their" side and nobody is neatly in any camp, it's still 2 broad coalitions fighting. What's facinating is how the rebels procure arms.
The rebels use 3d printed guns. They even use the GOAT firearm, the FGC9 (stands for Fuck gun control 9 milimeter) The rebels make IEDs and use drones to drop them like they are in ukraine. It's like the modern warfare meta has evolved to "tiny helicopters armed with explosive that I happened to find" as one of the main tools of engagement. The IEDs used by the insurgents are quite weak, but it's clear they don't have good manufacturing capabilities. Someone should get them The actual IED manual (a note to the FBI I am not intending for anyone to use this to commit a federal crime, this is for entertainment purposes only) This book is far better than the Lame Anarchists cookbook which was extremely poorly sourced and sloppily made. Instead use this guy who tells you how to make C-4 EDIT the us army has their own IED manual which is far better.
As a whole the rebels are actually doing much better than the were in 2022 and in some regards appear to be "winning" the war. However I put that in quotes for good reason. Honestly just reading about the war has been exausting, it's a constant strain of guriella tactics by the rebels followed by Junta counterattacks followed by chinese intervention. It's this weird state that's really hard to understand. I mean just look at operation 1027 A major offensive operation, with high Junta losses, followed by an attempted Junta counteroffensive that started getting ambushed by rebel forces A successful military counteroffensive, the chinese start getting involved (arresting people in the Junta they don't like)the The rebels get a large offensive going again, the chinese negotiate a ceasfire, junta makes some sneaky counterattacks during the "ceasefire" and another offensive beigns by the rebels. It's pretty clear that the chinese were essential to the rebels effort in this operation though how much we'll never know (state secrets and all)
The Rebel forces have definitely done far above expectations. Though my main scenario is that the Junta will control a much smaller fraction of myanmar and then the NYG will splinter off into a bunch of smaller factions who were previously united mainly by their hatred of the Junta. Evidence of the rebel's strength is that they are refusing the Junta's requests for peace and are trying to instead continue the war. But I would be surprised if this strength holds out instead of becoming another Syria like situation where after they defeat the main group they start infighting.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
Yep.
Actuarial life tables give him a 1.45% chance to die of natural causes in the next 90 days, Trump is healthier than the average 78 year old but he is fat and could have heart disease for all I know so I wouldn't give him non-zero odds.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
I mean actuarial life tables give trump a 1/100 chance of dying of natural causes in that time frame, those odds are a bit low if anything on actuarial life table grounds.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
man the 2020s have a LOT more in them than the 2010s. The 2010s were a mostly boring decade all things considered, Cell phones and the economic rise of china were the 2 big news stories of those times
2020s have
AI, COVID and the invasion of Ukraine!
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
It's weird that the Modal outcome happening means Silver lost.
(no seriously his forecast was that trumps most likely path to victory was sweeping all 6 swing states happening 20% of the time)
His other 3 forecasts for most likely trump victory being
Winning everything but Michigan and wisconsin, winning everything but wisconsin, and winning everything but nevada.
When you read deeper into his forecast as to how each candidate would win you see that it's basically "win by a narrow margin in every single major contest causing a blowout in the score"
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
Yeah this is pretty consistent with a small polling error where the polls said it was 50/50. Trump won every one of the 6 swing states because the margins on them were pretty thin.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
If trump wins AZ and Georgia then Yes harris would need to sweep all 3 of those to win.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
So I remembered nate silver's "water level" comment from a powerpoint presentation.
From there I typed "nate silver" got terrible results then typed "nate silver talk" got bad results then typed "nate silver presentation"
I found a few links worth exporing (time> 20 minutes and clearly a powerpoint presentation)
I then watched the video at 2x speed mashing forward key until one of the videos had this waterline graph that I remembered then I pressed back until the start of that slide
note that the actual quote was at 29:30 where He said "I look for fields where that water level is low"
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
15d ago
Nate silver literally made this exact point 11 years ago
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
If you'll forgive one more point of pedantic education: The bullet is the projectile itself. The Cartridge is a combination of the (generally brass) case, primer, propellant, and bullet together, which is what you load into a weapon. So slamming a bullet into a table would also do nothing, since it's just a lump of lead/copper/whatever.
Yeah I was just being sloppy there, I know bullet is the projectile but I should have said "A bullet fires by the cartridge being struck by ...."
start with "Common Sense". If cartridges fired when dropped on a table (or transported in a truck), could war be possible in any meaningful sense?
I figured it would be like a freak accident thing where everything would have to line up correctly, not that it would be reliable at all. I could easily see say a Truck dropping the cargo causing a few misfires on the road and then cleaning up afterward.
So no common sense did not stop me from concluding that such a thing might be possible in a freak accident.
In any case I mean this seriously: Thank you for learning about guns. I think they're fascinating. Are you doing so just for the heck of it, or as required for something else?
I was writing Fanfiction and wanted to make sure my knowledge of guns wasn't so bad that people would laugh at me.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
So i've been learning about guns and I have a question,
If I slammed a bullet on the table would it trigger an accident? Like as far as I can tell from the NRA website a bullet fires by being struck by a hammer which lights an ignition source (called a primer) which then lights the main explosive (the propellant) and which pushes the bullet.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
2mo ago
The main reason I chose that car is because I've ridden in one, it was very unpleasant.
The change in car tech from the 60s to the 2020s is great, so the 2023 Nissan Versa mops the floor with the Cadillac series 62.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
2mo ago
A Compound fracture of the tibia with preparation treatment followed by surgery, physical therapy and 3 days stay at the hospital (pre surgery day, surgery day, post surgery day)
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
2mo ago
If we look at the 3-5 basic categories (food clothing Shelter plus the lifestyle inflation ones of transportation and medical care) we see that 1950 wasn't absurdly much poorer than 2024, while houses are signficantly better compared to 1950 a lot of houses are pretty old stock so they aren't as much better as you'd expect.
A Cadillac series 62 was 1.8k in 1950 dollars, which appears to be about 2/3rds of an annual salary.. I can't buy a car that crappy new, so I'll look at the car I can buy, a Nissan Versa for 17k. My salary as a freaking Gym desk worker is 40k/year, so a Nissan versa to me is cheaper than a cadilllac series 62 was for the average family in 1950.
Medical care is weird, but I pay $280 a month for insurance, which covers things I don't need, but it also covers 3 "prepaid" doctors visits a year. It also fully covered me for the $100k hospital bill I got when I broke my leg. Medical care has gotten a lot more expensive and is one of the few places where I feel wealth doesn't go as far.
Food is so cheap it may as well be free. Famous health nut bryan johnson has a diet that costs a little less than $20 a day. This is Health nut food mind you but I eat it because I'm too lazy to think about food anymore. 1950 food prices were worse but only like 2x worse it seems?
Clothing may as well be free. I don't even spend $300 a year on clothes.
Shelter though.... yeah this sucks. I currently live with my parents, but otherwise I'd have to shell out 1.4k a month for the smallest apartment I can live in.
Basically if housing costs could go down (Build more housing goddamnit) then the concept of being poor would go from a minor joke to a total joke
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
2mo ago
Yeah but for people over the age of 25, many would know about Pokemon, Dragon Ball Z, and Yu-gi-oh. I suspect that many adults (maybe above 5% of americans) would know the name Light Yagami or Eren Yaeger. (I'd definitely bet above 2% and around 10% is probably pushing it).
Pokemon especially is the single largest media franchise on the planet,
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
2mo ago
This isn't sorted by rating, it's sorted by popularity. there are 11 anime in the top 100 on IMDB. Attack on Titan, Death Note, One Piece, Full metal alchemist Brotherhood, One Punch man, Naruto, Demon Slayer, Dragon Ball Z, Cowboy Bebop, Hunter x Hunter, and Jujiutsu Kaisen. Those 11 are also extrmely high in popularity on MAL, main misses would be Sword art online, My hero academia Tokyo ghoul and Stein's gate.
You can easily imagine such forecasts
for example imagine this forecast
Trump wins every swing state but nothing else (30%) Trump wins Every swing state plus some extra (5%) trump wins split of swing states and wins election (15%)
Harris wins every swing state (25%) Harris wins split decision of swing states (20%) harris wins swing states + some extra (5%) (where swing is GA, NC, Mi, Wi, Penn, NV, AZ)
basically this forecast would be 50/50 and forecasts correlated polling error being a very strong effect.
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