ccc
12d ago
More risk than has been currently been taken.
After almost 3 years of frog boiling, there should have been 30+ escalations along the way that each on their own might receive nuclear responses but that altogether culminate in "there's so much US military involved that Russia loses everything".
Instead of properly following this frog boiling strategy, Biden had a bunch of red lines he wouldn't cross and stopped the boil at a simmer, defeating the whole point of the strategy. There should never be any red lines. At most there should be "don't do that yet" lines.
It took a whole two years to merely let Ukraine fire US supplied weapons offensively. This was not just on its own stupidly risk averse but more broadly demonstrates the failure to commit to the strategy, ultimately justifying the use of nuclear threats. The two year mark of frog boiling should at the very least have both the US air force and navy personnel directly involved, and probably even marines. By three years it should've been guaranteed to be over.
But, well, none of that was politically possible, or maybe Biden just didn't have the balls to do it. I will be pleasantly surprised if Trump escalates properly to give Ukraine the aid it needs to win and/or to get concessions out of Putin, but I'm not holding my breath.
ccc
12d ago
This is most commonly raised as a counterpoint to "why are we spending so much in Ukraine, when {pet issue at home} is totally ignored!"
It's also maybe a compromise strategy to appese peaceniks, but this is frankly retarded as peaceniks are never appeased.
I at least fully advocate taking the risk of nuclear escalation, since the alternative (appeasement of nuclear threats) is far worse. This is unfortunately a hard sell to the American voter who cares more about culture war and gas prices. If Trump can make that sell, then I'll be impressed.
ccc
14d ago
Nate Silver predicted "a total turnout of 155.3 million, with an 80 percent confidence interval between 148.2 million and 162.5 million", which is something like 73% odds for lower turnout than 2020 (158.4m).
ccc
17d ago
So back in 1908, when there weren't any primaries, the US wasn't a democracy? Only in the 70s, when binding national primaries were first implemented, did it become one?
Elites always win. This isn't new.
ccc
24d ago
he knows a lot about boxing and MMA and they spent half the interview talking about that
I got the impression Trump was bullshitting his way through this subject. He said nothing of substance, just mirrored and affirmed Joe.
ccc
1mo ago
There's still risk discounting to account for. Even if the true odds are, say, 50-50: to counteract 25m of dumb money, the sharp traders need a bankroll in the order of billions of dollars to avoid kelly ruin, i.e. approximately the total volume on that market right now.
ccc
3mo ago
It really is this simple. The age issue exists for Trump almost as much as it did for Biden and poll respondents were serious that they care about it.
ccc
3mo ago
The Australian breaking scene and the Olympic Games: the possibilities and politics of sportification (Rachel Gunn 2023). Possible that her performance (and attire?) was some kind of protest. Shitpost dancing, if you will.
ccc
3mo ago
Even with a cursory watch of the Olympics, this seems ridiculous on its face. Most athletes still look very much like natives.
Picking a random Euro country, here are France's current gold medalists:
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/nicolas-gestin_1880479
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/pauline-ferrand-prevot_1895672
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/manon-apithy-brunet_1916223
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/teddy-riner_1891323
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/team/france_ru7mteam7---fra01
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/leon-marchand_1909294
- https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athlete/cassandre-beaugrand_1543963
Their best performer, Leon Marchand, is as French as you can get.
How on earth is this the point at which you give up on a 100+ years institution that glorifies all of individual excellence, team work, and national pride.
ccc
8mo ago
A rather banal way to get patients to remember medical advice is to... actually write it down. Memory is fickle and people overestimate how well they remember details.
Always shocks me that I can go for a 15 minute check up where the doctor will say 10+ things I'm supposed to remember in detail and none of it is written down.
Doctors writing down their medical advice also solves the problem of patients lying (perhaps not even consciously) about what the doctor said, which is unfortunately common.
ccc
1yr ago
To achieve body recomposition, you need a lot of protein and a calorie deficit. It's all in the diet.
The lifting strategy, so long as you're doing something reasonable, is far less important. You don't need a specialized program.
ccc
1yr ago
[...] just say that's what you are.
This is disarmament. So you are advocating unilateral disarmament then? Unless your demand is only for your enemies, in which case yes they will of course ignore it.
Maybe, if you can't oust a corrupt president or prosecute a guilty criminal for his actual crimes,
They should just get off without any charges? If your commitment to due process and the impartial hand of justice is that great, you can't turn around later and defend Rubiales' because he's on your team.
I'm not advocating for lawless vigilantism or witch burning. I'm pointing out that one party engaging in power politics doesn't necessarily disqualify their legitimate complaints.
ccc
1yr ago
You also can't point to some mild opportunism and say it delegitimizes all other complaints. That leads to pure who-whom, which sucks.
Your protest is like asking why the USG went after Al Capone for tax evasion instead of his actual crimes. The answer is obvious and it doesn't make him innocent.
ccc
1yr ago
Removing people on purely substantive grounds is difficult even when you're right. Ousting power requires some level of opportunism.
Unilateral disarmament would be a noble if naive goal, but if you can excuse Rubiales' blatant lies you can just as well excuse an opportunistic ousting. Otherwise it's pure who-whom, and no point discussing further.
ccc
1yr ago
Your questions sound a little over abstracted. Some plainer questions you might have:
- when would you pity fuck someone?
- would you have sex out of a sense of duty?
- can and when does an emotional connection lead to sexual desire?
- can one manifest sexual desire where it doesn't exist?
ccc
1yr ago
She sounds like she has issues socializing, but she's also trying to play rec sports. Doesn't make much sense on the surface. I infer from this that she's at least somewhat aware of the former and using the latter as a way to fix that.
Which is to say: she might be more amicable to a frank one-on-one than you're presuming. Given that she seems to have no real power, I don't see any risk in giving it a try.
That's what I'd do. But I also kind of get off on roleplaying therapist.
ccc
1yr ago
The fear of being "cucked" is making some people psychotic. View anything through such a loose lens and you see yourself getting cucked everywhere. And you're not a cuck, right? So all this cucking makes you feel emasculated and boiling with rage and you'll do anything to make it go away, even if it means giving up your humanity.
That one is a relatively insignificant and powerless man doesn't have to be viewed through the lens of a sexual fetish. There's other, healthier ways to cope.
ccc
1yr ago
Left unexplored is the question why? Why do they do it? Why do parents send their kids to idol auditions and camps? Why do producers do all this complicated logistical managerial work for slim profit margins with high risk? Why do so many young Koreans sell their body and soul to this machine?
Everyone involved knows the game. They know it's so insanely cutthroat that you'll never get rich out of it. So the motivator must be something other than money.
ccc
1yr ago
Your solution to being an autistic shut in is to send yourself even further away from civilization and become a hermit.
This has "desperately avoiding facing your actual problems" written all over.
Maybe try working up the courage to join a casual sports team before killing yourself.
I don't know how to answer that.
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