birb_cromble
No bio...
User ID: 3236
birb_cromble
1hr ago
I've heard good things about it, but the synopses I've seen feel like the target market is atheists who like dungeons and dragons a lot. I only really meet one of those criteria, so I'm a little wary. Is that too uncharitable of a description?
birb_cromble
2hr ago
Software giant Oracle corporation is laying off thousands of workers and killing their Texas data center plans, per Reuters and Bloomberg. It appears that their capital expenditures have gotten ahead of their ability to pay for them and now they face the regrettable need to say it out loud shortly before markets close on a Friday afternoon.
In December, the company said it expects capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to be $15 billion higher than the $35 billion figure the company estimated during its first-quarter earnings call.
The layoffs will impact divisions across Oracle and may be implemented as soon as this month, the Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter. Some cuts will be aimed at job categories that the company expects will shrink due to AI.
This may be indirectly tied to the Iran conflict as Mid East sovereign wealth funds have begun pulling back from investment.
I'm interested to see the fallout of this one. My understanding is that the Ellison clan is fairly tight with the Trump admin.
Beyond that, I have concerns that this may be the match that lit the fuse on AI spending. I have spent the last six months trying to figure out why these valuations made any sense whatsoever. The expense profile of companies like Anthropic and OpenAI looked a lot more like Caterpillar to me than Salesforce. When it came to Oracle, I couldn't make sense of it at all.
In terms of explanations, I only had three explanations I had were that I was:
- Missing critical information
- Retarded
- Right
I still don't know which one it is.
Some of you here are clearly smarter and more educated than me. What do you think I'm missing here? My gut prediction is that this spirals into an even bigger flight from capital in the next six months, which causes holy hell on the retail market because the average investor is more leveraged now than they have been at any point in my lifetime. I'm also assuming it'll kill quite a lot of "LLM Wrapper" companies, like the one run by fear porn expert Matt Shumer.
I assume Google will be OK.
Beyond that, I don't have any idea.
Any predictions?
birb_cromble
2hr ago
What are the actual consequences for the world?
Fish stocks collapse even faster than the already are
birb_cromble
22hr ago
But Children of Time is one of my favorite modern SF books, so we're gonna fight.
Have you noticed that Tchaikovsky has kind of collapsed into telling a single story lately? I finished Shroud recently, and it seems like he's using the AND THEN SUDDENLY THERE WAS AN EMERGENT COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS trope more frequently.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I'll never turn down an excuse to recommend Roadside Picnic.
birb_cromble
1d ago
Also American. The people I know who meet that kind of millionaire next door criteria (eg: frugal, older) tend to not get into the eight figure range. It could be a regional thing: I'm in a pretty LCoL area. The people who I'm describing all ended up here because of the nearby college.
birb_cromble
1d ago
Maybe he was full of shit on that one, then. I'm not a billionaire, so it's hard to speak from experience.
birb_cromble
2d ago
I think he meant it more in the way that you can't swing for the fences on day one. You have to aim for millions before you get to billions.
birb_cromble
2d ago
In my own life experience, I think I have a lot more distaste for the "mere millionaires" than the billionaires. Maybe it's because I've met a bunch of people in the 10 - 50 million dollar net worth range and only one billionaire.
Nonetheless, every single person I know who is worth more than $10 million reached that position through inheritance or marriage.
They don't work, and seem to flutter through life thinking they'll become an Expert at Something, but usually get bored before they actually get anywhere. The most dedicated of them might get another degree, but it seems to stop there.
Beyond that, they're insulated from consequences in a way that warps their minds. Most of them think they're quite brilliant investors, for example. Unlike me, they're able to afford big, risky bets that I can't take unless I want to stake my entire future on it. They'll then crow about their enormous unrealized gains on their portfolio, failing to note that every single investment they've made other than Nvidia is down 10 - 50%. They could have literally made more money investing in a basic-bitch whole market fund. It doesn't matter though, because they've staked enough of it as collateral for tax-free loans that they're set for life.
They frequently don't even realize what is realistic or not. I was talking about burnout once with one of them, and he gave me his sure-fire stress solution: just take a year off and go to Europe. I didn't have the heart to tell him that even if I could afford to take a whole year off work and start the job hunt when I got back, I still didn't have a family chalet that I could use rent free during my visit.
The one billionaire I have met, however, was sharp as hell. He clearly knew both his industry and finance inside and out, and simultaneously had the self-awareness to realize that he was not normal. He knew he had a lot of help getting to the point where his wealth could really snowball, and he recognized that luck was involved. Someone asked if he had advice on becoming a billionaire. The answer was long, but one of the most important things he said was that you can't do it without taking risks. He also made it clear that you aren't going to even be able to take those risks unless you're a multi millionaire first. It was a very different conversation compared to people who fell into money.
birb_cromble
2d ago
I'm sitting in a waiting area at my father's local hospital. What should have been a routine procedure was not routine, and he developed an arrhythmia. His wife let me know and I violated several traffic laws making the trip down.
We can't visit yet, but the doctors have said that he should be fine, but it really was a shock. When he was first diagnosed, the doctors said that 90% of patients do not see the cancer recur. The routine biopsy nearly killed him, and we found that the cancer had not only recurred, but was metastatic. Now, he has had another near miss with another supposedly routine procedure.
You never know when someone is going to go. If they're important to you, spend as much time with them as you can. Believe me when I say that it won't be enough.
birb_cromble
2d ago
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the situation, but aren't they already high priority targets? It seems like if you're aiming to invoke war fatigue in your enemy's citizenry, oil tankers are going to be at the top of the priority list. You can't really go higher than that, can you?
birb_cromble
2d ago
I am slightly worried that this money is going to influence my spending behavior
Since you have a rough timeline on when you plan to move, can you lock it up in a CD or bond?
birb_cromble
2d ago
Year over year spending is $1266.66 lower. Month over month spending is $63.26 lower.
Between rising gas prices and the upcoming dental work, I assume this progress will get blown to hell soon. All I can do in the short term is keep saving.
birb_cromble
2d ago
In the specific case of OpenAI, start feeding it factually incorrect nonsense prompts, then respond to them with more nonsense. It'll burn money on their side, and make the training data less useful.
birb_cromble
3d ago
So let's bump that number up - enough senators and house reps to prevent a quorum. That's about 270 people, or 300 total.
How does that compare to Iran's structure?
birb_cromble
3d ago
The IRGC is too deeply embedded to overthrow with a decapitation strike on the civilian/clerical leadership
While I have a cursory understanding of Iranian governance, I'm not an expert. What would you say would be the number of targeted killings before the government wasn't functional?
In the US, losing 18 key people would put the entire line of succession at risk - there's no precedent for who would take over. Even if we assume that the government could lumber on for a while under some kind of provisional military government, that's really only adding about eight more people to the chain. Let's assume that a few charismatic governors could take up the mantle for a little bit and hold things together - that takes the number up to about thirty people.
How does that compare to Iran? How many people would have to be neutralized before their government formally stops working?
birb_cromble
3d ago
I'm going to put on my tinfoil hat here for a moment.
There's a whole lot of circumstantial evidence that Epstein had ties to Israeli intelligence, and that his job involved gathering blackmail material against strategic targets in the USA.
If you can buy that premise, this almost makes sense. The continuous slow leak of the material in question lowers the value of that material - you can't blackmail somebody if the blackmail material is already out in public. The Israelis are smart. They likely know that if they're going to squeeze any value out of whatever's left, they'd have to use quickly before it was released, and make sure that whatever they planned to do with it was worth it, since they might never be able to use it again. A "joint" US/Israeli strike against Israel's biggest remaining enemy in the region would probably fit the bill.
birb_cromble
4d ago
Does that kind of transfer cause a step up in basis?
birb_cromble
5d ago
Sometimes I wonder if it has to do with airspace and access to China from the west. If Iran isn't a problem, a plane could get from Saudi Arabia to Western China without much trouble.
birb_cromble
7d ago
I know there's supposed to be an accent over the e, but I consciously choose to omit it as an insult to the French.
birb_cromble
7d ago
I think it's somewhere between humorous and telling that this is happening at the same time as their fight with the Department of War (ne Defense Department).
They won't offer unfettered access to the foundation model because it's "unsafe", but they're simultaneously willing to give up on "safety" as a core principle. That's a real hoot.
I don't remember who, but somebody on this forum once posed a test that could be shorthanded as "if they were serious". For example, if various left wing figures were truly serious about Anthropogenic Global Warming being real, solvable and an existential threat, then nothing would be off the table to solve it. Carbon credits in exchange for machine guns in vending machines? Let's do it. Electric car subsidies in exchange for a border wall? Get the bricks. However, what we're seeing instead is leaders of the movement buying beach side mansions.
Now compare this to Hegseth. If he genuinely believed that Anthropic held the seed of a nascent digital god, of course he'd do everything in his power to make sure it was pulling in the USA's direction. If he has to strong arm a few weirdo Californians to do it, no problem. If he has to seize entire companies and put hundreds of people under the fist of US state power, that sure beats what would happen to them if thousands of nuclear Chinese murder drones popped up from San Francisco Bay. In his mind, we cannot possibly afford to get behind in the AI race.
But, what makes him think that? Is it Amodei saying things about detonating entire industries every year or so? Is it Amodei talking about superintelligence? Is it Amodei talking about a "nation of geniuses" in a data center? Is it Amodei making proclamations that Claude is going to commodify bioweapons?
Most of us here have some capacity for bullshit filtration. LLM tech is impressive, and by burning enough money to fund several dozen Manhattan projects, we've managed to make it scale far enough to be truly surprising. Nonetheless, I don't think many people here take Amodei's maximalist position at face value. We know, on some level, that the God Machine isn't going to gift us with the apple of terrible knowledge in the next year or so. We subconsciously filter out those claims. On the other hand, a lot of people in DC haven't been marinating in this stuff since the old "I had an AI make d&d spell names" posts.
I question how much of this is the result of Hegseth and his crew not understanding the various silicon valley shibboleths and coded language and taking Anthropic's statements at face value. If I actually believed everything anthropic's leadership was saying, I would be shitting my pants. I'd be shitting my pants, then shitting a second pair of pants, then likely shitting somebody else's pants due to the raw, unfettered terror of thinking about what would happen if China (Anthropic's favorite boogeyman) got that tech and not the US.
Maybe Amodei simply scammed too close to the sun. It's a lot easier to say "safety" rather than "not ready for that kind of work" when you're staring down the barrel of an IPO in a few months.
birb_cromble
7d ago
I love chatbots but I hate agents though.
That seems to be where I and a lot of my coworkers are landing these days. The chatbot interface is like a portal into an alternate reality where StackOverflow actually tries to be helpful.
birb_cromble
7d ago
I'm seeing some reports that the company is also slashing raises and non-salary compensation like equity grants. Is that true?
birb_cromble
7d ago
Was this pr cover for shedding bloat? Maybe
Given how far their stock is down from the peak, and how this cut puts them closer to 2019 headcount than not, I can't help but feel like this entire thing is "AI washing", for lack of a better term
I wonder what that's going to look like in a week. It seems like something should happen.
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