birb_cromble
No bio...
User ID: 3236
birb_cromble
7hr ago
About two years
Back in the early 90s, Aum shinrikyo bought a remote sheep farm in Australia. Not long after, a "seismic event" was recorded in the area, with a few truckers in the area reporting a massive explosion and fireball.
The official explanation was an earthquake. The official explanation ignored that Aum was interested in building a nuke at the time, seemed to be actively mining uranium, and might have actually had the capacity to do so, having recruited some nuclear engineers.
birb_cromble
12hr ago
Similar to your coyote theory, I have a deep belief that there is a self-sustaining mountain lion population in the Appalachian mountain range. I know too many people who are generally trustworthy who claim to have seen them, and I'm pretty sure I've seen tracks myself deep in West Virginia. I've also seen something in Northern PA once, but I can't discount that it might have simply been the biggest bobcat I've seen in my life. The light was terrible.
The more conspiratorially-minded members of my family suggest that the reason they aren't acknowledged is because it would play merry hell on local industry due to the endangered species act. I've also heard tales that they were intentionally introduced to keep the deer population in check.
birb_cromble
12hr ago
There are a lot of things that make me believe the same. The first is that biolabs, and Chinese biolabs in particular, have a pretty bad track record when it comes to keeping the viruses inside the cordon. If it's happened before, why should be we be surprised that it happened again. I think the Bayesians here use the term "priors" on that topic.
The other thing that nags me about it was the general expert framing of the situation in general. It went something like this:
Person 1: I think this came from a lab.
Experts: a bioweapon? Why would you suggest that this was a bioweapon? There's no way the Chinese would have released a bioweapon on their own people. Only a madman would even consider creating a highly contagious bioweapon in the first place. Shame on you for suggesting it's a bioweapon, you foil-hatted lunatic.
And here I am wondering where the bioweapon topic even came up.
birb_cromble
12hr ago
On point 6, I've never been able to shake the suspicion that Aum Shinrikyo conducted a nuclear test in Australia back in the day.
birb_cromble
13hr ago
Up until a couple of years ago, I relied entirely on open submissions and had around a 1:3 hit rate. That completely nosedived in 2021, and by 2023 I was dead in the water.
Given that I'm not working with agents, I'm assuming that my query letter is not the problem.
birb_cromble
13hr ago
Has anyone here managed to get any fiction published lately? I've had a dry spell that's approaching three years now, and I'm wondering if my writing quality has taken a nose dive, or if I'm simply working the system wrong in the year of our Lord 2025.
If you've had luck, what's your current strategy?
birb_cromble
1d ago
What stopped you?
birb_cromble
2d ago
Sometimes I forget just how urban this site skews. I live in an "expensive" area for my region. My house is a basic, 1300 sq ft, 1950s cape cod on a quarter acre, and it would probably sell for $300k - $350k. If you were willing to drive 20 minutes, that much money would buy you 50% more square footage.
birb_cromble
2d ago
Thanks. On revisiting this, I realize that I am retarded and was looking at the wrong graph.
birb_cromble
2d ago
Where did you find 9.1%? Looking at Fred, I didn't see it as reported above seven.
birb_cromble
2d ago
I bought a condo in a cheaper city this year for $500k. It is a 2 bed 2 bath with about 800sq feet of space
As an non Canadian, what the fuck?
birb_cromble
2d ago
Reading the article, I can't help but feel that Scott is doing that thing he does where he's very credulous of the official stats when it suits the article he wants to write.
Back in 2020 - 2023ish, when prices on everything were taking off like bottle rockets, the official inflation rate was fairly flat. Hell, various outlets even changed the definition of "recession" so we didn't have to admit to being in one. I'm not sure if those political moves ever got cleaned up in the data.
He gives lip service to that idea when discussing Noah Smith, but goes right back to it when talking about the CPI again.
Personally, my grocery bill has doubled in the last ten years. My house has more than doubled in value - I'm fairly well off, and I couldn't afford to live in my neighborhood now. A new model of the same car I'm driving (5 years old) would cost $20,000 more. My employment situation feels more precarious than ever, and the horror stories I hear from acquaintances who have been laid off recently make me wonder if I'd be better off eating a shotgun than going back on the job hunt if I end up unemployed. Even the clothes I buy are lower quality and fall apart in ways that they didn't less than a decade ago. Every retail center in my region has so many closed up shops that it looks like a mouth with missing teeth.
I'm sure Scott could disregard all this by saying that I'm making more money than I used to be, but if this is a healthy economy, maybe we should reevaluate what healthy looks like.
birb_cromble
4d ago
Are you getting anywhere close to enough sunlight? I frequently have the same problem at this time of year and it gets worse when it's overcast.
birb_cromble
6d ago
We're then told "mortgage debt has shrunk to just 27% of the value of American household property—a 65-year low". Uh, yes, but those of us who are paying attention realize that this isn't because mortgage debt has shrunk, it's because the value of American property has increased.
Anecdotally, I think it's more than just valuation changes.
I know an awful lot of people who would like to move, but are sitting on 2% mortgages and are unwilling to give them up. Just by virtue of paying the monthly payment over a few years, that number is going to drop.
On the other side of the coin, I know quite a few people who would desperately like to buy a house, but can't afford the monthly payments anywhere near their jobs. Historically, those people might have found a fixer upper somewhere and taken on a lot of new debt that bumped up the average. These days though, they're not taking on that debt at all.
birb_cromble
10d ago
Do you speak PA dutch well enough to know if the generated language is accurate? I know a little from my grandparents and great grandparents, but not enough to be fluent, or judge the skill of others.
birb_cromble
10d ago
Sure is
birb_cromble
11d ago
It's enormously helpful. Thank you.
birb_cromble
11d ago
I'm not exactly sure how to articulate it, but I've seen a lot of discussion between Christians and atheists here where the Christian stance has a strong theme of "you just don't get it". I don't know if it's because the other side of the conversation has a fundamental difference in viewpoint, but the "vibe" is frequently there. Much like the 2014 era meme of "it's not my job to educate you", it feels like it's meant to absolve the speaker of having to explain their stance in a way that allows someone to get it.
That is such a strange stance for me. If Christianity is real, and I could bring myself to believe, I don't think that I would morally be capable of saying something like that.
I don't remember who it was, but someone on this forum once wrote up a long response that could be compressed to "Jesus loves you. Yes, even you, even though you don't think he should." It was probably the single best case for Christianity that I have ever read. It actually made the faith make sense on a visceral level for the first time in my life. I wish we saw more of that here, rather than comments about religion social technology.
birb_cromble
11d ago
Something like 80-90% of republican congressional staffers are groypers or deep-cover groypers
That's a hell of a claim. Do you have anything to back that up? I'd be interested in seeing those numbers.
birb_cromble
11d ago
Why would you be miffed?
I'm not @celluloid_dream, and I am also not an atheist. I am not observant, and I am not even certain that I could say that I am a Christian, even though I desperately wish that I could say that I was.
There is something about that particular kind of thread that bothers me. It seems, for lack of better terms, both condescending and sinful.
It feels to me like many of those threads are rooted in a faith that is almost Calvinist, where anyone who is not already among the elect will not and cannot understand the ineffable nature of God's grace; it seems more a way to reaffirm the holiness of the speaker rather than to spread the Good News of universal salvation that is offered to anyone. I'm not sure if this is the intent, but it feels that way when you are on the "other side".
But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.
Jesus himself said to be circumspect about discussions of faith. It is difficult for me to reconcile that with what I have written above.
birb_cromble
12d ago
Most Republicans didn't recognize her name in a poll
Now there's an interesting question. What percentage of sitting congressmen could beat 44%, do you think?
birb_cromble
12d ago
Has nobody brought up the Marjorie Taylor Greene thing? I guess I'll jump on that grenade.
After break with Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene will resign
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican who rose to prominence as one of President Trump's biggest defenders and recently became one of his biggest critics, is leaving Congress.
In some respects, it seems like the current GOP coalition is beginning to fracture. Up until recently, MTG was a high profile face in the MAGA movement. The fact that she is bowing out seems to represent something of a sea change in DC politics.
Both parties seem to be having problems, and to me, at least, it's fascinating that the problems seem to have a lot of overlap. In no particular order, both the DNC and GOP seem to be having a lot of internal problems with the following:
In some respects, it almost feels like a realignment might be creeping up on us. Is anyone else getting a similar feeling? Are there any alternatives that fit current events better?
birb_cromble
12d ago
What is your own personal risk/cost tolerance for housing these days - particularly for purchasing a home? Looking around, I see advice that ranges from "15 year mortgage at most and no more that 25% of your post-deduction take home income" all the way up to "up to 28% of your gross income on a 30 year mortgage". That much of a spread seems crazy to me, and I'd like to hear some personal opinions. If you can explain how you reached that conclusion, that would be even better.
Are you reading the original Italian or a translation?
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