birb_cromble
No bio...
User ID: 3236
birb_cromble
1d ago
In that case, the gym is the customer, not you.
Cancellation being a ball-smashingly miserable experience for the end user is a feature, not a bug.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I have done some work with credit unions, and I never want to do it again. I think I legitimately spent 10x more time fighting with auditors than I did actually fixing their problems.
"Can your system fully attest X?"
"Not formally"
"Then we can't certify it."
"Can the existing system?"
"No."
"Then why is it allowed?"
"It was granted an exemption."
"Can I do that?"
"No."
birb_cromble
1d ago
Kevin Warsh has been sworn in as fed chair, and markets have been digesting his recent statements in an attempt to predict future movements in the federal funds rate.
What are your predictions on rate changes over the next year?
From my perspective, Warsh is in a tight spot. Inflation is stubbornly sitting above the 2% target, which would suggest a series of rate increases, culminating around 5.5 - 5.75%. Comments from major bond investors have said the same. Unfortunately, the debt to GDP ratio is high enough at this point that there may be a ceiling to how high he can go before the US starts seeing structural problems.
My prediction is that we'll see a single token rate increase this year, and the Fed will make excuses for why they don't go higher. Particularly, I believe that they will claim that most of the inflation is transient due to the Iran conflict, and that AI-driven productivity gains are inherently deflationary.
birb_cromble
1d ago
ACX book review competition
Maybe it's for the best. I've noticed, perhaps somewhat uncharitably, that the greater Scott-diaspora and larger rationalist community tend to treat writing as a sport, or even as a naked dominance exercise.
It's fascinating to read as a case study in rhetoric and status-jockeying, but it's also tiring after a while. We get it. You're smart. You're smarter than me. Your 160,000 word blog post on why mormons would have built superintelligent AI on the moon if it weren't for female empowerment and declining cultural notions of Asabiyyah has proven that you are a very smart and special boy. Good job. Now that you've scored your points, can we get back to the original goal of meeting in the middle and finding a truth that's greater than the ones we each hold?
If you've never read it, Neal Stephenson did an interview decades ago where he talked about the two classes of writer. It's worth a read.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I usually use submission grinder to start.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I don't know about furries, but my editor at the time told me that the "alternative erotica" market is basically 100% driven by women.
So far as I can tell, if you include literary works in the "porn" category, then the average female porn-consumer is faaar more degenerate than the average male.
It kinda blew my mind.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I suspect I need to just write more and edit less until later. At least that's advice I've heard about writing, but I'm not entirely convinced
My biggest weakness as an author is that I am convinced that my output is absolute dogshit. I've thrown out multiple novels that were over 70% finished because I was disgusted with the work. I'll end up in rewrite spirals and give up.
Lately, I've had a lot more success by Just Writing. I don't do anything but write forward until I have every major story beat on paper. Then and only then, do I allow myself to go back and rework things.
I don't think my main character has a sufficiently well-developed personality yet but I made a lot of progress on establishing him better by rewriting scenes over and over again until they felt more interesting.
I do this by doing two things:
- I write character sketches before starting for major characters. It's a pulp tool, but knowing a few things they'll always do, a few things they'll never do, the first thing you'd notice if you saw them, and the first thing you'd notice if you heard them helps a lot.
- If my main character starts driving the story off the rails? Well, then I have good character development and I need to change the story.
birb_cromble
1d ago
Just redneck shit
birb_cromble
1d ago
Graduating class was 216.
I was only there for a year and a half. In that time, we had four lethal overdoses, three suicides, six vehicle deaths (two accidents), one farm related fatality, one murder, and somewhere on the order of 30 pregnancies.
birb_cromble
1d ago
laws against introducing big cats for exotic game purposes.
I've always been a proponent of introducing breeding colonies of charismatic megafauna to the US. I actually brought it up to my house rep once, and I think he thought it was satire.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I don't know if there's a rule for lions, but elephants definitely have requirements in most countries.
Though I think that has less to do with humane harvesting and more with keeping the clients alive.
birb_cromble
1d ago
I don't know about birds, but conservationists in my neck of the woods are pretty concerned about migrating bats. Nobody knows exactly why, but it seems to be doing a real number on them.
I hope there's a solution. I love those little guys.
Not toast, but yeah, I've done some of that.
To be honest, pretty much any POS system is a POS. I swear that the people who design, code , build, and sell them have never actually worked in a restaurant. It's one of the most egregious examples of not understanding the customer I've ever seen. Aloha is particularly bad.
birb_cromble
2d ago
I do software modernization for small companies running stuff that's 30-40 years old.
birb_cromble
2d ago
What kind of lunatic bow hunts a lion? You wouldn't catch me dead with anything short of a .375 H&H, and even then I think I'd be nervous.
birb_cromble
2d ago
I run a consultancy as a sole proprietorship. It's not anywhere close to my primary source of income, but it gets me a nice pop of cash every now and then.
What do you mean doing it for the product, exactly? Like someone starting a pizza place because they love the idea of making pizza?
birb_cromble
2d ago
Oh, I never said anything about writing.
But yeah, also writing. You wouldn't believe what kind of per-word you can get doing werewolf erotica.
birb_cromble
2d ago
That's wild. I don't think I've seen a sign like that outside a farmer's market in quite a while, and even then they'll usually play ball if you're spending enough.
birb_cromble
2d ago
$8 is $8
I'm not gonna lie - that line has gotten me into some real trouble in the past.
birb_cromble
2d ago
What is your opinion on preferred stock?
I waffle between thinking it's a great mid point between bonds and equities in terms of risk, but then I look at the last few market downturns and it doesn't seem like that's actually true. It's hard to tell though, because preferred stock seems like it's uniquely vulnerable to the specific dysfunctions that caused the last few downturns. They're sensitive to interest rates, so 2022 smashed them. They're issued by financials more than other sectors, so the GFC did a number on them as well.
I'm thinking about picking up some PFF or PFXF to dip my toes into this instrument.
birb_cromble
2d ago
Technically I think it's actually staying stable. The administration removed the penny, after all.
birb_cromble
2d ago
After a fairly long stretch of rejections, I just had a piece shortlisted for a fiction anthology. It feels good to have a little success.
It really felt like 2025 was a dead year for hack writers like me, but 2026 might be improving. Any other writers here? How's your luck?
birb_cromble
2d ago
What does 'rgas' mean? I couldn't find any relevant results....
It means I shouldn't try to type on my phone in between sets.
birb_cromble
2d ago
The culture war hadn't planted its flag on my front lawn in 2016, so I can't say for sure, but I do remember that the people in my social circle who had the strongest reactions went on to become staunch culture warriors.
What happened with UBS?
More options
Context Copy link