birb_cromble
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User ID: 3236
- I personally think we're in a bubble, but I don't know if it will pop, or we'll have a flat decade as the market digests current valuations.
- Retirement planning suggests that 4% has a 90-95% chance of carrying you through 30 years of your investments covering your entire lifestyle. So, given that, I'd start withdrawing when I was in my late 60s or when I had genuine Fuck You money.
- I think that current world events are going to hit a lot of lower cost goods. Petroleum products are an input into nearly everything these days, either directly or to move materials.
- I can't speak to Bitcoin. I personally think all of it except maaaaaybe Ethereum is insane, but the market clearly disagrees.
- Is reduced physical wants a bad thing? As I get older, I find a lot more value in human connections. If you have the money, use it to buy time and participate in your community. See if you can find somebody to mow your lawn and use that extra hour each week to volunteer, engage in the arts, etc.
As one further bit of commentary, you say
It seems like I am outpacing the rate of inflation with my investments.
I would be careful with that. If you're in your mid thirties, there's a decent chance you've never been financially active in a true down market. 2008 was awful. It didn't matter what inflation was, because everything was down 20-50%. Sequence of returns risk is scary if you ever have to withdraw in that kind of environment.
birb_cromble
4d ago
I had a German acquaintance once upon a time, and one night we were having a get together at his place. He got so high that he forgot the word for "pony", and he called it a "compressed horse".
Now, whenever I hear pony, I immediately think of that and chuckle.
birb_cromble
4d ago
so now I'm considering my exits.
That's probably smart.
Stuff like this is the same reason I don't buy individual stocks anymore.
birb_cromble
4d ago
The blue collar facade
Does anybody actually buy this act? It seems like the same kind of cultural appropriation, or maybe drag, that Pete Hegseth engages in.
birb_cromble
5d ago
For my stocks I'm heavier into Tech and much heavier into American companies. I only recently added an international index fund because of Hormuz, which might be backwards thinking.
Most investment advisors recommend having some international exposure. How much do you have?
birb_cromble
5d ago
Physics first. For aliens to be in our atmosphere, getting here without us noticing, physics has to break.
The obvious answer to this is that they got here before we invented telescopes and have been hanging out in the Hollow Earth ever since.
birb_cromble
5d ago
Antelope have invented crossbows and IEDs, since the last time they went on safari.
Harry Turtledove has an entire series based on exactly this premise.
birb_cromble
5d ago
I have a few other funds that are flat or appreciating though. I understand the rule of thumb, so I thought it was odd that JSI and only JSI was falling.
birb_cromble
5d ago
Shit. It's Friday and not Saturday, isn't it?
I feel like a dumbass now.
birb_cromble
5d ago
Stories get to me. I've cried at a majority percentage of the pixar movies
This is interesting. How short does the media have to be to evoke a response? A two hour movie can do it, from what you say above. Conversely, a single frame obviously wouldn't because that's what a painting is. What about a ten minute scene? A ten second clip?
birb_cromble
5d ago
One thing that I keep considering is that "bogey" just means that we don't know what the hell it is.
It doesn't have to be flying saucers.
I prefer to think that it could be space whales.
birb_cromble
5d ago
I appreciate you taking the time to go over that. When people say they like a piece of art, I usually don't care why they like it, so much as they can say why they like it, if that makes sense
birb_cromble
5d ago
It felt like the Wednesday thread was getting a little overloaded and turning into a general grab bag.
If you'd prefer it there I'll gladly accept that.
birb_cromble
5d ago
I mentioned a while ago that I've gotten into fixed income investing.
I'm trying to fill some of the gap between treasuries and equities in my portfolio, and so far that's going alright. Calculating whether a fund is worth the risk premium is tricky, and one where I'm currently striking out a little is JSI.
Since I bought it, I'm up 0.38% on total return because of the distributions, but the share price is down very slightly. In an attempt to understand why, I've been learning about something called "extension risk". Since JSI is mostly mortgage backed securities, it tends to lose value in an environment like this one, where a lot of people are holding onto their mortgages for dear life because refinancing or buying a new home might double their cost of living.
I probably won't increase my holdings in this fund, but I probably won't sell it for now.
birb_cromble
5d ago
@thejdizzler @Sloot @TowardsPanna @FtttG
You ask and I deliver.
only philistines think otherwise
Call me a philistine, I guess? It looks like a beach caricature of a dog skull with floppy tits shoved in the eye sockets.
When I look at a Rembrandt painting, I love how he used the oils in multiple ways to create a sense of light - the pigments, the brush strokes, all of it.
When I look at a Zdzisław Beksiński I'm floored by the scale of his scenes, and how they can still appear sharp when everything is under a cloud.
When I look at a Norman Rockwell painting, I appreciate the way that he's able to capture human movement in a still medium.
I'm not sure if I can pick something about your linked work where I can say the same? Can you elaborate on that a bit?
birb_cromble
6d ago
Has anyone been keeping up on the Iran conflict? I've been seeing some commentary on Iran running out of storage capacity and I don't know if it's bullshit or not, or even how to find out short of going there myself.
birb_cromble
6d ago
That's a good idea. Thanks.
birb_cromble
7d ago
What's the general rule for going to the doctor for a shoulder injury vs waiting to see it it'll heal? Are there any "shut up and go to the doctor" signs? I deal with so much chronic pain that I'm not sure what a reasonable person would do in my shoes.
birb_cromble
7d ago
Friday's already taken sadly.
birb_cromble
7d ago
Spending last month was only 2.6k, which led me to have an almost 30% savings rate!
Congratulations on that. I wonder if there's enough interest in personal finance, investing, and what-have-you for a "Money Monday" thread.
birb_cromble
7d ago
Spending is $990.72 higher than it was at the same time last year. Almost all of this difference is due to the dental bills and home repair/maintenance bills that I've racked up this year.
I do have some additional non-standard spending on top of that:
- I prepaid for my annual pest control bill that keeps my house from getting destroyed by carpenter bees, since the company offers a discount.
- I took my brother and his girlfriend out for a belated birthday lunch.
- I went out with my partner and got us some Mexican.
On the bright side, I negotiated a $10/month discount with my ISP. It's not much, but it's not nothing.
It's frustrating that I can't really get ahead compared to last year, but I'm also glad that I've been making the effort. I'd probably be cashflow negative for a few months already if I hadn't made this resolution.
birb_cromble
7d ago
Trump is constantly claiming about stolen elections and voter fraud, and yet little evidence has ever shown up
That's a pretty bold claim. The evidence is common enough that it has its own Wikipedia page, organized by decade.
birb_cromble
9d ago
I console myself with the (true) fact that I am very, very far from the modal Indian, and that the complaints usually lobbed against them aren't applicable to me
Would you be willing to expand on this a little at some point? I've been grappling with some issues around this personally and some perspective from your side of things might help a lot.
When I was younger, I lived in several places that had notable Indian minorities, and that continued in college due to being in a technical major. Several of my closest friends in those times were first or second generation immigrants. In most cases, they weren't just American, but they felt more American than me. They flew the flag at home, played sports in school, participated in neighborhood cookouts (with mildly weird limits depending on where they came from originally), and did all the things you'd expect from somebody who really liked being in America. One of the best trap shooters I'd ever met hadn't ever fired a gun until he got his citizenship, but he started coming to meets as soon as he could because, in his words, "I'm an American now". Hell, in some ways it was aspirational for somebody like me. I figured that if families from a country as poor as India could manage to live the American dream, maybe a dumb redneck like me could too.
Lately, I've been interacting with the Indian diaspora in the US again and it feels completely different. It's mercenary and extractive. They all seem to want to make bank and go home, or terraform the surrounding area into India-but-not-in-India. The families don't try to integrate or assimilate at all. Kids keep their own cliques in school or go to private schools. Community events are almost entirely held within the diaspora.
Do you have any idea what's going on? It's caused a measure of cultural whiplash for me. I can't tell if it's a change in culture in India, or different social classes and subcultures immigrating, or changing views towards America, or what, but fuck me if it's not a noticeable difference.
That's a bold theory, and it will be interesting to see if your strategy pays off.
I'm of a somewhat different mindset. My personal experience is that we're not seeing the automation gains we expected, the friction involved in scaling is eating into the capability gains, and the hype may have been premature.
Current market behavior looks more like a melt-up to me than anything predictive, and practically speaking, where else would people put their money right now? The federal funds rate has been in the shitter more often than not for a quarter century, so treasuries aren't a great option. Commercial debt took an absolute ass-pounding in 2022, and this year's refinancing cliff could hit it just as things were recovering. Preferred stock is all over the place. Dividends have been kind of shit because of the tax treatment compared to capital gains. All that's really left is capital appreciation on equities, and that needs a pretty significant growth story to justify the risk. Luckily, AI is a great story.
Given all that, I've been tilting into value funds lately. Avantis has one that I rather like.
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