Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons including long range missiles and probably ICMBs and nuclear armed subs. They will without a doubt use them in the event that they are overrun on their own soil. Pardon the consensus building, but does anyone reasonably doubt they wouldn’t put them to use both preemptively and offensively to glass Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria in that case? Israel isn’t fighting wars of choice in which it can pack up and go home. There is no winning condition for their enemies, only death for everyone.
ajuuiomml
2mo ago
For now on the concrete side. We have new processes in the works. At the end of the day, new technology is the only feasible solution.
ajuuiomml
2mo ago
I agree this is directionally true, at least in feeling. How true is it if we do the math? One counter example was women falling out of the workforce during Covid. Although that was decentralized decision making.
The question you posed is much more interesting than the actual topic.
ajuuiomml
2mo ago
He isnt bad because republicans don’t like him sufficiently. He is bad because he is uniquely reviled by his opposition. The Democrats coalition is one of not-Trump.
ajuuiomml
2mo ago
I’d need a more careful analysis to ascertain whose delusions are more delusional. In terms of harmful narratives, the notion that we could round up over ten million people, deport them, and we’d like the result is on top of the list. I’d consider that equally harmful to forgiving all student debt or further expanded entitlements when the current ones are insolvent.
In terms of party cohesion, the left is very strongly aligned against Trump but is split hard on Gaza (not in numbers but in terms of unwillingness to compromise). Once again, we could use some charts I think.
ajuuiomml
3mo ago
This is the wrong standard for combat sports. A contestant being both 40% stronger and objectively bad doesn’t make the event safe!
ajuuiomml
3mo ago
Giving Hamas a nuclear weapon would be a disaster. If Israel got word, it would preemptively nuke Gaza and then launch against Iran. If Hamas lobbed first, Israel may choose to launch all nukes against all targets on the theory that more are coming anyway. Surely Iran is not that insane? I suppose someone will be eventually.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Even if you don’t like Trump, his assassination would be the quick path to civil war. At the very least, we’d see a whole bunch of reprisal attempts and ensuing escalation. The response to the attempt is having me consider voting for Trump.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Biden controls the war chest, and second, forcing him out is not the same as him stepping down for the good of the country. One is Brutus, the other heroic. Superdelegate2.0 won’t go over better. Besides, you can’t defect until you can coordinate universal defection or you get punished.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Yeah, I provisionally voted this way although I am a citizen. It’s not just a problem for citizenship, but also identity in general. You can show up and claim to be anyone with no proof beyond a signature. I believe they only count those ballots for runoffs, but still it’s absurd.
Ca has implemented a system that is structurally incapable of catching voter fraud. It does not catch voter fraud. Ca claims the lack of convictions for fraud means none exists!
It is willfully bad epistemology.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
An institutional setting isn’t required, exactly. Ordinary and frequent contact and authority are the actual requirements. We could get those out of public housing with daily/weekly welfare checks. Then, we just need to identify some privileges - could be better accommodations (without a room mate or with a private bathroom) or perhaps, less frequent and intrusive checks.
I’d expect some terrible abuse (like with the old institutions).
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Smaller incentives with escalation would work better. Punishment should be relatively immediate and certain with increasingly severity - as in, start with losing privileges or perhaps, gaining them.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Rape charges would move the needle. The FBI/CIA are still in play and, I don’t think there is any way to push out Biden if he doesn’t want to go. Biden has stated he doesn’t care what pundits think, he doesn’t believe in polls, and doesn’t really care what other leaders in his own party think either - it would literally take the direct intervention of God to get him to step down. I’d buy Biden at those odds.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
This is not a good take as it’s clearly not the best we could do. The problem is the filter, not input.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
I appreciate your take. A few thoughts:
Biden is running on the platform of respectability and saving democracy itself. Regardless if he wins or not, it’s pretty clear he will not be running the country after 8pm. Whoever will be will not have been elected to do so. That does not look like saving democracy to me. As to the side of respectability, imagine the president literally falling asleep at state functions. This is going to happen, and it will be taken as a personal insult because it is! Crisis at 3am. Oh well, it can wait. The most respectable thing to do would be to step aside.
If Biden were running on delegating responsibility, that would be an honest campaign I could vote for.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
Her negatives include public speaking and generally negative charisma. She is less likable than Trump and Biden alike.
I don’t think the HRC campaign strategy will work better the second time around.
ajuuiomml
4mo ago
None of those other figures are subject to the jurisdiction of blue states.
Maybe Trump really is just unusually shady?
I really doubt that. I do think he is unusually hated and the rhetoric we use to describe him is off the chart heated.
Generally, the ruling makes sense to me: neither Congress nor the States may criminalize the presidency itself. Acts such as firing generals or political officers at the agencies are protected and are not subject to review. Acts further away from the core are subject to commensurately more scrutiny. Just the same, the States may not criminalize the act of ruling against them in court and then arrest judges. Assassinating uncooperative judges is not a core function of the office and would be subject to review.
Clearly we need some balance here. A narrow ruling would result in opposing states’ AGs bringing endless criminal charges against the sitting president, effectively making the office subservient to the states.
The peaceful transfer of power will only exist as long as we don’t prosecute our political rivals as such. If the penalty for holding office is jail, may as well just hold onto it for as long as possible.
Winning the popular vote provides enormous legitimacy. This won’t happen.
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