Theraxian
9mo ago
I think war makes for an awkward analogy to the death penalty, but I take your point that cost/benefit analysis is applicable.
However, when I google, all the results I see say that there's no evidence death penalty works as a deterrent.
But on the other hand, all the sources are biased. Murder rates are higher in capital punishment states but I could easily see that being correlation, not causation. I really can't find any good stats here.
I'm changing my stance to "I believe the death penalty is likely bad, but with low confidence, and more research needs to be done on the matter."
Theraxian
9mo ago
No. Although I admit this is just anecdotal and I can't speak for the whole tribe of course.
Theraxian
9mo ago
I'm blue tribe and nobody I know would cheer on execution of Jan 6 convicts.
I'm against the death penalty for all cases except very rare individuals who are responsible for something on the magnitude of genocide, or if there was somehow someone too dangerous to keep alive (ie, the Joker from Batman fiction). I'm against it for multiple reasons, but prime among them is the terrifyingly high conviction rate if innocents.
Theraxian
9mo ago
I don't know if jury selection in a place like New York might be inevitably biased, but Georgia was very close to 50/50 in the 2020 election, wasn't it? So wouldn't it be one of the best states for ensuring a balanced jury pool?
If he is actually convicted in Georgia, then people's priors about Trump being a criminal should and will change.
Theraxian
9mo ago
Did more searching and found this: https://wol.iza.org/articles/do-migrants-take-the-jobs-of-native-workers
It's been a while and you still haven't responded to my follow up, so I now doubt that you do have sources and am now more convinced that immigration is actually a positive for jobs and economy.
Theraxian
10mo ago
It takes time and effort to find good sources. If you have good resources to share, I will read them and maybe learn a thing or two about immigration in the US.
"you wouldn't actually care"
Even being pro immigration, I would want to know if immigrants are far more likely to be criminals or net negatives because that would influence the kind of policies I would want to see pursued or how I would argue.
When I google, all the top results (from Penn Wharton, from CBPP, from AIC, from NBER) say immigrants are good for local economies. I would share links except I don't know if any of them are actually good sources or not.
Theraxian
10mo ago
Any suggestion that a lot of these people becoming criminals and/or net drags on the social welfare system?
Do you have statistics to back this?
Theraxian
10mo ago
You can confiscate the wealth of illegal aliens to fund sending them back.
That would be astoundingly cruel and inhumane.
Theraxian
10mo ago
How do the costs only accrue to the Red Tribe? Seems to me the costs are born by everyone except a very select few, plus the foreigners who are actually receiving aid
Why the downvote @FiveHourMarathon?
I could see there maybe being an argument that a conviction would only change priors slightly, but it absolutely should have a nonzero effect.
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