The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
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User ID: 174
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
3hr ago
Yeah, he was doing good stuff, slashing DEI all the way back to the Johnson administration and killing parts of the government which were Democratic patronage and propaganda machines. I could forgive him some fucking of the economy for that. But not a new Great Depression which will be inevitably be followed by the Democrats bringing back all the DEI stuff AND putting in their own brand of terrible economics.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
3hr ago
I also makes nannies cheaper, house cleaners, delivery drivers, etc. etc., but those services are definitely more keyed for the upper classes.
I think there's a lot more farm workers than nannies and house cleaners put together. Delivery drivers, like farm workers, are pretty broad-based in their benefit -- even poor people order stuff nowadays. Cheap day laborers are pretty broad-based in their benefit, though my impression is that group is more likely to contain bad eggs than the others. (or maybe the bad egg farm workers mostly affect other migrants)
Migrants aren't buying large mansions in upscale areas, by and large, they're going for the same single-family homes that your average twenty-something couple might want, too. So they place upward pressure specifically on the housing that would be accessible to middle class and down, not the top quarter of the economic stack,
Housing prices have mostly gotten ridiculous in the upscale areas, though.
I agree they probably have tons of them employed in the area, maybe some that even live in it, but that state of affairs persists only if they can control the flow.
Yeah, that's important. The US can (or could before the tariff crap) make good use of a LOT of migrants, provided you make some attempt to keep criminals and people here to milk the system out, but not an unlimited amount.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
3hr ago
I don't think they're irrational, so I think the pressure from Trump will get them to the table, at least.
There's nothing to negotiate, though. If he'd cited other countries' actual tariffs and trade barriers, including a bunch of dubious ones, there's be something to discuss. But he's citing the actual balance of trade, and, especially with the poorer countries like Vietnam, there's nothing good to do about that. You can only increase US imports (which the E.U. might be able to do but won't, but e.g. Vietnam practically cannot because they're too poor), or decrease exports to the US (which is the bad outcome)
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
They don't have the money to do that. About all they can do is stop exporting.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
Cheap labor is not an advantage.
Cheap labor is certainly an advantage. If I can make something with 8 hours of $5 labor that takes you 8 hours of $50 labor, I've got an advantage in making things. Yes, if you can instead make 100 of them with 8 hours of $50 labor and better manufacturing technology, the advantage shifts again, but ceteris paribus, cheaper labor gives an advantage.
There is nothing that prevents you from making better mixer than Hobart while playing by even stricter rules than USA as Electrolux professional series shows.
Neither one does a bit of good if I just want to make a frozen margarita now and then.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
A lot of this is basically because we're not handling economic immigration cynically enough. Especially not blue states and cities. The benefits of lower-skilled farm workers do not in fact accrue primarily to the upper and political classes; it makes food cheaper, which helps basically all consumers, and it helps the farm workers. But blue cities and states don't want to have migrants work; they put them on welfare instead, which is ridiculous. (and of course they work under the table anyway. Or commit crimes). And that there apparently isn't even any attempt to keep out violent criminals makes it worse.
I find it hard to believe Martha's Vinyard couldn't absorb 50 migrants if they were willing to put them to work (probably under the table)... what, the rich don't need gardeners and housekeepers any more? But That's Just Not Done (at least not when it would be seen).
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
I suspect traders are pricing in the possibility Trump will at least partially reverse course.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
4hr ago
but it's not even obvious how eliminating free trade reduces immigration.
If you crash your country's economy, you eliminate economic immigrants.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
5hr ago
All your suggestions for the utility of tariffs directly attack the basis for international trade -- that some countries have some sort of advantage in producing some goods over others, which makes both sides of the trade better off if it happens compared to it not happening. Tariffing the advantage so instead of the parties getting it, the government gets it, probably means the trade simply doesn't happen.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
5hr ago
If only Harris hadn't been suggesting price controls. Damned either way.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
6hr ago
It is better to rule in hell after all.
It is better to rule in hell than serve in heaven, the Devil said. It's not better to rule only in Hell when you're already ruling on Earth!
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
6hr ago
I do feel for those who are stuck in a position where their livelihood is reliant on stock prices, but if you're at or near retirement age you should be in safer assets anyway.
Bad news: there aren't any. Cash-equivalents will get eaten by inflation, everything else is going to get wrecked too.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
6hr ago
I think a prototype in the process of being put into production would count. A mere concept car would not.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
7hr ago
Yes, and they're still doing it, making fun of the default tariff on uninhabited islands instead of attacking the big tariffs on major trading partners.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
7hr ago
No amount of "you're voting against your interest" is going to convince Joe Schmoe that losing his jobs to foreigners at home or abroad is a good thing because his eggs and car payments are marginally cheaper.
Unemployment, real median (and lower quintile) wages, AND inflation were all good in Trump's first term pre-COVID. This tariff policy is going to wreck all of that, and Joe Schmoe will be convinced that he definitely doesn't want more of THAT.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
7hr ago
Right, it's been mostly about how he's a fascist or how taking down DEI is evil or taking down government organizations that have turned into permanent patronage machines is evil or how he shouldn't expel gang members from the US or a million other things he's doing that either are actually good or at least are normal bad politician things only declared unprecedented because Trump. Some of his dumber economic ideas (like no tax on tips) his opponents instead adopted.
If the Democrats had credibly run on better economic policies, it would have been a very different election, but also a very different Democratic party.
In Trump's first term, he did pretty well economically. Big corporate tax cut, and while his tariffs were still dumb there was usually some sort of reason behind them. Sometimes he even got the concessions he claimed he wanted. This new tariff structure is just ruinous, to everyone.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
8hr ago
Not 1940. 1930. If we get to the modern 1940-equivalent we'll have bigger problems, like global thermonuclear war.
We're talking about businesses with razor-thin profit margins and manufacturing chains spread over three continents
Ah, so pretty much any manufacturing company.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
8hr ago
Makes domestic manufacturing more competitive.
You can't tax your way to prosperity. If you want to make domestic manufacturing more competitive, you need to stop burdening it, not protect it -- protecting it just makes the manufacturing companies and unions rich at the expense of the customers. And if you tariff raw materials too, you don't even get that; you just have what amounts to a massive tax increase.
The world risks a bronze age style collapse if global supply chains break down.
These tariffs are the biggest risk of such a collapse. The rest of it... well, lots of it has happened. We had a serious pandemic (and a disastrous government response) and the system survived. We've had major factories shut down due to natural disasters (e.g. floods in Thailand) and the system survived. Breaking down global trade makes the system less resilient, not more.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
10hr ago
Yeah businesses that only exist because of free trade are not going to survive
That's essentially all of them.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
10hr ago
· Edited 6hr ago
Looks like we're headed for the second Great Depression. Should make the GFC look like a cakewalk. No matter how many times governments have tried, you can't take tax your way to prosperity.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
22hr ago
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
22hr ago
How can people trust with this level of malfeasance? How do we get the trust back?
In Star Trek: The Next Generation, a powerful immortal trickster being ("Q") who has tangled with the Enterprise many times appears on the bridge of the Enterprise. He tells a story of having his powers stripped for his sins and begs the crew's help. The crew are, understandably, skeptical. He plaintively claims to be mortal and asks what he can do to convince the crew that he is indeed mortal. The Enterprise's Klingon security officer has the answer:
Die.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
"I'm in danger from one gang because I'm a member of another gang" is a cheeky reason to demand asylum, but I don't think it's actually valid. And Garcia claims not to be a member of MS-13.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
In fact, this isn't true; lots of cases (usually involving traffic stops, because that's where it comes up most) say a Miranda warning isn't required in these edge cases. But even if it were: easy solution, mirandize the guy first.
Have you ever had interrogation techniques used on you, e.g. Reid Technique? They work really well... innocent or guilty. And there's always the old "keep them in an interrogation room for hours on end and tell the they can go home once they've confessed" thing. The cops have all the advantages, having them give a warning in the beginning that you can, in fact, keep your mouth shut isn't unreasonable.
They can, in real terms. In nominal terms, people will tend to stay in one place when the market is bad, reducing supply and providing a lot of resistance to price drops. They do happen of course, as in the GFC.
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