TIRM
2d ago
Nah. I'm rock solid correct. Some people are just terrible at judging risks. Europeans on bicycles especially.
TIRM
8d ago
Secretly transitioning as in a secret from the parents. How could a socially transitioned child not be aware of their new name and gender presentation?
it's not like kids are getting surgery
Some minors get sex reassignment surgery. We've moved past "that never happens" to "its not that common". Next stage is "of course that happens and its a good thing". And of course there are advocates for more minor sex reassignment surgery. Such as the leaked documents from Biden's Department of Health and Human Services.
Or much more commonly these kids get irreversible and badly harmful puberty blockers. A parent failing to support this harm of their child can lose custody in some locales.
TIRM
9d ago
schools are forcing uninterested, non-consenting children into transition
I certainly never claimed that, so I won't be championing it. You may not take my statements, make an exaggerated looney version of them and then foist that wild view onto me.
Whether these are valid medical treatments for minors or horrific butchery that we will look back on like elective lobotomies for strange children is the matter under dispute.
TIRM
9d ago
Some schools secretly socially transition children. Some locales will take children out of parents' custody if they fail to support transition. This is not all right wing paranoia.
TIRM
10d ago
Supposedly Rubio was the other top pick for VP. Vance got that, Rubio is given the alternative prize of Secretary of State. Rubio wanted to quit the senate previously but other Republicans convinced him to stay. Here's his chance to bounce and do something else.
I think perhaps you overestimate Trump's animosity towards "Little Marco, thirstiest man you've ever seen". Trump crushed him in the 2016 primary and now wants his support at the highest level. I don't think there is a feeling of animosity or contradiction inside of Trump.
Musk joked that either Trump would win or Musk would be imprisoned. It's a joke. But novel legal theories worked once to secure dozens of felony convictions. Why not a second pass?
TIRM
10d ago
Geeze. You weren't kidding about neoliberal being hysterical today. They're in rare form. I expect this from /r/politics and their ilk. I thought neoliberal thought they were high brow.
TIRM
10d ago
"nah, it just feels wrong"
Perfectly justifiable. If you prefer: "My priors of this being true are so enormously low and a single extreme outlier poll is such a small unit of evidence, so I refuse to significantly update my belief regarding this. The likelihood that a single poll is wrong is far greater than the likelihood that my entire understanding of the electorate is this far off. By far greatest likelihood is a one-off polling error. Miniscule likelihood it is correct and I am demented and detached from reality in my understanding of Trump's support."
Luckily our brains have excellent heuristics that approximate all this. So at a glance you can easily say "Smollett is a liar, no way that happened" or "Nah, that poll is just wrong". And you sound jivey talking about priors and weights of evidence if you simply state the obvious likelihood delivered to you by the sophisticated mechanisms in your brain.
TIRM
12d ago
I listened to a bunch of recent episodes and they are unusually thoughtful and smug DNC parrots. They are cheerleader partisans, not bold innovators.
I haven't listened very much and maybe I'm missing some older contrarian episodes. Without bothering to listen you already know their views: median Democratic consensus.
I'll copy my unrelated comment from yesterday:
I listened to Pod Save America after the election and they were saying this election shows us that we need to get money out of politics. I immediately thought they were talking nonsense since they are the side that spends the most by far. These are smart, informed, experienced Democratic operatives mindlessly parroting "money in politics" talking points when the exact opposite is clearly true.
They're reflective, thoughtful, capable of decoupling and also blind partisans shutting off their brains and reciting approved party phrases when they need to. Which is much better than the norm. If you want to hear the smuggest Obama staffers cheerlead for Democrats, this is the peak experience. They are really quite full of themselves. Some partisan brainrot comes with the package.
TIRM
12d ago
Okay. I was thinking about "the Jewish question" in the historical sense. As in: "Clearly Jews are not going to be allowed to exist moving forward. So, shall we integrate them so that they are no longer Jews, or just dispose of them like vermin?"
As best I know modern people who seek answers to the Jewish Question are not wondering how much more integration would improve Jews.
If Butlerian meant a broad reasonable question about their commitment to Israel, I didn't notice it in the historical reference to the Jewish Question.
TIRM
12d ago
Why would anyone expect them to follow fringe alt-right antisemitism? They are normie Obama staffers.
TIRM
12d ago
"You are only adding larger sized shells to the aquarium. How does this help the medium sized and small sized hermit crabs?"
Seems to be many people's actual thoughts regarding housing.
TIRM
12d ago
There were prominent calls for faithless in 2016. And 66% of polled Democrats thought Russia changed votes in the 2016 election
Trump is an election denier. He's in good company with many Democrats.
TIRM
12d ago
Reddit mods locking threads and deleting posts of wrongthink because "y'all can't control yourselves".
TitaniumButterfly wonders why 'hysterical' is not being treated like 'retarded'.
TIRM
13d ago
I listened to Pod Save America after the election and they were saying this election shows us that we need to get money out of politics. I immediately thought they were talking nonsense since they are the side that spends the most by far. These are smart, informed, experienced Democratic operatives mindlessly parroting "money in politics" talking points when the exact opposite is clearly true.
Trump at 70% chance of winning according to NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html#
I wish I had NYT needle values over time for 2016 and 2020.
Edit: 73% at 9PM central time.
80% at 9:20PM. Redditors dutifully explaining the "red mirage". Which might be real. But what a swing that would be.
88% at 9:41PM. I have a sin to confess. I excessively enjoy reading doomers on reddit. Blood is in the water right now. Any election megathread. Just saw a transwoman say she'll be killed soon. She won't of course. But that gives you a reading on their temperature level.
90% as of 11:10 central time.
93% at midnight. I gotta drive my kid to school then go to work tomorrow. No more updatesfrom me. But unless ballot harvestors find many many trucks of Harris ballots, I don't suppose it matters.
The needle gets stuck at ">95%" Trump as of 12:20 or so. I suppose we're done here.
Stranger yet, best as we can tell, there is no such thing as squirrel to human rabies transmission. That's just not a thing.
TIRM
19d ago
As a great sage wrote:
It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers−out of unorthodoxy.
TIRM
19d ago
This guy says law enforcement spent five hours ransacking his property. And destroyed some of it such as his pet squirrel. That's the problem here. The anarchotyranny of a government with no time or resources to deal with shoplifting and car break ins, but apparently lots of law enforcement resources to crack down on unregistered squirrel owners.
TIRM
20d ago
Yes, that's what the Heritage Foundation believes. That's also what the Catholic Church believes. Those organizations are not the Republican party or the Trump administration.
If Trump is elected, there will not be a national ban on birth control. Despite the idle wishing by the Heritage Foundation.
I stand by this prediction and discount anyone who goes against it as having lost touch with reality.
TIRM
20d ago
Are sexless 20-somethings with nose rings shitting themselves over having to carry a purely hypothetical baby to term?
As best I can tell yes. And they aren't perfectly sexless. There is some hypothetical possibility that someday they would want an abortion. They could easily obtain one of course.
But yes fear mongering about a hypothetical national abortion ban forcing them to carry a hypothetical baby to term seems popular.
In general I recommend The Rest is History.
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