SigurdsSilverSword
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User ID: 3337
SigurdsSilverSword
2d ago
While the Giants and Raiders were both not great with their star running backs last year (although both had seen average-to-good offenses built around them in the not-so-distant past), both have seen significantly worse results since letting them go.
The Giants with a healthy Saquon (2018, 2022) were an extremely mid offense, averaging the exact midpoint in the league (16.5) in points (16, 15) and yards (17, 18). The Giants with an unhealthy Barkley (2020, 2021, 2023) were one of the worst offenses in the league in both points scored (31, 31, 30) and yards (31, 31, 29). Without Barkley this year they've scored the fewest points in the league and are trending in the wrong direction.
The Raiders are less obvious since Carr's departure had more of an effect, but this is the worst year they've had offensively since drafting Jacobs (even comparing the past two Carr-less years, they've clearly regressed offensively this year), and have had noticeably worse RB play even compared to Jacobs' poor last season in black and silver. He actually led the team in AV (football-reference's attempt to make a WAR for football) in 2022, for whatever that's worth (not a ton, in my opinion).
Even a very good running back will heavily rely on their offensive line, and a bad offensive line will make even the best ones have mediocre results, but the position in general has been overly devalued if you ask me - a good running back can still be the focal point of a successful offense.
SigurdsSilverSword
20d ago
Qui uincit non est uictor nisi uictus fatetur.
Re: Daniel Jones cap manipulation, if they benched him for the season and released him next year with a post-June 1st designation they would be able to manipulate his dead cap situation; this is what the Broncos did with Russ, and why they didn't release him until the new league year started in March instead of when they benched him late last year. The downside to that is they would have to carry his full cap hit as if he wasn't released until June 1st*, so it might hamper their free agency plans to do it that way, but it would mean they can split his dead cap over 2025 and 2026 instead of just in 2025. His dead cap isn't insurmountable, though, so it isn't that big a deal to carry it all next year. (For comparison's sake, Russ was designated a post-June 1 cut by the Broncos; this didn't impact their FA since his dead cap this year was exactly the same as a post-June 1 cut as it would have been if he was on the roster, but by cutting him as a post-June 1st in March instead of releasing him in December his dead cap is spread over this year and next instead of taking a full $85MM dead cap hit this year, which would have made it almost impossible to field a competitive team).
The manipulation is that by benching him it makes him drastically less likely to get seriously hurt and activate the injury guarantee, which would guarantee him an additional $23MM next year. This is why they benched him in the first place (and why Russ was benched, and why the Raiders benched Derek Carr in 2022); they didn't want to be stuck paying him even more next year when they want to move on from him. Moving to Tommy Devito instead of Drew Lock, who was the No. 2 all year, makes it even more suspicious that this was not a move based on winning more football games, and the Giants' locker room mostly seems to agree with me (they sure played like it this weekend).
'* - this used to be the case; as far as I know it still is, although they've been changing some of these cap rules in the past couple years so I'm not 100% certain.
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