SigurdsSilverSword
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User ID: 3337
What a regular season! It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Well, that's not entirely true - as a Jets fan it was pretty much all the worst of times after boat racing the Pats in week 3 (though at least my fantasy teams did well?). But now we're onto the teams that aren't abominable dumpster fires, at least most of the time. Spreads are taken from my (just for fun) Yahoo pick'em league - I don't gamble but it gives a good indication of what people are thinking for the matchups. (for those who don't know, spreads are effectively the margin by which teams are expected to win. If a spread is -7 for example, a team has to win by more than 7 points to win the bet. Negative numbers mean the team has to win by more than that amount, while a positive number means a team has to either win or lose by less than that amount. If the team wins by exactly the amount, its a push and the bet is returned.) Many thanks for the format!
Kansas City Chiefs: They Can't Keep Getting Away With It, and yet somehow they do. After completely laying down against the Broncos (even compared to other teams that rested their starters), the Chiefs have shown that they are not only the best at winning; they're also the best at tanking (RIP to the Bengals' playoff hopes, and may their defense be executed for crimes against humanity). Seriously, all the teams that blew their chances at the #1 overall pick should take some notes (Giants/Raiders/Pats, I'm talking to you). Similar to the Steelers of a few years ago being "the worst 10-1 team of all time", the Chiefs' performance this season has to put them as one of if not the worst 15-1 team of all time (excluding the last game). Time and time again they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat (as opposed to my Jets, who remained the experts at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory during the most depressing season of my fandom). Between their overwhelming dominance of the league by the slimmest of margins the past couple years (and the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship that still sticks in the craw of many for some reason), most fans of the NFL are sick of the Chiefs - but they just keep winning, and are my favorites for the Super Bowl until someone finally manages to slay the dragon (and even then, they better make sure it's dead - I'm not counting them out until the clock hits zeroes).
Detroit Lions: After a dominating second half against their surprising contender, the Lions finally managed to secure the top spot in their best season since the merger (at least). No one needed the first-round bye more than the heavily injured Lions, who hope to have star running back David Montgomery back for the playoffs. If you found it hard to notice his absence, blame other star running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who showed himself more than capable of handling the load in Montgomery's absence. The Lions are stacked throughout the offensive roster, with top pass catchers, a kick-ass offensive line, and the best running back room in the league by a wide margin, led by the resurgent Jared Goff. Their defense has been absolutely crushed by injuries, but looked strong against the potent Vikings offense last week. If not for the Chiefs' devil magic, the Lions would be my favorites for the Super Bowl.
Wildcard Games:
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Houston Texans (Sat, 4:30 ET): The Houston Texans and hosting the early Saturday wild card timeslot: name a more iconic duo, I'll wait. Seriously, the Texans have played in this time slot literally every time they've made the playoffs. In what was expected by many to be a rebuilding year in their first year with new coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have exceeded expectations to get this far in a tough division featuring two other playoff teams. They face off against the Texans, who despite winning what remains the worst division in the league did not look particularly convincing doing it. Last year's rookie phenom CJ Stroud took a step backwards this year despite the addition of talented WR Stefon Diggs, even before Diggs tore his ACL halfway through the year. As a whole, after exceeding expectations with both a rookie head coach and QB last year the entire team seems to have hit a sophomore slump. They are still the more talented team, but Harbaugh is a damn good coach who's been here before, and the Chargers have played above their level all season while the Texans haven't looked good in over a month. I would take the Chargers to win, and even with the point spread the Chargers would still be my choice.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Sat, 8:00 ET): In their third matchup of the year, these two will face off in Baltimore once again, where the Ravens handled the Steelers just three weeks ago. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, with the Ravens defense finding itself after a rough first half and the Steelers offense collapsing after a strong start with Russ. In fact, the Steelers enter the postseason on a four-game losing streak after a brutal schedule to end the season, facing the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals in succession. Lamar and the Ravens have not been able to elevate their play in the postseason, and Ravens-Steelers games have tended to be close slugfests throughout their history. This year however, the Steelers seem to be just about out of gas, while the Ravens are hitting their stride. I expect the Ravens to come out on top, while the Yinzers continue to question their team's inability to make the divisional round (if they'd like to move on from Tomlin as they seem to argue for every year, I'd take him on the Jets in a heartbeat). Against the spread, 10 points is a lot, particularly for a divisional playoff game; while I expect the Ravens to win, I would probably lean towards grabbing the points.
Denver Broncos (+9) @ Buffalo Bills (Sun, 1:00 ET): The Broncos demolished the preseason-level Chiefs last week to squeeze out the last playoff spot. Their reward is to face the Buffalo Bills and likely MVP Josh Allen (I would give it to him, personally). The Bills have had some of the most impressive wins of the season this year, handing the Chiefs their only full-blooded loss and beating the other #1 seed Lions in a thriller. However, they have a clear Achille's heel, and in their case it's less a heel than it is an Achille's left arm: the Bills' defense has been unable to stop anyone except my inept Jets all season. They lost to the Rams despite Josh scoring six touchdowns, and gave up six TDs to the Lions in that thrilling game. The Broncos have a competent-if-not-awe-inspiring offence, and a more-than-competent defense; the Bills D is probably the worst unit in this game. Even so, it's hard to pick against Josh Allen here; he's been able to carry them this far, and the Broncos have generally not looked good against other good teams this year. Additionally, their best player on defense, cornerback Pat Surtain, will have a limited impact in this game as the Bills don't have a true #1 WR for him to erase - Amari Cooper is generally considered their best, but his impact has been limited since he came over from Cleveland in a midseason trade; their most-used receivers have been third-year slot man Khalil Shakir (by targets and yards) and Eagles castoff Mack Hollins (by TDs), neither of whom are particularly frightening. No one on the Bills reached 1000 yards receiving, and Hollins led them in TDs with all of five. They barely even had a 1000-yard rusher, with James Cook managing only 9 past that mark (though he did lead the league with 16 rushing TDs). This team has been nothing but Josh Allen, and I have to back him to carry them through this matchup with a decent, but not inspiring Broncos team. With the points, however, 9 is a lot to give up for a team that doesn't have a strong defense; I would likely take the Broncos to cover.
Green Bay Packers (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, 4:30 ET): In a rematch of the second game of the season, a green team with a 26-year-old mobile quarterback, a strong offensive line, an overload of weapons in the passing game and a rejuvenated veteran RB in his first year on a good team faces off against a green team with a 26-year old mobile quarterback (fun fact, Hurts is about two months older than Jordan Love), a strong offensive line, an overload of weapons in the passing game and a rejuvenated veteran RB in his first year on a good team. While that's a bit reductive, the two teams do legitimately have a number of parallels; the Eagles are (imo) basically a better version of the Packers. The Packers have 4 #2-quality receivers (or did, before Christian Watson went down), looking to overwhelm you with options; the Eagles have 2 #1 quality WRs, forcing you to choose which one to focus on while the other beats your worst corner. The Packers have a continuous tradition of having a top-10 offensive line; the Eagles have a continuous tradition of having a top-3 offensive line. The Packers went out and got Josh Jacobs in free agency coming off a down year in a terrible organization; the Eagles went out and got Saquon. Everything the Packers do, the Eagles seem to do better. Both have solid defenses, but the Eagles is (again) just a better one than the Packers. They are the better team on paper, and should win this game. The one place the Eagles have a disadvantage, in my opinion, is coaching: I would rather have Matt LaFleur than the oft-maligned Nick Sirianni. Unfortunately for them, coaching is one of the more significant areas to have that disadvantage; that said, they're so talented it's hard for me to really argue the other way. I'd take the Eagles to win the game and cover the spread.
Washington Commies (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sun, 8:00 ET): In one of the biggest surprises of the season, the Commies rode rookie QB Jayden Daniels and new HC Dan Quinn to the playoffs after being one of the worst teams in the league last year. Although they did have to pull out some improbable wins (including a Hail Mary) to get here, they are by no means undeserving; it was clear pretty early that they were legitimately a good team, and other than when Daniels was limited with a rib injury they looked good pretty much the whole season through. The Bucs had an interesting season, handing the Eagles their only real ass-kicking of the year but playing below-.500 during their rough early schedule before rolling through the easier back half to clinch the (weak) NFC South once again behind touchdown king Baker Mayfield, 11-time 1000-yard receiver Mike Evans, and a combo of WR Chris Godwin (before a season-ending knee injury) and rookies Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan, who took off after Godwin went down. I would back the Bucs, but this is probably the weakest matchup in the NFC, only rivalled by Chargers-Texans for weakest overall.
Minnesota Vikings (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams (Mon, 8:00 ET): After a horrific offseason featuring (among other things) the season-ending injury of first-round rookie QB JJ McCarthy and the death of fourth-round rookie DB Khyree Jackson (car accident), it's safe to say things were not looking up for the Vikings entering the year. While they still featured All-World WR Justin Jefferson and a good OL, their offseason additions of aging and injury-prone RB Aaron Jones and retread QB Sam Darnold (who was expected to be replaced at some point by McCarthy before his knee went pop) on one-year contracts did not inspire confidence that this team could improve on the one that lost QB Kirk Cousins to a monster contract from the Falcons. In a remarkable turnaround, probable Coach of the Year Kevin O'Connell rallied the team and they came out firing, winning nine straight games after losing to the eventual #1 seed Lions in week 1. Sam Darnold turned in by far the best year of his career, throwing for over 4000 yards and 35 touchdowns en route to a likely Comeback Player of the Year award and a large payday this offseason. The team finished with 14-3 record, their best in more than 25 years. In the last game of the year, they played the division rival Lions with a chance at the #1 seed; however, after a close first half in which the Vikings couldn't find the end zone the Lions (and standout RB Jahmyr Gibbs) ran away with the game in the second half. They will try to bounce back this week against the Los Angeles Rams, who overcame the retirement of all-world DT Aaron Donald and a horrific start to the season that saw standout WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both miss several games to win the mediocre NFC West. Sean McVay continues to be one of the best coaches in the league, and the offense led by veteran QB Matt Stafford was supplemented by a hungry young defense, particularly a defensive line that remained strong even after Donald's retirement due to second-year DT (and talented singer) Kobie Turner and rookies Braden Fiske and probable Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse. This should be an interesting game, as the two coaches know each other very well; O'Connell served as the Rams' offensive coordinator in their Super Bowl-winning season before accepting the head coaching job with the Vikings. While the Vikings have been a very strong team throughout the season, the emotional letdown of losing the #1 seed to the Lions has me worried about a potential hangover in this one against a Rams team that, while young on the surface, retains plenty of institutional playoff knowledge with McVay, Stafford and Kupp. Many of the Vikings' important pieces have never been important pieces on playoff teams; how will they respond? With the line of 1 implying this as basically a pick'em, this is considered the most even matchup of any, and it's definitely the one I have the hardest time choosing. In the end, I think I'll go with the Rams' experience taking it over the Vikings, but my confidence level is not high.
In the Commie's case, Fedex Field (or whatever they're calling it now) is falling apart to the point that:
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Sewage occasionally leaks onto fans.
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The hot water stopped working in the locker rooms.
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A railing broke and fans fell onto the field, almost landing on Jalen Hurts.
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The playing surface was famously awful for years. It famously bears part of the blame for RGIII destroying his name (personally his being allowed to pay at all on an unstable knee was the biggest fuckup in my opinion, but the shitty field definitely didn't help). By midseason it looked worse than many high-school fields. They did renovate the field a couple years ago and I haven't heard complaints since, so this problem seems like it may have been fixed.
Some of the seat views are obstructed. They've somehow managed to lose 30,000 seats of capacity since it opened. Not that they've needed it considering the team's ineptitude and the subpar stadium experience, but still. Also, while not the stadium itself's fault, it's located in a high-crime area. Doesn't have the surrounding development that more modern stadiums try to cultivate.
Honestly, the fact it's fallen apart so quickly considering it was only built in 1997 is almost impressive. I don't know if they just straight-up didn't have a maintenance department under Snyder or what, but a stadium shouldn't be in this bad of a condition after less than 30 years.
As to their name, I don't type out Redskins anymore when referring to them but I definitely think it when I think of them, and will slip up often when just saying it off the top of my head. Same for the Cleveland Guardians - they were the Indians through all my formative years, including when I had a personal connection to the team; internally, they're still the Indians even if I type out Guardians and understand the change (Chief Wahoo was pretty bad). With time that might change, although the looming potential name change from Commanders->whatever else doesn't encourage too much reprogramming (although the Washington Commies is definitely fun).
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
I suppose the opening line was a bit antagonistic? But the Steelers lost, so I think that can be forgiven.
On substance I completely agree with this. Losing (and later gaining) one hour of sleep, once a year is such a trivial "cost" that it barely warrants noticing. I am more likely to mess up my sleep schedule, and with more significance by degree, from any of the dozens of meetups, holidays, events, etc. that I will go through in the year than I am from changing the clock forward an hour. The benefits of extra sunlight (for those with a "standard" wakeup schedule of 5:30 or later, apologies to @FiveHourMarathon ) vastly outweighs the negative of losing one hour of sleep, on one of the two days with the least time constraints for the general population (other than church (which commands less and less relevance), what would the modal American have as a firm time constraint on a typical Sunday?). I could see the argument for moving the clock forward and just leaving it there, the point others have made about kids blundering in the dark getting to school being the only significant pragmatic drawback I can think of. The only other argument I have against is a pure "Noon should mean Noon", which connects with me on an emotional level but doesn't really do much for the pragmatist argument.
If forced to choose I think perma-DST is pragmatically the clear choice over Noon-Is-Noon even if viscerally I prefer Noon-Is-Noon more than "My life would be better if time worked differently, so DST should be permanent." A transition to an 8-4 workday would solve the problem better than a perma-DST move, but I don't know how easily one could convince the entire workforce of that.
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
Not OP but I imagine his argument would be that the policies of 1960's Democrats would have more in common with today's Republicans than today's Democrats.
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
After looking like the worst team in the league the first half of the season, the Panthers have been sneakily competent so far in the back half. Their last three games have been against division leaders, and they lost all three by one score (including one in overtime). They may be a trap game but have been playing their best ball of the season lately. Bryce Young looks like a different player after his benching, and Canales deserves a lot of credit not only for that, but also for getting a full buy-in from the team. The Panthers are playing hard, and while they've come up short in these last few games and moral victories aren't "real" ones, it is absolutely encouraging for Panthers fans that they've been really striving for these games. It can be easy for a team like this to give up on the season - just look at the Giants.
As for MVP, even with the loss it feels to me like it's Allen's to lose at this point. Lamar will struggle to win the division at this point, which would make his candidacy non-viable. Saquon has been absolutely incredible, but I don't think the narrative for him has been that he is the only guy carrying the Eagles, the way Adrian Peterson was the entire offense for the Vikings back when he won. I think the Eagle's embarrassment of riches across the offense will hurt his candidacy. Meanwhile, Allen's supporting skill position cast on the Bills has been below-average, with one of the worst WR rooms in the league prior to the addition of Amari Cooper at the deadline (who has not done much as a Bill, either) - their most-played WR is former Eagles castoff Mack Hollins. James Cook has been good, but not to the point of overcoming their receiving shortcomings. And everyone watched Allen attempt to drag that team kicking and screaming to a victory Sunday night all by his lonesome, which will play well in the minds of the voters even though he couldn't quite manage it in the end.
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
Imagine after all the losses they took in regaining them, France sells Alsace-Lorraine back to Germany to keep their economy afloat.
Not a likely scenario by any means, but could you imagine?
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
Re: Daniel Jones cap manipulation, if they benched him for the season and released him next year with a post-June 1st designation they would be able to manipulate his dead cap situation; this is what the Broncos did with Russ, and why they didn't release him until the new league year started in March instead of when they benched him late last year. The downside to that is they would have to carry his full cap hit as if he wasn't released until June 1st*, so it might hamper their free agency plans to do it that way, but it would mean they can split his dead cap over 2025 and 2026 instead of just in 2025. His dead cap isn't insurmountable, though, so it isn't that big a deal to carry it all next year. (For comparison's sake, Russ was designated a post-June 1 cut by the Broncos; this didn't impact their FA since his dead cap this year was exactly the same as a post-June 1 cut as it would have been if he was on the roster, but by cutting him as a post-June 1st in March instead of releasing him in December his dead cap is spread over this year and next instead of taking a full $85MM dead cap hit this year, which would have made it almost impossible to field a competitive team).
The manipulation is that by benching him it makes him drastically less likely to get seriously hurt and activate the injury guarantee, which would guarantee him an additional $23MM next year. This is why they benched him in the first place (and why Russ was benched, and why the Raiders benched Derek Carr in 2022); they didn't want to be stuck paying him even more next year when they want to move on from him. Moving to Tommy Devito instead of Drew Lock, who was the No. 2 all year, makes it even more suspicious that this was not a move based on winning more football games, and the Giants' locker room mostly seems to agree with me (they sure played like it this weekend).
'* - this used to be the case; as far as I know it still is, although they've been changing some of these cap rules in the past couple years so I'm not 100% certain.
SigurdsSilverSword
4mo ago
While the Giants and Raiders were both not great with their star running backs last year (although both had seen average-to-good offenses built around them in the not-so-distant past), both have seen significantly worse results since letting them go.
The Giants with a healthy Saquon (2018, 2022) were an extremely mid offense, averaging the exact midpoint in the league (16.5) in points (16, 15) and yards (17, 18). The Giants with an unhealthy Barkley (2020, 2021, 2023) were one of the worst offenses in the league in both points scored (31, 31, 30) and yards (31, 31, 29). Without Barkley this year they've scored the fewest points in the league and are trending in the wrong direction.
The Raiders are less obvious since Carr's departure had more of an effect, but this is the worst year they've had offensively since drafting Jacobs (even comparing the past two Carr-less years, they've clearly regressed offensively this year), and have had noticeably worse RB play even compared to Jacobs' poor last season in black and silver. He actually led the team in AV (football-reference's attempt to make a WAR for football) in 2022, for whatever that's worth (not a ton, in my opinion).
Even a very good running back will heavily rely on their offensive line, and a bad offensive line will make even the best ones have mediocre results, but the position in general has been overly devalued if you ask me - a good running back can still be the focal point of a successful offense.
SigurdsSilverSword
5mo ago
Qui uincit non est uictor nisi uictus fatetur.
It seems to me that often as not tragedies make teams/players more connected as a unit, rather than preoccupied with their off-field lives (as I would be - if my house burned down you can bet my focus at work would slip that week.) So for now I'll stay with my original prediction (even though most of them this week have been wrong!)
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