Mottizen
4mo ago
Last rally before the RNC might have been reason enough to send a high-profile photographer
Mottizen
4mo ago
That pivot has to have some correlation with perceived likelihood of him dropping out, though? There were whispers, they quietened a bit, and now they're back in action so I think there must be some sort of potential weakness displayed by Biden.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Trump is not highly replaceable and this was the first serious attempt on his life.
Trump is relatively unique in this respect, though.
Mottizen
4mo ago
I feel the continuing push from the party has to be indicative of somebody thinking there's a vulnerability there.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Trump shooting really should have been Biden's deliverance. If they're still pressuring despite that, hard to see him clinging on.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Now it seems like every woman absolutely hates the entire Harry Potter franchise because of the whole Terf thing with its author.
I'd say it's firmly in the guilty pleasure channel for most young UMC women, but definitely get a lot more 'literally Hitler' from those born before 1997 or so.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Yeah. Vibes-based but I feel like the last 3 books contained like a tenth of the worldbuilding and new magic introduced compared to the first 4, especially since Goblet was very much 'Look at this vibrant world of wizardry' then 'bang we must gaze at our navels and be sad for 3 books'
Mottizen
4mo ago
7 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by JK Rowling. This was where the series peaked, the next three books suffered from mistakes made here, but this was her best world-building and swashbuckling.
Back when I was dating I used to frequently use 'do you prefer the first half or second half of the Harry Potter series' as a conversation piece, and I found it very interesting that men seem to be very inclined towards the first half and women very inclined towards the second half. Over a good sample of educated women who felt very passionately about Harry Potter, plus general social occasions for men to chime in. Personally feel the whole enterprise goes off a cliff as the word counts expand and the magic contracts from Phoenix onwards, but also potentially a good indicator of women preferring a more emotionally-driven story.
Mottizen
4mo ago
I'd expect great art to take a little bit of time to marinate/be discovered, though
Mottizen
4mo ago
On the other hand Trump is in his late 70's and if the objective was 'Trump can't be President' that'd likely be accomplished by even moderately wounding him considering recovery timelines at his age and needing to campaign.
Mottizen
4mo ago
JFK wasn't on live TV was it? The Zapruder film and some others have since emerged but it's not like it was a national telecast of some random Dallas motorcade
Mottizen
4mo ago
Yeah I happen to run a biggish book and the sheer enthusiasm to back Trump and non-Biden dem noms is pretty crazy.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Betting/prediction markets look slightly up for Trump, like +6%-7% or so.
I just don't really see which extra votes this is getting for them. Biden's probably the biggest beneficiary directly as he's moved out of the media focus now.
Mottizen
4mo ago
I don't really see who it galvanizes to back Trump. The hollowing out of the middle means that I don't think that there's a huge bed of people who are gonna be additional votes for him as a result.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Democrats / media playing that card would only sound convincing to the people they already convinced long ago, and it would be extremely off-putting to everyone else.
Prettymuch all Trump can do as well, though. Who does this really galvanize towards being pro-Trump? Trump's base loves him already
Mottizen
4mo ago
He assassinated the man's spirit and honor, far more significant than his mortal body
Mottizen
4mo ago
I want to agree with @johnfabian that (mainstream) Democrats are going to get less strident. There's no angle, no way to try blaming the victim here. Not without a much more radical brand.
Gun control yaddayaddayadda gun control. Can easily work on that angle and Trump can't really condemn either side.
Mottizen
4mo ago
I think it's great for Biden's candidacy in that the media's been distracted.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Exactly. Wouldn't shock me if the shooter was atleast partially motivated by the whole Project 2025 buzzword that's been hammered lately, which isn't even Trump's personal position.
Mottizen
4mo ago
Don't get why people assuming this is a positive Trump moment. Obviously gonna pivot to Gun Control chat & Trump's base already loves him
Mottizen
4mo ago
Taking him on is a highly risky option - if you fail and Biden loses some people will blame you for the loss, potentially killing your future prospects. If you take him on and he wins that's even worse - now the President has a very personal grudge against you.
Also if you provoke an open nomination and you personally don't get it, it's likely to torpedo your personal chances of being President if that nominee ends up winning the election since they'll likely get to run twice at which point it's 2032 and your political ambitions are probably fucked.
Mottizen
4mo ago
the latter will get you nowhere
Also life disruptions to your exercise pattern/naturally ageing out will tend to eventually strand you anyways. I was an elite athlete in my youth and have generally been super active. The second I stop working out like a professional athlete I tend to stack on weight as a result of those habits, which isn't really sustainable with having kids/time-consuming jobs.
I think if you pick the right subcultures of active/adjacent criminals you'd reach that kind of number. Certain rap scenes feel like that'd almost be an understatement of the shooting risk.
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