Mantergeistmann
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User ID: 323
Mantergeistmann
13hr ago
None of these countries are actively committing genocide
China aside, as you said, I suppose it all depends on who you ask. But isn’t that always the case?
Russia’s violently imperial war in Ukraine is not only a flagrant violation of international law and interstate norms, but it also carries all the hallmarks of an ongoing campaign of genocide in Ukraine. From Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s 7,000-word screed that systematically and historically denies Ukrainian nationhood; to mass graves uncovered in almost every Ukrainian territory liberated from Russian occupation; to the Kremlin’s public campaign of mass deportation and of Ukrainian civilians and children through “filtration” concentration camps; to the deliberate targeting of maternity hospitals, medical facilities, schools, and basic civil infrastructure; to the widespread employment of rape and sexual violence as a weapon of terror—rarely has genocidal intent and pattern of action been so clearly telegraphed and demonstrated for the world to see. According to the five-point definition under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, Russia has demonstrated clear, notorious, and mounting evidence in all five criteria, even though only one must be fulfilled to qualify as genocide.
The grossest thing about Israel is that they did manage to build a semi-coherent ethnonationalist state
Weren't there always some number of Arab citizens in Israel, with full rights?
Mantergeistmann
23hr ago
Awareness of the confessional/mainline distinction is basically zero among non-churchgoing people that I've met in real life. Unfortunately, laypeople I meet sometimes hear "Lutheran" and think "ELCA."
Awareness of that distinction was pretty close to zero for me as a churchgoer growing up.
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
Is this the same Human Rights council that has condemned Israel more times than every single other country in the world combined? Or is that a different part of the UN? If so, I'm not sure they're entirely unbiased... or I'm wrong, and Israel really is worse than Iran, Russia, North Korea, China, and everyone else on the planet put together.
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
I actually had to look up the Lutheran church I grew up attending... Evangelical Lutheran, apparently (which is, confusingly enough, not "evangelical"?)
All I know is, the pastor was insistent that nobody bring lutefisk to the smorgasbord, which always disappointed my grandmother. Dunno where that falls ecumenically.
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
confessional Lutheran
What does that mean, in this context?
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
Ok - what is the acceptable rate of school situated in former military barracks bombings in such a massive campaign. If the answer is zero - you put such burdensome rules of engagement that make US victory impossible. If it is one - we are right at the tolerance border.
I'd put it at "zero for the opening salvo", and then increasing over time. There's no excuse to not have a fully up to date target list for the first hour, when everything is choreographed and friction and Murphy haven't yet had a chance to really get to work.
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
There's Iranian doctors purportedly reporting that literally every single casualty they've seen is non-civilian
I've only seen reporting going the other way, that a significant amount of the casualties are civilian. Presumably the source is also "Iran" and it's being accepted at face value, because what other sources are there at the moment, really?
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
Nobody has presented any evidence that Iran was trying to develop a nuclear weapon
What other reason would they have for 60% enrichment? As far as I know, there were zero indications they were pursuing naval propulsion, for instance.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
That might be all that's needed, though. Declaring separation could, in theory, fracture a fragile country.
I wouldn't bet my life on it working out, but what cost Liberty, I suppose.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
Which eliminates the entire idea of inspiring fear to avoid hatred.
? I read it as not that you should inspire fear to avoid hatred (that is, the fear is a means of avoiding being hated), but that when inspiring fear (if you can't also be loved) to avoid inadvertently inspiring hatred as a side-effect of the fear.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
Conservatives were set to win in a landslide, with Liberals possibly even losing Party status, until Trump awoke the Sleeping Lion of Canadian Politics: "Not being America".
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
if Trump was considering attacking, he didn't do so when the protests were closer to their peak and he threatened intervention if people got shot
The US military makes things look very easy, but that's due to a lot of battlespace preparation, asset mobilization, and logistics. The downside is that it's very easy to make this look so easy as to think they could accomplish it on a shorter time scale.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
We could have done this much easier via diplomacy
As I understand it, Iran declared that stopping nuclear enrichment/capabilities to do so wasn't on the table. Which means no, there really wasn't a diplomatic option possible that I can see.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
The US could probably win against China (militarily; I'm not going in to civilian morale/will to fight and win), but it'd be costly.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
Oh, I'd also be surprised. Just that minesweeping is an area where the USN knows it is a bit weak, that it's an area where an asymmetric foe can exploit, and that it hasn't solved as hoped.
Mantergeistmann
2d ago
In terms of ability, I agree with the others that the US seems to be pretty good at taking out speedboats. I'm not a military expert, but surely the US has been planning for years (and building tools) to deal with the exact situation where Iran tries to stop traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So I think it's pretty likely that the US has enough countermeasures in place that whatever Iran tries on this score, it won't succeed long term.
Yes, but also no. Minesweeping has been a recognized weakness for a while, and the ships that were supposed to help turned out to be... bad enough many were retired early.
Mantergeistmann
3d ago
Who will bell post the cat?
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
Personally, for my own safety's sake, I'd rather we err heavily on the side of "assuming people are/protecting gullible idiots".
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
No nuclear enrichment, lift sanctions, Palestinian state, expel the Jews from the West Bank and make the West Bank part of Palestine. No Israeli presence in Syria.
Would Iran also have to publically dismantle its Doomsday Countdown Clock?
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
Just like "fuck all republicans" is like, never going to be clean and always going to be something full of animus even if people drop a "fuck" all over the place in regular conversations.
"Peg the Patriarchy" may not be calling for the specific sex act, but the sentiment is correctly understood to be very negative all the same.
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
Libya
I was unaware that Israel was a big player in the NATO intervention there.
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
But at the end of the day, it's better to be feared than to be loved.
So long as you can avoid being hated, if I recall my Machiavelli. Of course, if you expect to be hated regardless, your options do then devolve to "be not feared, dead, and hopefully eulogised pleasantly and to no longer have your corpse be hated" or "be hated, feared, and have a chance at continuing to live", well, the calculus seems clear.
Mantergeistmann
5d ago
What did we consider Tokyo Rose and Lord Haw Haw? But is it different if they're just being fooled by Iranian propaganda and reporting what they believe is the truth (and making AI videos or other art to display said "truth"), vice actively taking official marching orders from the regime?
2500 is about the size of crew, pilots, and troops for either an LHA or LHD. Per USNI'S Fleet Tracker there's currently one near Japan, and one in the Caribbean. Would provide a bit of added firepower (F-35s, Harriers, Ospreys, etc., plus more anti-sub capabilities), and the threat of some shore/harbor activities.
Edit: word is that it's the TRIPOLI & strike group. So in addition to the TRIPOLI, that's one Tico and one Burke coming from the area of Japan.
No, don't ask about why ship sizes don't seem to match up with what you'd think based on their "Frigate vs. Destroyer vs. Cruiser" classification.
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