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MaiqTheTrue

Renrijra Krin

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joined 2022 November 02 23:32:06 UTC 

				
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MaiqTheTrue


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Renrijra Krin

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 November 02 23:32:06 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It’s not that there aren’t many conservatives, it’s the difference between defense and offense,  offense only has to get past the defense one time to score.  The defense has to stop the offense every single time or they lose.  So if im watching a game and one team is trying to run out the clock on defense and the other is trying to score, I’ll always predict the team on offense to win because again, they only need to get past one time, the other team can shut them down for 99% of the game, but that one goal in tge last ten seconds means they lose.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think the government has no real levers to pull on prices.  The city doesn’t decide what rotisserie chickens cost, the grocery store does.  And really, I don’t think most of the people in this country really get that.  They expect that the government can lower prices or give them a better job, a fictional power that the government doesn’t have.  And most people are really honestly too dumb to understand how things work in government, and are thus prey to near constant propaganda that tells them that the government exists as a personal butler to go and fix their job and the prices and make sure bad stuff doesn’t happen while also not doing anything mean to prevent that.


It’s stuff like this that convinced me that democracy is a terrible idea that mostly destroys everything in the name of government giving people what they say they want when the message is contradictory and incoherent nonsense.  People want low taxes, tons of services, welfare, bullet trains, education for everyone that thusly guarantees their kids a high wage job.  It’s not possible, and when the government ties itself in knots trying to do it, you get either gridlock or insanity.  I’d much rather have a leader who knows how things work to put the state on the right track and keep it there.  The public doesn’t know what it wants.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Quality Contributions Report for October 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don’t think JKR is hiding her power level.  It’s much more likely she didn’t really think through her magical system and didn’t realize that she made the Pureblood faction right simply because of how her system works.


Way of Kings with the magic coming from Shards means that having such a powerful stone means you have magical powers.  You thus have a system that is based on minerals.  Something like Earthsea runs on the logic of knowing the “true name” of things, which would mean the logic leads people to horde knowledge.  The way that magic works shapes how people perceive their world.  She just sort of tied everything to bloodlines and then tried to ignore that if bloodlines determine magical abilities, people will be very concerned about bloodlines.


This is more an example of Sanderson’s Rule:  even if you don’t show everything about your magic or technology systems, you better know what you can and can’t do and how it works.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Midterms Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My concern isn’t that a chat bot LLM would talk like a Nazi.  But it is concerning that AIs can so easily be manipulated into doing something that its creators have made a fence around.  The AI will be much more powerful than what we have now, and the human mind will want to use it for off label things, many of them dangerous.  If we cannot reliably stop a 16 year old from breaking containment on the language and rhetoric of an AI LLM bot, what makes you so sure AI agents cannot be manipulated into circumventing the guardrails preventing it from hacking bank accounts or the power grid?  What prevents a group of semi-autonomous bots from hacking things?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Midterms Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Americans have much too short of attention spans.  The idea of re-onshoring ultimately would have paid dividends for America, but changing the business environment such that people would choose to make things in America is probably a decades long process.  He couldn’t have possibly done it in 2 years.


Likewise fixing international issues.  Asserting and projecting power is not an overnight thing.  Again, you need at least a little time to fix the problem.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Midterms Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I firmly disagree.  If you do it the nice way, it shows weakness, and allows for the hostage puppy to be used.  And you don’t get nearly as many people out as you could if you simply did the thing while making clear that you don’t care about the optics.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Midterms Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Anyone who thinks Epstein is worth the effort is unserious.  He’s dead, there’s no point.  It’s just a way for people to pretend they’re into politics without having to look into issues.  Corruption is the same thing.  You can bleat about anything that sounds corrupt without having to know anything.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Midterms Megathread
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don’t think “lock the doors and hope the AI doesn’t have a blaster” is a reliable way to prevent the apocalypse.  Lots of people already have made a serious mincemeat of measures on ChatGPT.  The rails are supposed to prevent it from teaching people how to do things like make bombs and poison, but it’s been overridden often enough that ChatGPT can tech people how to do those things, or talk like a Nazi if you’re into that.  If we’re giving this to the public and using the same sorts of guardrails, start digging yourself a bunker.  Chatty boy is going to break through them.


I think you need a serious set of safety guardrails on the server side that cannot be broken easily and you need to rigorously test them before you start letting them out for general use.  This isn’t something you can issue a patch for


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The rules are mostly about giving the people running gyms a firm way to say no to men in women’s restrooms so you don’t have to wait until the man does something really bad in a women’s restroom before you can act against that man.  If the rules don’t say no men, you can’t kick out the men unless they’re behaving badly, and by then it’s probably too late.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My prediction is a roughly even senate and a democratic majority in the House of about +5-8.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Quality Contributions Report for October 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Is it really neo Nazi?  I think the issue is that JKR made an entire universe in which bloodline = magical powers, which is different than this reality.  In that universe, being in favor of high quality bloodlines is good as it ensures that magical powers will continue.  That’s the world building we have.  In Way of Kings, magic powers are a property of a certain kind of rock, thus if you want to preserve magical powers in Way of Kings you horde those rocks.


JKR is notoriously bad about internal consistency in her world building, and the bloodlines = magic bit is one of them.  If you’re writing to make the point that everyone should be included, maybe don’t make genetics a component of your magic system.  Also, maybe don’t make the gnomes working in the bank Jewish stereotypes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean there’s a difference between “not supposed to lie, but do it anyway” and “lying is fine actually.”  There is no Christian doctrine that says I can lie to advance Christianity.  It doesn’t exist.  If you lie as a Christian, it’s a sin, no matter what causes its advancing.  If a Muslim lies for the sake of Islam, my understanding is that it’s not a sin.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I tend to think MAGA will over perform here as well.  Trump has done something that is pretty rare in American politics — he has visibly kept most of the promises he made in the campaign (with a minor problem of the Iran war).  This, I think is going to cover up some problems for the MAGA right, because no matter what you think about the MAGA agenda, you can absolutely see that it’s being done.  Democrats don’t have such a record of visible accomplishment.  Biden was supposed to “build back better” and have a bunch of infrastructure improvements.  Nobody can point to a stretch of road or power stations or a renewable energy plant and say “Biden did that and kept his promise.”  But with Trump, you have tge EU finally starting to take care of its own affairs, you have mass deportations, you have the government working to make abortions and transed kids rarer, you have trade protection for US manufacturers.  Whether or not you agree with his agenda, he’s keeping his promises.  Most politicians in my lifetime have been basically saying what the polls told them to say, and then quietly make excuses as to why you can’t just do that.


Secondly, the Democrats have no serious agenda.  They don’t have an economic agenda, a foreign policy agenda, a social agenda, their entire political agenda seems to be “Prevent Trump from doing things, and hate on Israel.”  Most people are probably not anti-Israel and even if they were, it doesn’t matter nearly as much as other issues that actually touch them personally.  More people are affected by the laws allowing men into their daughter’s locker room and her sports team than are personally impacted by anything going on in Gaza.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
70% odds isn’t bad.  But im not sure it’s reasonable to assume that just because the bettors are convinced that something is a done deal, that it’s almost certain.  It’s hard to predict the future, so while I would say that I expect markets to do better than chance, im not prepared to start playing funeral music for the Republicans just because it’s predicted that they lose.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Markets have the same problems that any other prediction have:  they rely on mostly public information, and they cannot always figure out the X factors that nobody can predict.


Take sports.  You can look deeply into statistics, but they don’t catch everything.  And especially if the teams are reasonably equal those X factors can make or break a team.  A receiver who had a fight with his girlfriend and is  distracted.  An unreported injury.  A freak storm that makes the passing game ineffective, a kicker with the yips.   It’s just crazy black swans that happen in games


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I’m not sure much changes.  A slim D majority would probably not be able to do much simply because any defections become fatal, and on most issues you can probably peel off a D or two thus breaking the bloc.


But I’m a bit more of a skeptic of markets simply because it’s all based on the same information, and is thus only as good as the information we have publicly and the intuitions of individuals betting.  It’s a useful indicator, but it’s not as sure as boosters want to believe it is.  It’s probably about 60-70% accurate, assuming that the polling numbers are accurate.  All kinds of weird things can happen all the way down to wait times at polling stations, weather, accidents on the highway, and local issues on the ballot which might drive on side or the other to the polls to support or oppose those issue.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
China gets by with it because they’re an economic powerhouse.  If not, herding people they nominally consider citizens into camps where they are forced to give up their religion and culture under the threat of torture.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
How many people have Israel as a major focal point of their election decision?  I just don’t think a sizeable percentage of people are going to ignore economic policy and education and health care and other kitchen table issues in order to either support or oppose Israel.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My intuition is that the entire cause is mostly about Israel.  I just don’t see this level of vindictive behavior against other countries doing similar things fairly openly.  The Korean descendants living in Japan are not really treated like citizens, despite living in Japan for generations.  There’s the other genocides:  uigher, the Rohingya for example.  The minority groups in other countries not given sovereignty (Basques, Transnitrians, Dagestanis, Kurds, etc.).  I could probably find modern examples of the Gaza and Israel style relations in lots of places.  You just don’t hear about them much because C the world doesn’t care.


To be honest, I think most the indigenous rights and land acknowledgment stuff is less about the indigenous peoples and more about a dig on the people who won the war.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
And even if, I fail to see why this is something that we need to spend trillions on.  We cannot and should not be spending our blood and treasure on things that don’t matter to us.  Ukraine isn’t a territory that’s militarily or economically important.  It was basically Nebraska— farmland.  No strategic minerals, no important industries, no oil.  It doesn’t matter at all whether or not that farmland is ruled from Moscow or Kiev.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I kind of tend to agree.  The current situation is one of the international community enforcing a stalemate that will not serve anyone.  Palestinians are not served by being led by Hamas and other terrorist groups who vainly start another infatada every decade, causing Israel to flatten everything standing in Palestine.  At this point, I’d be doing what the settlers are doing— take over “Palestine” making it clear that if you continue to fuck around, you will continue to find out.


The enforced stalemate just kills more people, most of them Palestinians.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think it’s a pretty strong argument for not getting involved in these kinds of wars unless they actually have some strategic importance to us in America.  Neither of these wars are of particular importance to America.  If Ukraine falls, it’s not going to change anything in the USA or Europe.  Iran again was not really a danger to us, and had we done nothing, we’d have lower gas prices on top of not paying for the war.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean proselytizing is one thing, cultural assimilation is something else.  And no one post WW2 is really capable of doing so mostly because the RBIO global system has completely bought into the idea that cultures are to be conserved at all costs, even when the culture itself is harmful not only to other cultures but to itself.


Enforcing the standards of actual civilization on a backwards tribe that still practices genital mutilation is considered backwards.  Insisting that the death penalty for “blasphemy” or “apostasy” are bad is evil in the RBIO.  What exactly do you expect here?  If Israel integrated and insisted that Palestinians could no longer preach genocide of Jews from the pulpit, would they be allowed to enforce it?  Could they enforce a no jihad rule?  Or would they be accused of cultural genocide for saying that “Death to Israel “ is hate speech?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Maverick was exactly that though.  The pilots are not sexy killers who get things done.  They’re mostly dorks.  Maverick actually does have something like PTSD over Goose forty years later, and spends much of the film being a mother hen to Rooster.


It’s a far cry from the messaging of the original Top Gun.  In the original film, the pilots are superheroes extremely capable, extremely self confident, sexy to every woman they come across.  When goose died in the original, the message was not to mope around and feel sorry for yourself, but to get over it and get back to business:  being a self confident, capable military warrior who could put aside grief and fear and kill the enemy.  Maverick is portrayed as his most pathetic when he’s moping around after goose died.  He only gets to be the hero by manning up and doing his job.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think this is broadly correct, though I’d point out that we also have been denegrating family life, especially for women since the late 50s or early 60s.  You can just look at pop culture and it’s obvious.  Women are not supposed to want to be mothers.  They are supposed to want careers and to be an educated girl boss.