MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
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User ID: 1783
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
6hr ago
I’m not convinced that it’s possible to just win an arial war. There’s no real way to force a victory unless you have total control over the territory and that either requires Hiroshima or substantial boots on the ground. The Iranians can simply bury or hide anything or anyone they care about, and often deep enough that only a nuke can destroy them.
The problem is the will to do those things. The heavy casualties that come with an invasion are politically untenable— we had significant backlash against Iraq when our losses reached 1000 total. And nukes are effectively off the table because again the political backlash would be severe. So we just drop bombs on some targets and pretend we’re winning.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
6hr ago
The mother would also be in a position to understand and judge the claim.
There are lots of things that might make someone lie about such a thing, and if she had an ongoing pattern of lying and exaggerating to get attention or be manipulative, I think the situation would look very similar from the outside. But if people close to her are saying she has this pattern, I tend to default to it being true, simply because they know her.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
6hr ago
I haven’t read the book yet, and having met people who I would describe as hillbillies, honestly, I think he was leaning more into dunking on them based on stereotypes rather than making a critique of a real culture. Hillbillies are not lazy or stupid even if most of respectable people like to think they are. We have a strong bias against working class white people, and often claim they are lazy and stupid.
I think the opposite is true. Ingenuity takes far more smarts than looking in a book and following the directions. And it’s a lot more work to have a blue collar job than to type away at a laptop while drinking a Starbucks. Get a member of the laptop class and a hillbilly on a deserted island, and the hillbilly will build a house and rig up a way to hunt or fish and his richer and better educated cohort will have no idea what to do.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
I kinda get where that piece is coming from, but I think it kind of fails simply because it doesn’t deal with the difficulty of working with iron. It would be like saying “okay, silicon is as common as sand, therefore we can decentralize information because all you need to do to get silicon and therefore computer chips is to go to a beach and start digging. Not really. You have the raw material, but unless you have the skills and and technology necessary to work with that material, you aren’t really going to get anywhere close to equality with those with the ability to use iron.
I personally think a large part of the collapsing states was simply rot. The leadership hadn’t really developed much beyond where they were hundreds of years ago, the people, used to being a part of an empire were less industrious and self controlled and often dependent on luxuries from abroad rather than local stuff. So social vices proliferate, industry and innovation decline, and sooner or later someone comes along and topples the old order simply because the foundations had been eaten away.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
I’m pretty convinced of this, at least without really good levels of subject matter knowledge. I would expect an economist to accurately predict second order effects of a tax hike or tariff increase on prices because he’s studied that system deeply. I would expect a geologist to be able to tell me whether or not fracking would destabilize geologic plates and cause more earthquakes. Or expect an expert on neurology to predict the effects of early screen use on the development of the human brain.
Take away the expertise, and it is effectively impossible because you don’t have enough background information to know the difference between things that are impossible, things that are rare, and things that are common. If I know for example, that tariffs lower imports, then it’s possible to say raised tariffs will raise prices on basic supply and demand. If not, I can’t really do that.
The contrarian approach mostly looks smart because it signals that you aren’t beholden to expert opinions and are supposedly looking for yourself. Which signals that you’re smart enough to do it and that you’re confident in your ability to do that. Smarts and confidence are seen as positive.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
That’s pretty much what happened here. The real image showed a Somali politician with the flag upside down, showing at best ignorance and at worst disrespect for the flag. Journalists who don’t want the immigrant community to be seen in either of those ways is strongly biased towards any way to “debunk” that idea.
And this is why deep fakes will work most of the time. They don’t have to even be good, they just have to conform to what people want to be true.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
It’s rather telling however that democrats get upset about republicans saying true things about them. If democrats made ads that said republicans want to cut spending and lower taxes, republicans would be thrilled even if they went to the wrong side.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
I mean true, but unless you preserve something like the future you want, there’s nothing to point at. It’s a lot harder to say I want a Christian society when your kid is having his faith destroyed by modern liberalism hammered into his skull. And really, outside of traditional movements, that’s where we are. Culture is so hostile to their ideas that unless they separate from the rest of the culture, there’s nothing left to preserve.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
Hockey, soccer, basketball and rugby are at least played fairly continuously, without timeouts between plays and numerous play reviews and flags on top of timeouts and TV breaks. I like tge game, but if you’re not used to turn-based play where you get time to set everything up 4 times and run the play to see what happens, it’s kinda boring and I think it makes the games longer than they need to be.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
It’s the same intelligence. It’s not different intelligences. That’s my point. It takes logical reasoning to understand socializing or art or sports. You just have people spending their time using their g for different things. Some of it is temperament or family dynamics guiding kids on how they choose to develop their skills, but at the bottom it’s all g and a person who doesn’t have decent g isn’t going to excel in skills other than math either. I’ve yet to meet an IQ 80 person who could really and truly understand socialization or art or nature, and outside of maybe football defense where all they need to know is “tackle guy in front of me” most sports require at least average intelligence to understand the strategy.
What well meaning teachers talking about 7 intelligences tend to mean by that is that g, IQ, simply doesn’t exist and that you can be smart about different things because there are different forms of intelligence. So a person can be too stupid to understand very basic logic and supposedly have “sports smarts” which requires a form of cause and effect thinking to learn the game, let alone strategy. Or maybe they’re too stupid for logic but can figure out how to get a picture to look good (using cause and effect AKA logic). It makes no sense.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2d ago
It’s mostly cope in my view. The people who push the idea that there are other forms of intelligence tend to be either teachers who want to believe that the dumb kids aren’t actually dumb, and the dumb ones who don’t want to believe that they’re not just as smart as the science math and logic leaders. But it’s not true. You can’t be smart about feelings or art or nature or smarts without using the same pattern recognition and extrapolation skills that the STEM people use. You might, by temperament, aim it at different problems. Patrick Mahomes is aiming his logic and pattern recognition at football where Elon Musk is aiming it at rockets and drones and flying cars. It’s the same brain, the same processes, but one guy is throwing to Kelcie and the other is building flying cars.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2d ago
I think it’s going to fall, though to be honest I think baseball is falling faster. I live in a baseball town, and yes you’ll see team gear, but nobody really gets into the ins and outs of the game, and don’t follow the game or the players to any real degree. Most of the players are Hispanic imports from abroad, and really, the games up until the all-star break don’t matter much. And unless you’re super into pitching, Theres not nearly enough action to keep people interested in the game, to the point where the league itself feels the need to artificially speed up the game with pinch hitters, pitch clocks, and base runners in extra innings. If you need to speed up the game to make it watchable, it’s not going to last.
I like football, but I think the game has too many stops. It’s hard to keep watching when 1/2 or more of the “play” time is standing around waiting to actually play the one play before standing around waiting for the next play. Add in that with rare exceptions, most plays outside the red zone don’t matter much, and you get a game that is 99% fluff. You end up doing other things while waiting for the good parts of the game. And I don’t see that as being a sustainable model for a popular sport.
Most pro sports also have a big problem in the price of attending an actual game. It costs hundreds to attend a game in the NFL. It’s somewhat better for baseball. And figuring out which of the streaming services actually show your team often means subscriptions to multiple services and dealing with blackout games. It makes introducing the game to kids harder. And if you don’t make it easy for kids to get into the game, then eventually they find other things to watch and do and get into.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2d ago
They can’t stop it, but neither can you. It’s not stopping unless the entire culture accepts and supports conservative views. Which isn’t happening.
The trads are not trying to undo all of western progressive culture, because that’s likely impossible for them. Instead, they propose to build enclaves where they can keep their kids safe from the kinds of ideas and material culture that exists in the rest of the world. It’s a redoubt, a fortress intended to at first provide protection and support for the like minded, but eventually have enough power to make changes.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2d ago
It’s high stress because unlike males, there’s no real role to slot into. You have to sort of make one, somewhere on the spectrum between pseudo Amish trad wife and ball busting girl boss dyke. And because Theres such a wide range of potential womanhood, there’s no target to aim for, nor can anyone help you understand the role or how to achieve it. You had thousands of years where this wasn’t true and had few or no girls deciding that they were men. Women knew how to help their girls as men knew how to help their boys because the end goal was known
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
I still think there was value, even at young ages to having male only places. You do need at least some single gender socialization so that young men and young women learn how to navigate their future roles in civilization and how to deal with their unique problems. Males need to see good modeling of channeling the extra energy that they naturally possess. Little boys are bundles of energy who need to learn how to channel it. Little girls have less energy but are much more naturally attuned to being catty and manipulative in social interactions and need to be taught to control those natural tendencies. You can’t do those things in a mixed gender environment because the problems are different and what would be good if a boy did it might not be for girls, or vice versa depending on the behavior.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
Or maybe democracy doesn’t work for exactly that reason. Social security was never meant to support an entire generation leeching off the economy for 30+ years. In the beginning, the age of retirement was set above the median life expectancy. It was never adjusted for increased lifespans, until the difference is now 30 years. But nobody in a Democratic Republic ever votes against their selfish interests and thus it’s now expected that even though you’re healthy — in fact probably still active enough for even physical labor — you deserve a + year second childhood style retirement where you spend your time going on trips, playing games, and so on. And if the kids don’t want to pay for it all, well, sucks to be them.
To be fair, the same is true of other forms of gibs. No one will ever win an urban election on cutting welfare or Medicaid. No one will win an urban election on promises to test recipients for drugs, requiring work or education, or lowering the poverty level cutoff.
This is something that Yarvin is right about in regards to democracy at least as we currently do it. The name of the game is looting the treasury until it’s empty, lest the other side get there first and use it to pay off their loyalists. Eventually you run out of other people’s money to give away and it all falls apart because what you’d need to do to fix it would never ever win an election. Democracy therefore selects for winning elections rather than running the country and winning is the only thing the political class cares about.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
The housing thing is part of how Anglo countries have generated generational wealth. Homes in America have always been seen as an investment and thus it’s impossible, politically, to let housing prices fall, or even slow the growth of housing prices.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
Well, yes, but it might well be that people living in a situation where “movement” means walking between chairs have less metabolic activity than people who were out doing things. The day for most people starts with getting out of bed, sitting to breakfast, than walking to the car and driving to work than walking to the office chair, the walk back to the car and drive home where they sit and watch TV until they get up and sit to dinner.
It’s probably not helping to say the least.
And im always a bit suspicious of self-reported calorie counting studies simply because people tend to be absolutely terrible at measuring portions and thus they end up undercounting the amount of calories they are eating. Im not sure that’s what happened in Minnesota, but it’s a huge problem for diet studies.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
Just to be devils advocate on CICO, the big issue is that most people are only paying lip service to the concept. This is true of most hard things.
There is a definite correlation between time spent butt-in-chair working on learning and actually learning things and thus doing well on tests. But … studying is hard and boring, and you would rather be doing something else. So you go after study hacks. And you’ll tell yourself that time spent studying only sort of matters, and that it’s really about something else. You’ll do worse than you needed to because you ignored the concept. Yes, there are more and less productive ways to study, but if you’re not putting in the time necessary, even the best practice will fail because you didn’t do the work.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
Theory time:
100 years ago or even 50 years ago, you naturally got a lot more exercise than we do today. Just doing normal activities without a separate exercise program was probably more movement than most of us do. You manually cook, clean, mow the grass, and other chores. If you needed something you had to walk around a store, and might visit several. Add in a more physical factory or farm job and you’re probably adding the equivalent of an hour of exercise or two a day — but it’s just living life.
Also, because most people entertained themselves by doing thing with other people, rather than doing sedentary activities alone. Before there was a TV in your home, you probably did things with other people. Go bowling, or golfing. Kids would play pick-up sports. Teens would dance. People walked around and rode bikes. Again, this kind of thing was exercise that modern adults often don’t get.
Food was also more expensive and less available. Modern Americans are probably never more than 50 steps from a snack that requires no preparation. Go to any store — hardware, clothing, crafts, whatever. They also sell cheap ready to eat snacks. There are vending machines in every office and schools and in some cases parks. So for a couple of bucks, an American could buy a snack everywhere he goes. If you don’t have good willpower, it’s likely you’ll eat at least some of these foods between meals.
Our foods also taste better. We have a lot of good foods available and there’s a lot of variety. Spicy, sweet, Indian, Thai, Korean, you name it, you can get that kind of food. This coupled with the easy preparation (or no preparation), low cost, and easy access has kinda turned food into entertainment more than simply fuel for your body.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
My theory on Keto is that by limiting carbs you feel full on fewer calories which is beneficial when you’re the kind of person who has trouble restricting calories if they feel hungry. Some people aren’t bothered by feeling a little hungry and aren’t tempted by seeing food available. Other people need to feel full and if they see treats around they’ll eat all of them.
Keto helps those people by making them feel full so they don’t seek snacks and giving hard rules that rule out most convenience foods. Breaded chicken is more carbs than keto allows, which means you have to make most meals at home and can’t just grab random food when it appears in the break room or during a meeting. That gives you more control over your diet.
The saying discipline equals freedom is true, if misunderstood. The best way to stick to anything is to decide beforehand. If you decide “im only going to eat these certain kinds of foods at these times,” saying no is a bit easier because you don’t have to decide if you’re going to eat that, you’ve already decided that food isn’t for you. It works for almost everything. If you decide to exercise on Tuesday afternoon at 3, you dont need to ask if you feel like it, you already decided.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
I’m curious about the Minoan civilization and the Bronze Age collapse. I don’t really know how much documentation we have on either of those.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
I think this is the ultimate issue of democracy. The goal is to loot the treasury for your political allies. This works okay as long as the money doesn’t run out. Unfortunately, we’re now in the era where we no longer have enough productive labor to prop up the gibs. And so you have the fun of watching as political parties try to decide whether to cut off the gibs and save the country, or continue the gibs lest the entitled burn down the country.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
I mean the record isn’t good in the last 100 years. They don’t really innovate. Jews have a vibrant tech sector, a modern military, and a thriving democracy. Arabs have oil, and were it not for that, MENA outside of Israel would be as economically viable as South America or Central Asia. Nobody would know about them, just like nobody cares about the goings on in Peru or Chile or Kazakhstan.
Who wants to pay to have their kid sell cookies at Walmart?
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