Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
Hello back frens
User ID: 2022
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
20hr ago
I think American housing value...
And how do you expect this fact to make its way into PPP determinations? I mean even aside the overton considerations, is there any way to say how much of US housing prices are due to this, beyond "I reckon"? At risk of meme-ing, if I said that living in a free and democratic country is valuable to consumers and this is reflected in the prices of the naturally limited houses-near-XYZ in such countries, how do we know youre right and Im wrong? Indicator measures arent useful if measuring them is epistemology-complete, which is why PPP is almost certainly defined in a way that cant detect these things.
especially if they do not meaningfully coexist on either market
Im sure this is true in some cases, but I dont think its true "across industries". And with services it seems like the default case - e.g. the "style of waiting" in everyday-grade european restaurants propably isnt offered in the US - so they propably have some strategy to capture it anyway
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
21hr ago
I dont generally look for these things either, because with more "normal" policies you have a good enough idea anyway that the details dont matter, and its not like these forecasts are that precise to begin with - unfortunately that means I dont know how to find one now that I would want it. Im pretty sure even good tariff equation apologetics is not what Im looking for.
I have kept my youtube free of politics-first content. Most political discussion is very unpleasant for me in audio, which likely contributed to achieving this, but I would very much recommend.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1d ago
If Chinas service economy is actually triple of what those numbers say, it gets you from 125% of US to ~155% - not a significant change to debt/GDP.
The affordability crisis in Western economies, the US in particular, is largely driven by inflation of necessary services – rent, healthcare, education and childcare – not by manufactured goods.
This is still propably a problem with the concept rather than the measurement - depending on how exactly PPP is defined, but just a few things being weirdly expensive it would likely miss. With housing especially, if you consider the value of location at all, its hard to see how international "quality" comparisons could be made.
Also not captured by the ICP survey conducted in 2021 are the price and service wars that have broken out across industries and products
Why are they not captured?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1d ago
Can someone recommend an explained numerical estimate of the economic effects of the recent tariffs, assuming they continue unchanged? Looking for something from a broadly neoclassical perspective, largely based on general theory (not "look at my linear regression mum"), that isnt aiming for maximum Trump-condemnation.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
1d ago
China’s PPP GDP is only 25% larger than that of the US? Come on people… who are we kidding?
Its not hard to pick out a few industries youre strong in. The only number there thats worth taking seriously for macro measures is electricity. And that still seems consistent with the 25% number - manufacturing generally needs more electricity than services, e.g. Icelands GDP is not actually underestimated. Theres an argument that services are BS and therefore Chinas economy really is better - but at that point, youre far enough from conventional economics that GDP is a questionable measure anyway.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
8d ago
Indeed he is, though I wouldnt have considered that part remarkable.
and answering the boundary question with a set of traits from the cluster will rightfully draw ridicule
Why is it better to answer with the entire cluster? It seems progressives should still object to western social norms defining "women" a moderate amount, just like they object to them doing so exclusively.
...lest all of this seem a bit to hostile, I dont remember hearing either the name or clique argument before. Thank you for participating.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
21d ago
Thats because there usually is only one person called William thats relevant to any given statement, and things do in fact go south pretty quickly when you cant keep it that way.
Within philosophy of language more broadly, proper and personal names are always a bit of a pain point. If you dont have a revisionist theory of them (and your argument relies on not doing so), then you generally need a much more fragmentary theory in general, where the pieces are sensitive to more parameters then we would usually expect, and then trying to generalise from personal names to something else would require a lot more checking to see if the situation is analogous, which its definitely not in this case.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
21d ago
So, it only matters to the members of the clique, which is just *checks notes* 50% of the population. Shouldnt be relevant to public discourse then.
But I dont think even outsiders go by self-identification, I would expect them to call people goths for the appearance alone, even if those people themselves disagree. Though they tend include more rather than less. Thats because they dont really care about the subculture, whereas men and women are concerned with each other for obvious reasons. And if there were legal or social rules about goth toleration, obviously it would be different again.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
21d ago
"Keith is goth" clearly means something, even though it doesn't actually tell you any specific thing about what Keith is like besides identifying as goth.
It actually doesnt tell you whether he identifies that way, it tells you whether the speaker identifies him that way. Indeed, pretty much all subcultures will explictly reject self-identification when they feel like it, usually to keep out the "posers" but occasionally also to "claim" prominent people. Persistent disagreements about such claims of inclusion or exclusion tend to fracture the subculture.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
22d ago
But why does man-made beauty need to be something normies hate? As a strong example, consider traditional bonsai, which is primarily about making things more natural than nature. Theres also a strand of modern industrial design which isnt forcefully minimalist;the things it makes are not usually beautiful, but they are cool, and in certain product categories very popular. The architecture version is the glassbox skyscraper, which is not super popular but propably some of the best of modernism.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
not because sex is uniquely bad on its face (and sexual liberals do indeed reject that notion) but because, most of the time, it's violating an explicit agreement not to do that.
And that agreement is made because bad to do the things that violate it. Theres a difference between following liberal rules, and believing in liberalism - much like with secularism.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
The Tate thesis, insofar as there is such a thing, is that its perfectly fine for you to know who he is, because he doesnt need your cooperation. Weve created a society where he can be rich just fine without being trustworthy. Hence also the islam thing - whether he personally would or could change his tune in a more traditional society remains in question of course, but he may well die before it comes to that.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
Hoes are the earliest form of agriculture. Does that mean that the first farmers where less patriarchal? I think Ive heard the opposite.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
(I dont mean to argue your experience in person, my experience with this argument was entirely schizo twitter) Wait, do people still talk about this, or has there been some "update" recently?
And, I didnt think of it originally, but you calling it racist is a great example of how it works rethorically. Most onlookers arent gonna know what you mean, it just looks like you call everything racist. And if you do go on to explain... this stereotype of black women being less feminine, I had not heard about before outside this very topic. The version about implictly biased western beauty standards is more common, but also gets into the "nutty demands" territory. Whichever way you roll it, you lose points with those not already in your camp, and it wasnt really necessary to bring it up, either - yet here we go.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
Even if Obama is foreign-born or Trump has to go to jail or whatever, people hypothetically should have been able to get the same politics
Thats a reasonable idea, but I dont think they could have. Maybe they could now, but I doubt it still. Trump has viable successors, in many ways better then him, but theyre clearly not Trump.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
25d ago
Every single one of them that mentioned it eagerly brings up new evidence in favor of the theory.
I dont think that implies theyre serious about it. Or, maybe serious but not literal? Basically, if you need the big guns OP is bringing out, the point is made.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
27d ago
Vor einem Gericht, glaubt einer der Beteiligten, würde nichts davon Bestand haben. /
/ One of the participants believes it would not hold up in court
Na ja, dann natürlich... The germans really cant help themselves.
Es soll jetzt schnell gehen, was wohl auch mit zwei politischen Veränderungen zu tun hat: Wenn eine neue Bundesregierung unter Friedrich Merz (CDU) im Kanzleramt auf eine weggeschlossene Geheimbewertung des BND stieße, würde das kritische Fragen nach sich ziehen. Zudem hat der BND seine Schlussfolgerungen Ende 2024 mit der CIA geteilt. Was die Deutschen denken, weiß also bald auch die Trump-Regierung. /
/ They are in a hurry, likely related to to political changes: If a new government under Merz (center-right) found the secret report locked away in the office of the chancellor, it would lead to critical questions. Furthermore the BDN shared its conclusions with the CIA in december 2024. What the germans thing, the Trump administration will know soon after.
I do wonder if the decision to tell the americans really came before the worries about the new german government, especially with Trump already elected. I certainly thought about the timing right away.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
28d ago
Sir Gawain and the Green Knight
That is not how I remember that one.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
28d ago
The problem is that there was no Good Populist. Something like the Trump base has been around for a while - but somehow, every candidate that appealed to them had big problems, ones that they should care about even by their own values. And this extends even beyond just american populists: populism is the secret political weapon that the likes of Orban can stay in power by fulfilling. Noone ever uses this tactic for good or even neutral ends. Noone decent ever gives populists what they want, you may at best string them along with empty promises and even thats kind of sus.
I dont see how you could have an explanation for the above, that doesnt change the meaning of "Dont you wish you had a better spokesman" into something unrecognisable.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
28d ago
That's as may be, but it was destabilising enough to cause World War II, where Hitler's stated casus belli was precisely protecting the rights of ethnic Germans outside the internationally recognised borders of Germany.
What was destabilising about it was that a Germany that did control all the majority german areas was too powerful for France and Britain. By that criterion, most any process of border drawing other than the Vienna congress will be "destablising" sometimes.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
28d ago
Losing WW2 was the only good thing Hitler ever did for Germany.
Its not clear how high the risks of communist takeover were without him, but that might count too.
Sure, one requires resources such as rare earth elements for the tech stuff, but the real money is in building the tech, not in mining minerals.
You dont need to mine them, but you do need to have control over your own supply. China, hardly known for environmentalism, invests significantly into solar, because having it increases your ability to tell both oil states and the global maritime power to suck it. I suspect this contributes to the US/Europe differences on green energy as well.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
29d ago
This principle has been foundational to post-WW2 order.
In this context, "justifications" work to some extent just by being restricted. It is in fact possible to have ambitions which are neither in line with international norms nor unlimited conquest, and thats what hes arguing.
While Western interventions have questionable legality, Russia's annexation of territory represents a different category of violation. Iraq wasn't annexed, whatever other flaws that campaign had.
Russian goals from here may be achieved by instating a puppet government in Ukraine that they support against enemies internal and external. I think this wouldnt make an important difference, and hasnt been raised as an option largely because everyone agrees with me. In fact, Russia only annexed the northern parts of their defacto 2014 conquest sometime into 2022 - which seems to me like they calculated better odds of keeping it from doing so at that point.
There is a difference between that and Iraq, which can be seen from how quickly the US let their client collapse again among other things, but Afghanistan seems like its getting there. Whats the difference between indefinite occupation and annexation, especially for a non-democratic state?
Is there an explanation of how they got those numbers as well? The excel offered is static and AFAICT has no additional info above the site. A few questions: Am I reading it correctly that they expect no compounding effect, just one multiplier? How is the GDP effect only -0.6%, if the price level is +2.3%? And Im assuming the GDP effect counts the fiscal revenue already, since otherwise its net-positive.
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