Lizzardspawn
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User ID: 594
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Didn't imply anything of the sort - just that nate just made a post about polymarket overestimating Trump and then his trends moved into the same direction, just a day or two later - so lets see if it will get to 60 in next few days.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Bident endorsed Kamala instantly. Obama delayed his endorsement almost a week. The rumor mill was that: Bident was threatened with 25th section 4 if he doesn't drop. Eventually he folded. Obama was considering her slightly less charismatic, skilled, electable, and competent than a 2x4 piece of lumber. His plan was to have a mini convention and then someone that is not fucking kamala harris - to come forward. And biden immediate endorsement threw mightily off the rails those plans, so Obama wing were stuck with a candidate that will make their lives harder.
Because someone like Mark Kelly would have wiped the floor with trump without breaking a sweat.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Latest Nate Silver polls are Trump 55, so it seems that polymarket picks up trends (and is noisier) somewhat faster than the model. Or that Nate Silver has slight Harris bias.
I don't think that polymarket can be manipulated (delusional yes though) - it is too niche to move voters.
What is interesting is that the media is moving slowly against her - I think that this is just a backfire of not giving at least token respect to the journalists/keyfabe. But coronations have risks. I think that Biden's Kamala endorsement was just a brilliant fuck you to obama.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
At this point the West should stop all kind of aid for ukraine for couple of months just to teach this loudmouth who is really in charge. And make it official - no face savings.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Here is a brainteaser for you - in polymarket it is 60/40 for Trump, Nate Silver thinks it is 50/50 with a hair towards Trump. Assuming Nate is correct and polymarket is too bullish - is there a strategy that will guarantee making a couple of bucks no matter if Kamala or Trump win?
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Why are colorado and new mexico blue-ish instead of red-ish politically leaning states? It is not what one would expect if they just look at the maps, and are quite in the middle of the flyover country?
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
So I was a little shaken up about it. If I were driving alone I would have scooped him up onto the hood and destroyed his bike.
You break his legs and throw him in the traffic
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
It makes you stupid. I have seen people who recover all right after years of heavy use. They become snappier.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Is this the same nytimes that blew out of proportion the story about the kids buried in Canada schoolyards?
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
What is the strongest argument against "you will own nothing and be happy" as a concept?" Ideally an argument that can be expressed in a few sentences of average complexity.
I love owning stuff and being self sufficient. I can play starcraft I and diablo 2 the way I like and as long as I want. I can play starcraft II and diablo 4 the way blizzard wants me to for as long as they allow me to. All for the same price.
If you live in a rented, pre-furnished apartment you are far more flexible if you want a change of scenery, to expand your living space, or need to move to a new city to pursue opportunities. Home ownership introduces lots of complexity and presents an illiquid asset even if it appreciates.
Here is the kicker. You can do the same with owning home. The rent of the place you own covers the rent of the place you want to live (roughly).
Same can apply to, say, smartphones, which upgrade so fast that 'owning' one almost doesn't make sense as it becomes outdated in < 1 year.
We are not in 2012 anymore. You can reasonably expect to extract 4-5 years of life from a top shelf phone and to use it for something for at least a decade. The iphone yearly refresh is just a welfare program to ensure that older men can get regular blowjobs from younger women.
But the whole this is that when you rent something you are free to do with it what the real owner allows you. So you are dependent. Every dependency is vulnerability and the less there are in your life the better you are.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
I think a lot of it is his propensity for impulsive or poor decisions, such as trying to pull out of NATO.
EU has twice the people of US, comparable GDP and whatnot. It totally should be able to match US contribution 50% and have comparable forces.
They don't deserve protection. Saying as an EU citizen.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
I have been doing it couple of times. Not a big deal if you stay hydrated. The first 72 hours are hard. After that it is bearable. The refeeding is the only challenging part.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Also, they were imbued with an extraordinarily strong sense of patriotism such that they never wanted to move away from Liberia for more than a few years for school or special training.
Do they also have a strong sense of honesty, integrity and work ethics?
It is corruption that fucks up the developing countries. I have yet to see any kind of correlation between IQ and corruptibility. The problem of Africa and LATAM is corruption, wrong ideology - some of the smartest humans of earth were communists, not lack of IQ.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
That's fucking genius. Unethical, but genius.
Why unethical?
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
I’ll disagree with you on the point that the Arab Spring itself wasn’t about democracy.
It was about poverty. Higher grain prices meant that for the first time a lot of people didn't had food security.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
True. But the rule of thumb that the side that is unskewing the polls is losing usually holds true.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
It is already reversing to the mean and the NYT/Sienna poll that dropped shows her at +3 - and according to Nate Silver this is the most reliable pollster right now.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Anyone knows of some good estimates about the Iron Dome capacity/expense and how big of a barrage must be flung at it for it to be saturated. To me it seems that all Israel adversaries do their best to throw some token rockets and then do nothing. Possible tactic to create the fake complacency that enabled oct 7th?
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
but then adults throw that shit completely out the window when it comes to politics.
Couple of reasons - first politics are identity lately. Second there are basic disagreements and there is no external pressure that will actually put the culture war sides on the negotiating table even grudgingly. There is no respect and no one is willing to earn the other side's respect - so agree to disagree and amicable relationships are just not possible.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
I think that there are different failure modes - conceptual and execution. To me it seems that Megalopolis fails as execution whereas Joker 2 was doomed as conception - if they instead have decided to just make it Natural Born Killers: the musical with Harley and the Joker amplifying each other's descent into madness it would have worked.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
nd deliberately did this as a "humiliation ritual" just to punish the audience, whom they hate - is ridiculous and a sign of how far down a rabbithole this sort of "THEY are out to get you" thinking can take you
Then why "Put a chick in it and make it gay" and some other related tropes have such big predictive power about what we will see in the sequel/reboot. And predictive power in the box office bombing.
Why does studios imitate one another in failure (launching even insanely stupid things like the monsterverse could be explained by trying to imitate success), but deconstructing the heroes of days of yore and losing money is hardly worth imitating. But at some point the people that are creating those things are more activists than businessmen/craftsmen or are part of a hive mind. Thousand activists acting in the same way even if no central coordination is present is close enough to conspiracy for me. The way the left leaning media can switch their talking points overnight is a good example. Probably what we see should be called oligospiracy and it is to conspiracy the same thing as oligopoly is to monopoly.
Well - it was the first non shitty comic book movie since thor ragnarock, the main performance was amazing, and there is something utterly enjoyable in watching someone that is only kicked when trying to play by the rules finally snapping. And the realization that if enough people snap simultaneously it will be hard to stop them.
Probably that was what scared Hollywood - that the small people filled with angst liked it and liked the protagonist.
People like to throw taxi driver, but I think that falling down is somewhat overlooked as the inspiration.
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
Old fashioned - default specs - any crap bourbon like jim beam white label, orange bitters and the syrup used is the syrup from the 1886 pemberton coke recipe.
Basil smash - basil extract, gin, syrup, lemon juice
Lizzardspawn
1mo ago
The new joker is so bad that both critics and audience score at rotten tomatoes agree at 33% . In a way I am impressed how they achieved that with the talent and budget that they had. It is not exactly culture war because in culture war usually there is sizeable gap between the two score.
The point is not to punish Zelensky but to humiliate him.
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