Instead I should just invent data that conforms to my preferred reality?
Ioper
2mo ago
Incentives decide this. Change the incentives and the behaviour changes. It could still be women's choice, just under a different incentive structure.
Ioper
2mo ago
On that we agree then. What I object to is the framing of this being the result of what women "want", I don't believe it is.
That people are less satisfied than even under the previous bad system should be a massive wake up call.
Ioper
2mo ago
It also makes sense to pay attention to women material and social conditions so that they can do things that both make them satisfied and that is critical to the continued survival of society.
Just throwing our hands up in the air and saying that this is women's choice when it both seems contrary to their wishes and hurts society seems strange to me. Its not like we're asking people to give up all other pursuits and dedicate their entire life to just raising children, we're asking for 2-3 children per couple.
Ioper
2mo ago
But that is exactly what is happening. People are going for immediate happiness over long-term satisfaction.
They're reaching for the local maximum by not having children.
Ioper
2mo ago
I think it's good women have the right to control their own reproduction.
Women have far fewer children than they want and have lower life satisfaction though. Are they really getting what they want? Are they really in control?
I'm not convinced that you have to limit access to contraception to get birthrates to replacement rates but the current situation doesn't even seem preferable to the situation where access was more limited.
Perhaps I wasn't clear, it's not only the absolute rate that has collapsed but the relative rate as well. The fertility differential between natives and the foreign born has been remarkably stable over time, until now. The fob immigrants are now having as few children per woman as native swedes. If people from other countries have as different standards as you claim then the differential should have increased, not declined.
This isn't just some longer trend of fertility decline, something has happened, starting in 2019 or 2015, depending on how you look at things.
It probably won't move the needle much, but punitive taxes for the single and childless seem in order, with corresponding rewards for parents.
On this at least we agree, but if it isn't combined with reform of the housing market it risks being overly punitive. On the other hand if the punitive taxation comes first then pressure for land and planning reform (or some other "solution") would likely sharply increase as well.
Ioper
2mo ago
A few things to note: The tfr in Sweden as of 2023 was actually even worse and down to a new record low of 1.45. Furthermore, the tfr of foreign born women has historically been a good deal higher than native born women but that has now collapsed down to the same low level, suggesting to me that something is hitting all prospective parents hard, regardless of culture.
This extra low level of fertility is probably a temporary state of things that is both part of cyclical trends in Swedish fertility and the currently harsh economic environment with tough combination of very high housing prices (we were hitting a breaking point even before the pandemic), very high private borrowing to finance said high housing prices, interest rates increases that increased people's monthly payments for their housing by some +300%, an inability to sell your house/apartment to buy a new one (trapping prospective parents in too small housing) and high unemployment. If you're not already in the housing market (hopefully with locked in interest rates) and have a good job (unemployment is high and increasing) then you're fucked in the short/medium term. All this affects prospective parents the worst and they often can't wait too much because of delayed childbirth.
Going forward either fertility goes up as interest rates and unemployment goes down, like previous fertility dips associated with cost of living crises, or fertility stays low because our housing situation has become as fucked or worse than in places like Italy. There are arguments for both.
Ioper
2mo ago
It still exists, but it's filled by illegal immigrants getting paid scraps under the table.
Ioper
2mo ago
I don't think the analysis needs to go futher than immigration. This is nothing new in Europe and is a literally continent wide movement, with Germany being slightly behind the curve.
The current level and form of immigration is disliked by a supermajority of the population, and reviled to an extent that it trumps all other concerns for some smaller percentage (maybe 20-30%) and they're willing to vote for absolutely anyone that promises to stop the flood and doesn't have a track record of lying about the subject.
The only thing novel here is Wagenknechts party coming in and being anti-immigration from the left.
I have kids and feel like they are the best decision of my life.
I would say that you should prepare as much as you reasonably can beforehand if you don't expect to get any support. Alternatively, is it at all possible to move closer to your wife's family if they're nice and supportive? Would that solve the house situation as well maybe? Is the lack of support that makes your wife apprehensive?
Ioper
2mo ago
That may be but it's hard to overstate how much of an improvement these metrics are to the rest of new Trek.
Ioper
2mo ago
In star trek tradition the first episodes (and by extension the first season) were the worst of the series and things get better from there on. The female character doesn't get to just be an uncriticised girl boss that does no wrong and the male character isn't just a pathetic punching bag. I watched the first episode and though it was a bit shit but pushed on because there seemed to be such widespread praise of the series even from places that were kind of primed to shit on new Trek.
Ioper
2mo ago
There has been an exponential increase in nepo-babies though, which is in a way only natural as time goes on and the industry grew but it also shows the lack of meritocratic guardrails in the industry.
Ioper
2mo ago
The more recent series have felt like they were written by writers who resent this optimistic view of the future - specifically, the idea that a largely Western, liberal democratic society could actually produce something good. And so they have painfully deconstructed it, so now the Federation is shit, all the characters we knew and loved are dead or assholes, and there is certainly no "fun" to be had in a universe where Western Enlightenment still holds sway.
I imagine this is a large part of why lower decks was so well received. Unlike the other shows it sticks with the original positive premise, even if it's modern, progressive and deconstructing star trek.
I don't think there is necessarily a contradiction there, especially for nostalgic media we loved in our youth. You can simultaneously enjoy the utopian idealism of a sci-fi show and don't have that reflect what you believe what current policy would be effective, especially not in all areas.
Ioper
2mo ago
Might be but I don't think he's keeping too much hidden. Seems like a slightly lapsed traditional liberal that's keeping his head down to me.
Ioper
2mo ago
Literally everyone I've talked to about episode 8-9 irl have thought they were atrocious. The apolagia for the new movies seems like an (almost) entirely online contrarian/"AstroTurf" thing to me. Perhaps it's different in parts of America though.
Ioper
2mo ago
GRR Martin is a British author with no real Hollywood connections
Are the two people with the same name? The author of the game of thrones is American.
Ioper
2mo ago
Go swimming? I did for a while and it worked well enough but I eventually stopped because I found it was so boring.
Ioper
2mo ago
If we only look at PPP terms, yes. Its unclear to me how much their much higher working hours actully contributes to GDP, but still, becoming Spain wouldn't be the end of the world if it meant not working yourself to death and not having a tfr of 0.55.
I'm also wondering how accurate the PPP numbers really are, given that things like the big Mac index puts them about on par of Sweden. Surely McDonald's couldn't survive if they were twice as expensive as everything else. Also, they are a small country and will inevitably have to import quite a bit of things.
Do you believe I'm a conservative or that I'm arguing for any of that?
More options
Context Copy link