There is also the possibility that the underlying cause for the bias could have abated. Support for Trump can have normalised in poll answering demographics for instance.
I still find it likely that some underestimation is going on but I wouldn't be surprised if the poll aggregate is largely accurate or even overestimating Trump.
I used to rent and that organisation had a maintainance budget for every unit that was financed through the rent payments. This could then be used for redecorating, like new wallpapers, and/or repairs.
I thought the system was pretty decent and if not for how the housing market extremely strongly incentivises home ownership I might have stayed in such a housing arrangement.
Ioper
1mo ago
Man, I thought it was a bit strange that someone wouldn't know what BMI is but who am I to judge? Rereading your post I know realise that you wrote "I have no idea what *the* BMI or fat percentages are." rather than "I have no idea what BMI or fat percentages are."
...
As for the fast I think I'm mostly ready to roll for when my wife and kids are going to stay with her parents at their countryside home for a week in a couple of weeks. It seems like it will be easier to do this when I'm not having to cook meals for the family that I don't get to eat ;)
Ioper
1mo ago
Thanks for your reply and your experiences!
BMI is short for Body Mass Index. Its your weight in kilograms divided by the square of your height in meters. In your case 109.2/(1.85^2)=31.91
BMI is medical screening tool used to categorize people by the healthyness of their body weight. 18.5-25 is normal/healthy weight, 25-30 is overweight, 30-35 is obesity, and so on. Your most recent fast took you from obesity (31.91) to normal/healthy weight (23.11).
Body fat percentage is literally what it sounds like, the percentage of the body that is fat. There are plenty of ways to measure this and most half decent modern digital scales can give you a reasonable estimate. Some people prefer this to BMI, as it can be more accurate if you have an unusual body or if you're competing in certain sports.
Ioper
1mo ago
May I ask what pur BMI/fat percentage was before the fast(s)?
Also how did you do refeeding?
Ioper
1mo ago
One can also supplement this with actions that correlate with the desired feelings, since feelings are both up- and downsteam from behaviour. In this case that could mean you congratulate or even give presents to people who've got some recent win.
Ioper
1mo ago
Ioper
1mo ago
Just general tips and information. When I looked online I encountered either a lot of woo or seemingly extreme caution and didn't want to wade through that.
What I'm looking for is a bit of reset and to jump start losing some weight, as well as just seeing if I can do it, but I don't want to make it unnecessarily hard or hurt myself.
As far as I've understood it, it should be safe unless you malnourished and if you slowly ease back into eating solid food afterwards.
Ioper
1mo ago
Have you only consumed water or have you supplemented with anything and/or allowed yourself things like tea/coffee?
I have been thinking about doing a 3-7 day water fast.
Does anyone here have any experience doing something like this?
Ioper
1mo ago
He also made the point that prediction markets are vulnerable to whale movements such that they cannot sufficiently clear in the short term, meaning you shouldn't weigh drastic short term movements of these markets very highly as indications of market consensus.
If the prediction markets are onto something it'll show up in the polls, otherwise things will reverse to the mean as the market clears.
Ioper
1mo ago
Very low. On top of various regulatory burdens, nuclear has a major NIMBY problem where even people who like nuclear power often don't want it near them. Nuclear waste disposal facilities are even more contentious.
Is that really true (or a practical problem)? When Sweden started seriously investigating the viability of building nuclear power after the most recent election they found that willingness of counties to host nuclear power plants really wasn't a problem. Plenty were very willing, both counties that already had plants and others.
Obviously not everyone wants to have nuclear in their county but that doesn't really matter.
Ioper
1mo ago
I have used it with some success to translate my pseudo code in one language to another that I'm mostly unfamiliar with. It isn't perfect but for this purpose it's usually superior to stackoverflow because it will produce something specific to my problem, even if it doesn't fully work. For writing regular code it's not very useful as anything more than autocomplete and sometimes checking for syntactic errors.
I've also used AI picture generation for some presentations but this isn't really a form of productivity increase and is mostly because I think it's fun.
I've tried using it for text generation but I've found it to be lacking. Its kind of similar to trying to hand something off to an Indian consultant, you need spend so much time specifying what you want that you lose time compared to just doing it yourself.
Ioper
1mo ago
They can also function as useful negotiating partners and as a way to limit wildcat strikes/unofficial industrial action and keep business running. Which ironically is very important in key sectors and bottlenecks in the economy, such as docks.
An example of this working is Sweden which despite it's very large number of unionised workers has among the lowest amount of strikes in the west.
Ioper
1mo ago
They won't because evidently the losses to such incidents are not worth hiring somebody to man a checkout counter, much less pushing the prosecution of a <$50 shoplifting case.
The places around me that have kept their self-check out counters almost always have some staff at hand that man multiple counters at once, both to supervise and help out if there are any issues. Perhaps 1 staff member per 5+ counters.
Does FEMA need additional funding? Use of the fund was approved yesterday and as far as I understood it the damage, while severe and tragic, hit mostly relatively low density areas. This isn't a hurricane Katrina situation, right?
Ioper
1mo ago
North American housing crises are manufactured.
Where (in the industrialised world) are they not?
I’m not sure how deliberate it is, but I find it kinda weird just how often the values of the elite just so happen to be things that are absurdly destructive when practiced by lower class people. Not getting and staying married, not working hard and striving at every chance, not avoiding drugs and alcohol, behaving wildly in general, and so on — all of these things will make it much harder for a poor person to gain wealth.
Its not weird at all. First off, money is a great insulator against the consequences of poor behaviour. Secondly, those aren't really the values of the elite. The higher your class the higher the likelihood that you stay married, people don't strive at every opportunity and people in over-consume drugs less.
Finally the things listed makes it harder for everyone to gain wealth (except striving), but the already wealthy do not need to, which is another reason why they can have a degenerate lifestyle without as disastrous consequences.
The elite value the freedom to do what they want and don't care about what happens to other people (or rationalise their preference as an improvement for everyone, damn observable reality), unfortunately if you're poor and without strong willpower you're more more vulnerable to the available vices than the elite. Which of course doesn't make things better, it's arguably even worse.
The second reason is to create a layer of cultural mulch around the pathways to success. The truth is that nobody actually gets success without an extremely strong drive to strive for it.
I don't think this is true, although i guess it depends on what your criteria for "extremely strong drive" and "success" is.
I know multiple people with only a moderate drive for success that have become dollar decamillionaires and two that are dollar centimillionaires.
The people with extremely strong drive for success are doing very well too of course but not necessarily as good or better. At some point it seems that drive and intelligence hits sharply diminishing returns and you end up with somewhat luck-based results. This goes for both career and startup success.
You need enough drive and intelligence to get a seat at the table but once there you get to roll largely the same dice as the rest of the guys there.
I think this is also why the media doesn’t like Tiger Mothers. Those women and their kids unironically believe that striving is good and that puts them in competition with their betters. The Asian kids who study more than you are trouble. And if white parents start doing this as well, it’s a problem.
Once again I disagree. I think people don't like Tiger moms is because they engage in zero sum crab bucket behaviour, which if generalised pretty much amounts to torture of the youth, without material or spiritual benefits on the group level. IE. their zero-sum behaviour becomes (very)negative-sum if generalised.
Ioper
1mo ago
How is it a waste? You should use that energy and drive to improve yourself so that you can attract a mate. Killing it seems counterproductive as it would likely passify you further.
Ioper
1mo ago
Its been a while but:
- Being unhygienic and smelly
- Leaving trash everywhere they go
- Almost always wearing very casual and dirty clothes
- Getting into loud public fights about inane shit.
- Getting drunk on weekdays and getting into fistfights at the local pub
- Doing drugs in public
- Spitting indoors
- Stealing from the local supermarket
- Wearing way too much makeup and waxing their eyebrows
- Harassing women
- Very publicly running their prostitution business out of their apartment.
- Constantly abrasive towards everyone
- Having phone calls (or watching/listening to media) on speaker on public transit
- Stealing laundry times (if you have a communal laundry room), and fighting with you about it when confronted
- Constant, unrelenting lies about their poor behaviour
- Casual destruction and defacement of public property
It's currently beneficial to be 115 iq rather than 100 iq but it could certainly be possible that such a big jump in iq in a single generation risks various other deleterious effects when selecting so strongly for only one thing.
And what if we expand this to include people who have a median familial iq of 85 or even lower. Should the target still be 115? How big a rate of increase is really healthy? How hard should we really select?
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