Gloster80256
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User ID: 1453
Gloster80256
2yr ago
Hmm... What I'm willing to guess at:
IF there isn't a major failure of the technical side of the system caused by the personnel discontinuity (which is something I would classify as an unknown unknown, very hard to put a % on - because this risk, in some unpredictable form, might or might not be lurking somewhere in the sprawl, depending on how it was built, maintained and handed over to Team 2.0) I think a year from now, Twitter keeps on running, probably still unprofitably or roughly breaking even (costs down, but ad revenue also down), with a moderation policy perhaps a hair looser than anteMusk and noticeably less woke-bent. It remains in his possession, but he personally will no longer be involved with the daily operations.
The user base composition will be a test of the Scott Alexander theory of liberal v. neutral spaces... With the coming Amnesty of the Banned, we will see if witches end up pushing out the normies or vice versa.
Twitter-as-business is very much not about the code but about community management - both on the user side and the advertiser side.
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