FeepingCreature
No bio...
User ID: 311
FeepingCreature
15d ago
I'd say do at least 3.5 Sonnet and whichever model of o1 is out by then. Sonnet is the best "classical" code llm (imo!), though you may have to prompt it pretty hard to get it to try a oneshot. But o1 is designed for oneshots and is the only one that may be a paradigm shift in ai design. It's been worse than sonnet at some tasks, but this may play to its strengths. Also if adding a Python interpreter, implore the models to add timeouts. :)
FeepingCreature
19d ago
I mean, I'm not proposing a model but an empirical observation. If the Republican machine could replicate trump to replace him they would have, considering how much they dislike him.
I don't think that "charisma matters in politics" is news. Plenty of American presidents have had mass appeal, just for instance Obama. But the Dems cannot produce Obamas anymore than the Reps can produce Trumps. If that's solved -- sure, but there's no reason to me to think that Trump moves us closer to solving it. American politics has had centuries to codify charisma and hasn't managed to do more than come across it in the wild.
FeepingCreature
19d ago
No because Trump is an outlier. Trump-style populism relies on his charisma; it's not replicable at scale. Not even Trump could build a machine that produces Trumps; and his party is not interested in doing so at any rate.
FeepingCreature
19d ago
I think it's vibe-based. Culture doesn't have enough room for more than one bit, or more than one direction on the lever. Because trans is left and anti-trans is right, moving the lever towards trans moves it in a leftist direction (pro women), and moving the lever against trans moves it in a rightist direction (against child grooming).
From that perspective, "I am against trans participation in women's sports but for 18+ transition and cautiously in favor of puberty blockers given parental approval or a three month waiting period or idk" would simply have too many bits; no serious politician would dedicate that much cultural mindspace to the topic. "Against trans to protect women's sports" is already relatively nuanced. (Yes, the mind weeps, but that's how it is.)
FeepingCreature
19d ago
To a first approximation, liberal = trans because "my body, my choice". "Bad for society, thus should be prevented" is usually the illiberal take.
FeepingCreature
19d ago
Compromise: Move MLK day to October and put the election on it. I'm sure the Reverend would be fine with it. Republicans are happy because it doesn't create a new holiday and also it reduces the stature given to a black guy, Democrats are happy because black people and minorities get time off to vote and also it ties MLK even more tightly into the civic mythos, plus they can put pictures of him up in the voting room.
FeepingCreature
19d ago
National election day!
FeepingCreature
20d ago
Well sure, but it's still wrong to say that baptists are pro-smuggling.
I think the way to rescue this is to hold that a person has privileged insight into their own gender but can still be mistaken.
The existence of post-transition trans people who are by their account much less in conflict with their gender perception demonstrates that that there is sometimes privileged insight that is true, or at least beneficial to assume. The existence of trans people who detransition doesn't disprove the existence of those people, it merely establishes that the correlation isn't perfect.
I believe none of those are the reasons, though they're close.
for depopulation purposes
It's not "in order to depopulate", it's "because we don't hold population as a virtue, it fails to apply as an argument to prevent this".
to make money in the medical industry
You think the average leftist cares about making big medical companies money?
to give more power for government to intrude in the family
I think this is a general mistake with attributing intentions to other people. Leftists don't think trans is good because it lets them strengthen the government's intrusion, they think the government being able to intrude is good because it lets them support trans kids.
If X has the result of "Y", while you think "anti-Y", it's common to say "they're doing X to support Y." But those disagreements are very often a question of relative ranking of X and Y; it's usually "they think X is more important than Y, so that they will accept an anti-Y result to bolster X". Compare pro-life vs anti-life, pro-choice vs anti-choice.
FeepingCreature
20d ago
If I find examples of people who do appear to be claiming that men can be women per se, would you change your mind? For example, people who insist that someone who was universally regarded as a man ten years ago is in the present a woman
But this is arguing that "universal regard" is the definition of gender. Those sorts of assumptions are exactly what is being disagreed with. That's why there's "assigned gender at birth".
FeepingCreature
20d ago
"Let's think step by step," the angel said dubiously.
FeepingCreature
20d ago
Okay yes but they don't actually visit us. Even if this is all true, the people seeing demons in this worldline are still crazy.
FeepingCreature
21d ago
Good point!
But then the point of "satanic religions of old", for a Christian, would be equivalent to saying "religions of old", surely? Because there is only one God, so every non-judaic religion is either fraudulent or satanic. Or is it "the set of religions considered demon-worshipping by the OT Israelites"?
Or is the argument more something like "LGBT has become like Molechism"?
FeepingCreature
21d ago
Ah, that's fair. So for instance the TPM could detect a patched bios by polling the actual eeprom for a checksum? Or just signature check the whole thing. It wouldn't even have to use the BIOS to talk to the hardware in the first place. The BIOS just has to go "okay, you have the hardware, I won't touch the bus for the next x ms."
I guess that's pretty convincing in theory. (Do I trust that it's actually working like that? Is it even on?)
FeepingCreature
21d ago
No I don't think so.
It sounds like you're not saying "we know they did" but "well they would have, wouldn't they." IMO we actually cannot safely assume that at all.
I mean, they aren't? The Bible does not to my knowedge list any old religion that worships Satan. The only Satan-worshippers show up in Revelation.
Particularly for instance Moloch is not said to be identical with Satan.
Also, here's Claude Sonnet (AI):
The Israelites would more likely have seen Molech as:
- A false god (but still a distinct entity)
- A "demon" or "shedim" (as mentioned in Deuteronomy 32:17)
- Simply "an abomination"
The strong identification of pagan deities with Satan seems to have developed more in later theological traditions, particularly in Christian interpretation.
Which matches my knowledge.
FeepingCreature
22d ago
Conversely, if Kamala wins, does that mean you underestimated the power of Orange Man Bad?
FeepingCreature
23d ago
Sure. But every time an exploit comes out that chains together like seven distinct vulnerabilities, people ask "how was this possible? they seem to pull out a new security hole at every single layer of security." And the answer is normalization of deviance, ie. "that's bad but we still have more layers of defense".
FeepingCreature
23d ago
A modified BIOS would cause the OS to reject the boot attempt
I don't know how the security architecture works in detail, but that really seems like the sort of thing a modified BIOS could work around with a strategic byte write to a known memory address. It's ~impossible to defend yourself against an attacker running on a higher ring than you.
FeepingCreature
23d ago
I mean, I could turn around and say if you knew that somebody was planning something nefarious but couldn't prove it, "accidentally" releasing the passwords to the public is also a clever way to increase common knowledge of the attack vector, thus making it more likely that people will look in the right place during the investigation.
FeepingCreature
23d ago
There has been a lot written about hallucination because some people want chatbots to be worse than they are. With experience you can generally tell when you are asking a question that a LLM will hallucinate about.
FeepingCreature
23d ago
This just seems 1:1 equivalent to a citation.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Prediction market links:
- Trump disqualified after being elected (5%)
- Elon arrested, some very schizo results on this one. Apparently half his expected probability of arrest is between 2026 and 2030? This market looks to be trading on a "well it has to happen SOME time" theory. Honestly, I think these are bizarrely high - it kind of makes me want to open an account.
I mean, that kind of sounds like you're saying it's provably not a 1:1 simulation of a human brain.
What you're describing is measurable evidence of new physics. Every physicist in the world would want to buy you a beer.
More options
Context Copy link