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FeepingCreature


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 00:42:25 UTC
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User ID: 311

FeepingCreature


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 00:42:25 UTC

					

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User ID: 311

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Prediction market links:

  • Trump disqualified after being elected (5%)
  • Elon arrested, some very schizo results on this one. Apparently half his expected probability of arrest is between 2026 and 2030? This market looks to be trading on a "well it has to happen SOME time" theory. Honestly, I think these are bizarrely high - it kind of makes me want to open an account.

Also, note how smoothly criticism of Israel has become criticism of Jews instead.

In every other situation that'd be true, but saying "Israel is a country of Jews" is hardly antisemitism, more tautology.

I went and looked at the POISE 2008 trial and okay, it does look pretty convincing, but that one didn't actually filter for cardiac surgery. Without that study the results look a lot more balanced. Am I missing something here? It seems this is barely a meta-analysis, it's just "POISE and some others".

What I love about your comment is that it truly is "right is the new left". You could swap some words around and 1:1 have complaints about minority representation circa ten years ago. The stuff about hostile environments heightening objectively-small slights could be from an explanation of microaggressions, etc. I think you could work this out into a general theory of social progress where some tribe of particularists (progressives in this case) develops theory based on concrete allied cases and later on universalists (liberals) generalize it to their enemies.

I have no good opinion on that. I think it's a novel thing, so I can't reason about it by analogy, and I don't think it can be considered accounted for under the law in any sort of originalist reasoning or even at all. I think it's a thing where we just have to make up our minds and decide what we want from scratch.

Eh, I'm not sure that's it. I think it's less that we refuse to contradict them, as that they've come to be in charge properly and so we don't attempt to hinder them. You may gripe about your orders but you still carry them out.

Personally, I believe the court should just carve a distinction between curated and carried speech. There is a speech interest in, say, a supermarket curating the newspapers that they carry; there is not a speech interest in a supermarket excluding topics of discussion between shoppers, even though they take part inside their venue. Nobody interprets, say, their Facebook feed as being a communication from Facebook. IMO this should cover both "direct" and "group" messages. There may still be other grounds to block it, such as a stated or implied disinterest on the part of the recipient, or curation by instruction of the recipient, but not venue 1A grounds, because nobody reasonably interprets them to be the voice of the venue to start with.

Yeah but messing with the dominant search index of the country to censor certain topics is pretty much as close to "he who controls the present controls the past" as a company can get. So does the Dalle diversity scandal for that matter.

Same here as the other commenter: Ronald Reagan, Robert Fico, Roosevelt, Gerald Ford, the Pope, Bob Marley, Truman, Seward, Reagan, President Reagan.

Do you still get Trump if you try it now?

Huh. I also cannot get any Google autocomplete for "trump shot", "trump assassina...", "trump secret s...", "trump inju..."... Google clearly knows of these topics, but they somehow haven't made their way into their search history model.

This is at least very fishy.

I think netstack literally means "not being the actual person Donald Trump".

I disagree with this - the entire reason LessWrong got as big as it got was that Eliezer very much "brought the fire" in the name of advocating for his vision of correct thought. I don't think you can read, say, the Zombies sequence and argue it's cold and passionless.

"What does the god-damned collapse postulate have to do for physicists to reject it? Kill a god-damned puppy?"

I upvoted the parent because I think it's entirely in keeping with that rhetorical lineage.

I think Covid is and always was significantly more infectious. Per-case deadliness doesn't matter if a virus can only get a small fraction of humanity to start with. And of course, the deadliness estimate for swine flu depend on the actual number of infections, which may be underreported. So either it's deadly but not very virulent, or it's virulent (but still less virulent than Covid!) but not very deadly. The original Covid had both virulence and deadliness, which justified the extreme response.

The highest estimates for H1N1 I can find are 10% of the population being infected. Do you know anybody who's never had Covid? Google puts the US at 77% with antibodies as measured in 2022. That's not comparable.

I mean, we do think of it that way now. During the regime, aiui Germans mostly tried pretty hard to not think about it at all.

I genuinely don't think there are all that many places that allow both white nationalism and criticism of white nationalism, especially within a liberal conversational framework. DSL maybe, as another rat fork.

"Sniper peaking on the roof" like damn, he really enjoys his work

I don't need a scientific study to prove that fat people tend to perform worse on typical willpower tasks like "don't eat a second piece of pie, even though you want to and you know it will be bad for you."

Of course, it's then very possible that their failure is wanting it more, not resisting it less.

Paying 500 dollars a month for a drug that stops you from feeling intense shame and also improves your health, energy, longevity etc. is supposed to not qualify under "organizing your life better"?

Sure, so maybe there's multiple reasons for why people get fat and your having been fat doesn't necessarily give you insight into the difficulties of every fat person?

So you agree that your comment is misleading...? Like, I'm not talking about Tracing here. I don't know why you are.

You just spent weeks digging through old grievances dating back a decade

Either it is an old grievance or it is an ongoing problem. Whatever Tracing wrote has no impact on this.

Okay, I'm not 100% sure what you're saying here, but none of it seems to have anything to do with what I said on the object level.

Just as it's misleading to dismiss criticisms Tracing's conduct during and since the LibOfTikTok affair as old grudge, given that a part of the bad behavior was the non-repentance, which is itself ongoing behavior.

So...? That's not a counterargument. Misleading comments or misleading articles don't justify misleading responses here. An ongoing problem is not an old grievance.

Uttermost nitpick: "subsistence farming", as in you can farm just enough to subsist on.

Though arguably with stuff like bioethanol we've also moved beyond sustenance farming...

I think it's misleading to call it "old grievances dating back a decade" when it's ongoing behavior that began a decade ago.

It's like... some people experience dysphoria, right? They are in a body that matches their gender, and if they were in a body that didn't match their gender, they'd feel something was wrong. That's what'd make them trans in that situation. We may model that as two facts: they have a body, and they have a body model, and when the body model tries to match to the body and fails, it generates error signals that are experienced as dysphoria. That is, they are cis - body-aligned - if they have a body that matches their model, and trans - body-unaligned - when their body does not.

Cis-by-default people have a body, and they have a body model, but the body model is a model of whatever their body happens to be. If they put themselves into situations where they experience a body with a different sex, ie. mirror experiments, VR, really good imagination, then their body map just updates to the new schema. They're cis - body aligned - not because their body map matches their body, but because their body map tracks their body. If you gave a cbd man a female body, or a cbd woman a male body, they'd go "huh, neat" and move on with their lives - sex-changed but still cis. They might even swap pronouns, purely on the basis of "well, it's female now, innit. Just look at it." Or if not, it'll be on the basis of something like thinking that gender shouldn't be about sex at all.

As an AGP transhumanist, I identify (in the literal sense of "looking at myself, I think I am described") as CBD and I think this hangs together really well with AGP. Because you know you'll be fine regardless of sex, you can start having preferences, even kinks, about sex - but they're just that, not needs.

Most people are not nationally important, and lawsuits are expensive.