DirtyWaterHotDog
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User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Is there an estimate for how many of die within the first few hours of the hurricane ?
If most people die on impact, then there isn't much point to organizing an extraordinary response 2 days later. It'll make lives less miserable, but those who were going to die have already died.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I do it all the time. Renting is not opposed to owning. I own my bike and rent e-bikes all the time.
Few reason:
- I use it when riding my own bike isn't an option. It's normal to be going to some event where I don't want the hassle of carrying around my own bike. * * Renting is expensive. But, it's cheaper than an uber.
- Can be faster and more pleasant to some. (me)
- Bikes get stolen all the time.
- Some employers give free memberships, which're significantly cheaper
Your comment is triggering Poe's law for me. The sarcasm is too sincere for me to be 100% sure. I'm hoping my reply makes sense irrespective of your intent.
Rapid change of any sort doesn't work. It's practically a law of nature. Wealth (20th century Saudi), Land (South Africa), Agency (Liberia) or Demographics.
A progressive may support the logical endpoint of their philosophy. But even in ideal circumstances, truly redistributive outcomes cannot be achieved overnight. It's well known social science, but progressive countries ignore it. They utilize 'rapid immigration as national policy', but never stage their immigration to allow for win-win outcomes.
Singapore does it right (Lee Kwan Yew is always right. Motherfucker). America brute forces it, hogs the literal best of the world and wins. But, Western Europe & Canada seem to be confused about what they want in their immigrants.
If you want model citizens, then don't import low skill men, aged 20-30. They're are bad immigrants everywhere. This cohort commits the vast majority of crime. If you want them to integrate, import young college students (to schools with majority Canadians) or 30+ low skill men with families and toddlers who can be 'civilized' from day 1. Your nation needs nurses and women are good immigrants.....so start nursing programs. If small towns need labor, then sprinkle families which have incentive to drop roots and integrate....rather than bringing all young men to 1 town, who room-up and ghettoize.
Sweden, Germany, Southern France, Canada....It's all the same. The immigrant group differs in each place. But the haphazard and almost suicidal choice of how immigrants are sub-sampled guarantees bad outcomes. Honestly, 'refugee' and 'asylee' are such shit categories. Too easy to game when you come from a desperate situation from your home country.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Isn't the issue that Canadian doctors & especially nurses move to the US ?
And why wouldn't they? Identical culture, no further than Canadian cities are from each other and an immediate 2-3x pay bump.
Same applies to Tech & Finance. Canada is facing the exact same problem as middle America. All jobs are in the regional economic hub. Not enough young to run these small towns, because the young are leaving. Those regional hubs are in Coastal USA : primarily California and the NE corridor. A Nova Scotian is both physically and culturally closer to New England, than many American states are to each other.
staff completely replaced
We're the previous staff out of a job or did they more to better things ?
I don't want to make it sound like I'm make light of what's clearly a drastic change. Seems like the locals didn't want it. And small towns can't sustain their existing culture in the face of such rapid change. I empathize.
One question. How do these towns of 4000 survive in the first place ?
Nova Scotia is the world's largest exporter of Christmas trees, lobster, gypsum, and wild berries
Sounds like a low skill resource based economy. It doesn't sound like immigrants are coming in to take the jobs. Sounds more blue-collar owners have stopped working, and started delegating. Canadians aren't reproducing. The few young are leaving for urban areas. Someone has to catch the fish and cut the trees. IMO, might as well be immigrants. I understand if people don't want immigrants. But, are there any young locals to do these jobs at all ? How do you think these villages would survive otherwise ?
North American housing crises are manufactured. There are no limiting resource constraints. Limited zoning limits the number of houses. Fewer houses means expensive houses. There are other factors at play, but zoning is the disproportionate cause for high prices across the continent.
Canada is facing the worst of it because of the immigration tsunami and a shoddy economy. But, that's like blaming the rain for leaks, when you've got a gaping hole in your roof. Any place in the world would be affected just as adversely, if housing policy was this hostile. Sydney & Honolulu are 2 such examples. It's tempting to think you can trudge along like coastal US cities. But, coastal USA gets around it through sheer brute force. The economies of coastal USA can sustain any level of dysfunction. Be it California's $100b HSR or NYC renting out the whole city's hotels as refugee shelters. Other places aren't so fortunate.
Canada needs to build a shit ton of housing ASAP. The country has practically infinite lumber and just imported a ton of low skill labor. Put up some 4+1s and this will be solved in under a year.
There is no mincing words. Canada's shambolic housing policy is a wealth transfer program from the young to the old. Canada's economy is not doing great, and you'd expect it to affect everyone's QOL equally. Through this (almost direct) wealth transfer, the liberal govt. has decided to let the young bear all the misery, while the geriatrics have the world's greatest retirement.
P.S: I'm Indian and Canada's current immigration policy is a joke even within India. To quote Trump, "They’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us". India's best don't aspire to go to Canada. They go to the US, Urban India or Western Europe. The OP talks about housing costs and Canada's wider problems with productivity. I'll stick to that. Can always talk about immigration later.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Doing good things and being hated aren't mutually exclusive.
First part of being hated is about optics. If you own a Bugatti, then drive it with the entitlement of a Bugatti driver. If you purchased a Manet, took it off a Museum shelf and popped it in your living room.... then don't act 'terribly sorry for taking it off the shelves'. Own it. Be hate able for doing hate able things. This is especially annoying when rich people disguise themselves as poor people to avoid judgement. They sneakily avoid the challenges that inter-poor camaraderie authetic. You don't struggle to make rent, don't act like you empathize.
Second, it's about saying the wrong things. You're rich enough to not be fire able. Say the annoying things that gets normies cancelled. It makes you hate able, but is in line with your values. It may even result in good outcomes, but it doesn't make you likeable. You can be the person who gives hard truths to the young, because it doesn't affect your stature in society.
So yeah, it's about living authentically. Just doing that will make you hate able.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Maybe I phrased it incorrectly, but I just meant the traditional party system
This was crazy insightful. Thanks dude !
Vous semblez utiliser le clavier français, lol.
Les espaces avant le point d'interrogation vous ont trahi 😁
Nope, just a dude with bad habits.
My French is limited to 'se Kis kis pas', 'se vu play', 'saba' and random groans.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Could you elaborate on how old elite hold power in France.
I've found France to be a remarkably well run nation, as far as European nations go. Public projects seem to get done on time and within budget. The non-white population actually feel French, in a way that I yet to see from any other country's minorities. There is significant amounts of industry, even though every one has impossibly good work life balance. They've protected themselves from global influence (locals use local-made products, the language and culture is strong) while still being able to project internationalism. They have the highest fertility in Europe, the society seems to deal with single parenthood quite well too. Looks like they're having their cake and eating it too.
I'll admit, I have a huge French friends group, who I love dearly. I also haven't been on the receiving end of their snooty-ness just yet. So, I'm biased.
Still, is there something unique that the French are doing right ? Or am I looking at it through rose-tinted glasses ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
The rubble makes it look dire.
If he was at the site of the strikes, he is dead.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
using specified and nuanced language
This has always been useful, and is less so about studying English than preciseness of thought. Linguistics maybe. End of day, it's about writing crisp documents.
The best software architects write the best requirements. The best managers drive concise meetings. The best lawyers are linguistic magicians. Don't get me started on politicians, tv experts and the entertainment business. Even doctors have to be insanely precise in how they communicate the specifics of a disease.
It's no surprise that Stanford's symbolic systems has produced a significant number of tech billionaires. It is a field studying exactly what you talk about.
My friends and I talk about this all the time.
"The only true privilege of the poor is hating on the rich. Therefore, it is the moral responsibility of the rich to hateable."
No, don't be relatable. Don't denigrate yourself in front of me. Don't be physically embarrassed of your stature. You've spent your whole life trying to not end up like the poor. You have a visceral dislike for that life. You go live in your world, and the poor hate on you like it's their god given right.
If I ever end up super rich, I'll be sure to fulfill my responsibility.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
if we engineer ourselves into immortal cyborgs
Hubris of the highest order.
We don't let humans so much as stitch up some skin unless they've gone through a decade of training. We don't let new engineers commit new code, unless they've spent time understanding the base architecture. What makes you think we know enough about what it means to be homo sapiens that we can go replacing entire parts wholesale ?
Just look at the last few decades. We put a whole generation of women on pills that accidentally change that characteristics of which men they're attracted to. The last-gen painkillers caused the biggest drug epidemic in the country. The primary stimulant of the century (cigarettes) was causing early death enmasse. We don't know why there is a detectable difference in immunity between c-section vs natural deliveries, and this is a difference of a few seconds. That's how little we know about these flesh-suits of ours. We have no clue what we're doing.
What's so special about the biped mammal vessel for a mind?
Don't take this the wrong way. What I'm about to say is definitely stereotyping a certain type of person.
But, I only ever see internet neuro-divergents ask these sort of questions. To normies, your question sounds like the equivalent of ,"What's so great about fries?". You'd only ever ask the question if you've never enjoyed a good pack of fries or a equivalent food that makes you feel that special thing. It reveals the absence of a fundamental human experience. To a degree, it reveals that you're less human or at least 'dis-abled'.
I'm entitled. I don't think I need to explain what makes some things special. The first day of the monsoon, petting a puppy, making faces at a toddler, a warm hug, the top of a mountain, soul food, soul music, the first time you hold your child, the last time you hold your parent, the first time a sibling defeats you at a game.
In a way, these unspoken common traits are what makes all of us human. I care about the survival of these consistent 300k-old traits, because I cherish these things. And I believe that a non-human would not be able to. Because we aren't taught to cherish these things. We just do. I don't expect everyone to have experienced all of these, in the same way. Civilizational differences mean that specifics differ. But, the patterns are undeniable.
Why do I care about the authentic experiences of my imperfect body and imperfect mind ? Because that is what it means to be human.
P.S: and I am every bit an atheist. Do I have to believe in divinity to believe in beauty ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
On further thought, I have met more cultists at some of these companies, but a majority (50%+) have been normal. Also, can't exactly scale those anecdotes up.
With that reflection, I'll take back my earlier comment.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Regression to the mean after selection happens because some part of IQ is non-inherited
So it is environmental.
But the answer to both questions is yes.
Wait, wouldn't the contradict your point ?
If it is straight up regression to the mean, then the child of any 2 identical geniuses is just as likely to be a genius as the child of any other 2 geniuses. Because all children of geniuses will regress to the overall mean of mankind at the same rate. (assuming the same environment)
So the answer for both would be 'No'.
I'd phrase my statement as : "Once you control for parents + environment, is the avg IQ of the parents' groups completely irrelevant?".
or
"Obama and Michelle's kids, can be expected to be as smart as a Chinese Obama and Chinese Michelle's kids".
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Can you link me to literature on individual vs group contributions to cognitive ability ?
I've heard about regressing to the mean, where top percentile parents will the child's cognitive ability move towards their combined group means, rather than the parental mean.
IE, if:
inherited_iq = a*(mom + dad IQ) + b*(maternal group IQ + paternal group IQ).
Then what would a & b look like ?
Put simply,
-
If 2 geniuses from a low group IQ community have a child, then is the child less likely to be genius than children of other geniuses ?
-
If 2 normies from a group with high group IQ have a child. Is the child more likely to be genius than children of other normies ?
The companies being a cult is a big part of their strategy.
Information secrecy is top notch, everyone willingly works insane hours and you can get engineers to do borderline illegal things (around data privacy and ownership) without being questioned.
I know a few people at Facebook AI research, MSR and (old) Google Brain. They seem normal. But folks at OpenAI, Anthropic & Deep mind are well known to be ..... peculiar (and admittedly smarter than I am).
Paul Graham is the most honest billionaire (low bar) in silicon valley. Paul groomed Sam, gave him a career and eventually fired him. Paul is the most articulate man I know. Read what Paul has to say about Sam, and you'll see a carefully worded pattern. Paul admires Sam, but Sam scares him.
Before I write a few lines shitting on Sam, I must acknowledge that he is scary good. Dude is a beast. The men at the top of silicon valley are sharp and ruthless. You don't earn their respect let alone fear, if you aren't scary good. Reminds me of Kissinger in his ability to navigate himself into power. I've heard similar things about David Sacks. Like Kissinger, many in YC will talk fondly about their interactions with him. Charming, direct, patient and a networking workhorse. He could connect you to an investor, a contact or a customer faster than anyone in the valley.
But, Sam's excellence appears untethered to any one domain. Lots of young billionaires have a clear "vision -> insight -> skill acquisition -> solve hard problems -> make ton of money" journey. But, unlike other young Billionaires, Sam didn't have a baby of his own. He has climbed his way to it, 1 strategic decision at a time. And given the age by which he achieved it, it's fair to call him the best ladder climber of his generation.
Sam's first startup was a failure. He inherited YC, like Sundar inherited Google, and Sam eventually got fired. He built OpenAI, but the core product was a thin layer on top of an LLM. Sam played no part in building the LLM. I had acquaintances joining Deepmind/OpenAI/Fair from 2017-2020, no one cared about Sam. Greg and Ilya were the main pull. Sam's ability to fundraise is second to none, but GPT-3 would have happened with or without him.
I personally, struggle to trust people I consider untethered. MBA types, lawyers turned CEOs, politicians. Top 0.1 percentile autists must excel. In the absence of a grounding domain, they start demonstrating excellence in accumulating Power. Power for power's sake. Sam is a perfect archetype.
Moreover, Sam being a gay childless tech-bro means he isn't naturally incentivized to see the world improve. None of those things are bad on their own. But they don't play well with top 0.1 percentile autists. Straight men soften up overtime, learning empathy from their wife, through osmosis. Gay communities don't get that. Then you have silicon valley tech culture, which is famously insular and lacks a certain worldliness. (even when it is racially diverse). I'll take Sam being married to a 'gay white software engineer' as evidence in favor of my hypothesis. Lastly, he is childless. This means no inherent incentive to making the world a better place. IMO, Top 0.1 percentile autists will devolve into megalomania without a grounding soft touch to keep them sane. Sam is not exception and he is the least grounded of them all. Say what you want about Mark Zuckerberg, but a wife and kids has definitely played a role in humanizing him. Not sure I can say the same for Sam.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
My weight has fluctuated 30-ish pounds over the last few years. (24-29 BMI, but semi-muscular. 24 would be ideal)
Nothing affects weight like stress. When things are stable, I find myself steadily losing 2 pounds/month until I settle around a 25 BMI.
But, stability is hard to find. I've changed 4 cities in 2 years & 10 cities in 10 years. There's immigration insecurity, loan payments, familial responsibilities & relationship tensions that can vanish for a few hours....if I allow myself to order fries. I'm no picky eater either. I'm actually an expert cook. But, when everything piles up, I just don't have anything left to give. And fries, fries taste so so good.
some sort of understanding
I like that phrasing. Understand that I know everything I 'should do' if I want to lose weight. But life doesn't happen in isolation. "I have a lot going on right now" is a good enough answer.
I don't want special accommodations.
I don't really care if people think worse of me because I am overweight: I think worse of me for being overweight.
I hate the "healthy at any size" movement and its derivatives.
All I would like to do is point out some of us overweight people don't fall into how you are observing a reality TV show.
100%
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Hilarious followup.
Today, J cut myself on an open tin can. I never cut myself on knives because i take the appropriate care. But tins just sit them innocuously until you touch them and they tear you up.
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
These are golden. I'll try internalizing them in my future writing.
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
Football player Tyreek Hill
That's a gross mischaracterization. He was Miami's MVP of 2022. It's like not recognizing Zlatan in Sweden.
which isn’t a given
He was in a mclaren. That's a $400k car. So, the officers should've at least known that he was rich.
In Florida, officers have the right to command you to keep the window low enough for (1) communication and (2) officer safety
The officer asked him to keep his window down. And within the next few seconds, he did. The officer had no reason to escalate, drag him down and cuff him with the aggressiveness that they did. The stats for police officers shot from a McLaren is zero, and will stay zero. He puts his window down, then unlocks the car and is stepping out. The office still drags a clearly cooperating suspect onto the floor for no freaking reason. If the officer's life was at risk, then the suspect (Tyreek) would not have unlocked the car, had both hands up and let them grab him.
He is entitled. Yes. But, he was cooperating.
They would have every reason to treat him with precaution because of his domestic violence and assault record, meaning that a concern for officer safety is legitimate despite the subject’s fame
Officers don't have a person's record available off the top of their head.
We don’t want to do that, right? We should treat everyone the same.
Yeah. We don't want random people to be dragged out of their car if they're cooperating. Why did they double jump on him at minute 2:00 ?
Let's not pretend like people are going to be treated the same, ever. Old money families have multiple hit-n-run deaths on their hands. The police politely go to their houses and ring bells. So if you're rich, the system clearly treats you better. Set the money aside, and this is still baffling. I was poor and I have been stopped a couple of times for suspected speeding. I am not white, but the police were always nice. They took my license. Did the math. Realized I wasn't really speeding by enough and let me go on a warning. A normal human-human interaction.
Miami is not Baltimore. The police offers are not fighting gangs to death on the daily. Why so much hostility ?
The arrest is fine. That manner of it is, really odd.
that would never be afforded to a white CEO
Are white Americans that blind to how they're treated in the US ? Upper class whites (admittedly coastal) are treated like kings. Their usual attire, demeanor and tone signals authority. And white / coloreds alike fall in line.
I want to avoid making this about race. I'd rather talk about policing at large.
American police aren't dying in the line of action. It is a safe & boring blue collar job; traffic policing in coastal cities is doubly so.
Why so twitchy ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
How do improve at writing ?
I ramble. My sentences are long. My claims are laid with qualifications. In person I modulate. So sentences don't feel long. Works for impromptu speeches, but is cumbersome in writing.
I've come to hate my writing. My elevator pitches lack punch. The sharp edge of a well-made point gets lost in verbose filler.
I want to improve at conciseness. Where I can start ?
Thanks. I tried.
It's a little jerky, but is much improved.
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
This perfectly captures it !
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
Helmets don't reduce bike injuries either. Stats show that people drive riskier around cyclists with helmets than they do with ones without. Cyclists also ride riskier when they have helmets on. You can call it 'induced recklessness'.
Recklessness gets calibrated to perceived risk. If I know that falling off a trampoline means broken bones, I'm not going to be jumping as high.
IMO, the riskiest activities are ones that offer the optics of safety without any material gains. Large cars and soft suspensions are a classic example. Jumping into water from great heights is another. Free soloists (people who climb mountains without ropes) are renowned for dying young. Ironically, most of them die from non-free-solo activities. It's because they're willing to try activities with higher odds of failure than free soloing, if they think failure doesn't mean death. But, 1 badly clipped bolt when leading or a gust of wind in a wingsuit.....and you're just as dead.
At the risk of sounding insensitive, it seems easy to avoid death from hurricanes. If the broad path of the hurricane is known, then the city should be able to evacuate within a couple of days.
Dunno if this one is an exception, but I believe hurricanes are routine occurrences in this region. Neighboring cities should be able to preemptively provide shelter to the fleeing populace. 5-10 stadiums can hold ~200-500k people. The west coast deals with wildfires, and routinely evacuates entire cities with no reported deaths.
The economic damage is another story. But loss of human life should be avoidable.
NHC had predicted the Karina would make landfall near New Orleans, about three days in advance of its actual landfall on August 29. Sandy's exact landfall (in New Jersey on October 29) and the storm surge threat were solidly predicted about four to five days in advance.
In either case, broad predictions were made a full week in advance and precise impact zones were predicted with 3 days to go.
What am I missing here? Surely the death toll should have been a lot lower ?
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