DirtyWaterHotDog
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User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
20d ago
They'll do what filthy rich billionaires did before them : Donate = Bribe = Lobby.
Now that Elon & Thiel are Texans, the state should offer them plenty of protection even after Trump goes away.
DirtyWaterHotDog
20d ago
It seems she and her husband converted to Hinduism.
She was raised Hindu. You can't convert to Hinduism. No Indian would be able to explain what that even means. Pagans are flexible. The Indian "far-right" (RSS) routinely suggest that Indian minorities are religious chimeras, calling them Muslim-Hindus or Christian-Hindus. The data backs their claims. A majority of Indian Christians & Muslims believe in karma & a plurality believe in reincarnation. For Hindus, the lines between lines between culture & religion are blurry, with very few consensus beliefs.
Push comes to shove, I'd say Hinduism is about:
- Karma (Actions have consequences)
- Dharma (Sanctity of the duties you've signed up for + abiding by a personal moral code)
- Rebirth till Moksha (Less worldly desires is better. Ends up as a general tree-hugger syndrome)
- General neutrality of the divine. (The system exists for all. No special cut out for devout believers.)
Contrary to popular belief, vegetarianism & non-violence are relatively modern (20th century) ideas and part of Nehru/Gandhi's 20th century Vishwa-guru (teacher to the world) propaganda. Other than a small subsection of Brahmins & Jains (over-represented in the US diaspora), the rest don't put either idea on a pedestal.
All this to say, I'd caution against imposing Abrahamic models onto Pagan religions. American Hinduism is closer to ACX-Rationalism than the sort of conservative thought that is ascribed to India's rural Hindi heartland.
That aside, what's her reason for opposing gay marriage? I know Christians and Muslims have a scriptural disgust for it. I'd like to know where young Tulsi's strong opposition to it comes from.
DirtyWaterHotDog
23d ago
One of my favorite topics. I'm an immigrant looking in from the outside. I have a large group of close friends in France. They serve as the perfect foil. The contrast between both nations is jarring.
Americans are insecure.
With French labor protection & welfare, losing your job is a mild inconvenience. Loans are harder to get, so you're rarely living beyond your means and less likely to default. If you're evicted, social housing is.....acceptable.
Americans have none of these fail safes. Long bouts of unemployment are catastrophic. Injuries, missed payments, divorces, pregnancies can ruin a person. Yet, culturally, Americans live beyond their means and maintain high debt burdens. The new worth number is deceptive, because most of it isn't liquid. A middle-aged person can't access value locked into houses, 401ks, 529s, HSAs or cars. For comparison, my French peers are buying studios worth <200k or just renting, while my American peers are buying ~$1M SFHs.
The lack of solid maternity-leave is a big stressor for women. There's a feeling that you need to make yourself indispensable before you first child. Only then can you take a long maternity-leave and later return where you left off. Otherwise, you're unemployable an maternity becomes financially ruinous.
In your head, you're 1 lay-off away from disaster. Ofc you'll work hard.
America isn't fun.
The alternative to work is fun. While both countries take weekends off, French work-life-balance shines during the weekdays. Americans leave a couple of hours later, and that makes all the difference.
Density, walkability & having things to do means that weekday evenings don't have to suck. In comparison, most American cities are asleep by 8.30pm on weekdays. Without transit, that extra drive is excruciating and the distance between you and your friends means that finding a common location is hard. My French friends haven't splintered nearly as much as my American friends when they purchase SFHs. There is tie-in to American's lack of 3rd places as well.
Small corollary: Americans live further away from their parents. Some of it is urban design, some of it is the size of the country. But, the TGV allows my French friends to do a quick visit to their family within 2-ish hours. I can't explain just how relaxing these train rides are. They're nothing like a grueling 2hr drive. This means that French people can more easily pull off a weekday all-nighter with family than Americans.
Dependent kids = dependent parents
Finally, you have kids. American kids are famously dependent. Parents timings revolve around pickup-hours. After school & daycare end around 6.30 pm. Since parents pick kids up on the way, getting there earlier doesn't make sense.
Yes, I've overlooked that French people take all of July off. But that's irrelevant. The day to day stress felt during the other 11 months is what really matters.
All this being said, it's only half the story. American culture explains the rest. In the US, you are what you make of yourself. Work defines your social worth. People self-sort among cliques with uniform class within them. Ofc, American districting plays an explicit role in this. My French groups are more fluid. In America, the culture teaches you the sanctity of work.
Yes, Americans love their work. They definitely do. But, they're also supposed to.
DirtyWaterHotDog
23d ago
Nate did nothing wrong. He is in the profession of polling, and must therefore believe that polls are directionally correct with some margin for error. He's then spent this entire life creating better priors, correlational models and ensembles to reduce that 'margin for error'.
A doctor doesn't question if germs exist. A mechanical engineer doesn't question Newton's laws. Similarly, Nate is incapable of questioning if polls contain any signal what-so-ever. Modern polling is in it's 2008 CDOs phase. You can't take 100 bad loans and roll them up into a AAA financial vehicle by citing diversification. Similarly, you can't ensemble broken polling data into any information of value.
Polls are useless for 2 reasons:
- When the margins are narrow (2020, 2024), polls are too noisy to get anything of value
- When the margins are large (2008, 1996), no one needs polls. The vibes are obvious
In a year with a wild card ex-president, incumbent president withdrawing, a VP who has never fought a competitive race, an assassination attempt, a fresh war in Israel, a lumbering war in Ukraine and a technically strong economy with terrible optics (lingering inflation from 2020-2021) ............ all your priors go into the dumps.
Even when polling does work (not often), it assumes a 'normal' year. In a "normal" setup, 3 things would have gone differently:
- No assassination attempt (at least not an unsuccessful one)
- Biden never runs and Dems choose candidate in open primary. Likely choosing a Middle-America candidate with better speaking chops than Kamala.
- 7th October didn't happen. (splintered the Dems. The actual war & muslim votes don't matter. But white progressives do, and they broke rank)
If these 3 hadn't happened, Trump would've still won. But, the Dem candidate could totally have flipped AZ, NV, Wisc & Mi. Still 2 short and PA was going Trump either way. However, in this world, Nate's predictions would have been a good proxy for the real results.
Alas, that never came to be.
Nate's 2023 victory dance is revealing. [1]
You may have heard the phrase the plural of anecdote is not data. It turns out that this is a misquote. The original aphorism, by the political scientist Ray Wolfinger, was just the opposite: The plural of anecdote is data.
Wolfinger’s formulation makes sense: Data does not have a virgin birth. It comes to us from somewhere. Someone set up a procedure to collect and record it. Sometimes this person is a scientist, but she also could be a journalist. -Nate Silver.
In writing this paragraph, Nate Silver fails to understand why the quote : "The plural of anecdote is not data" took off, and dooms his predictions for good.
[1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/
I'll leave you with my favorite stats quotes:
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital -Aaron Levenstein
There are 3 kind of lies : Lies, Damn lies and Statistics - Mark Twain (maybe)
The plural of anecdote is not data - Not Ray Wolfinger
DirtyWaterHotDog
24d ago
Is the US funding Qatar in any real way ?
The US's biggest international military base is in Qatar. Qatar sells oil to everyone. If anything, the US doesn't buy much because it sources oil locally.
What leverage does the US have on Qatar ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
26d ago
North Korean soldiers deployed in Ukraine
Addon - NY post isn't reliable, but the story is too good. NK soldiers are [getting hooked on porn](https://nypost.com/2024/11/05/world-news/us-cant-confirm-north-korean-soldiers-in-russia-hooked-on-porn-after-getting-internet-access/.com
- after first contact with the internet.
Canada's National Cyber Threat Assessment classifies India a "state adversary"
The India-Canada relationship has reached a proper boiling point, and the feeling is mutual.
India's frictions with Canada go back 40 years, during Senior Trudeau's reign. The cracks began when Canada refused to extradite or prosecute the terrorists who hijacked Air India Flight 182 (The 2nd most lethal aviation terror attack after 9/11). Since then, Canada has accepted a steady stream of India's-most-wanted, and developed a 'healthy' underworld of Sikh radicals. For the longest time, India took a 'not my problem' approach to this issue, and it became dormant.
That is until Trudeau started acting in a frankly baffling manner that still confuses Indians. First, he invited a wanted terrorist (now refugee in Canada) to be part of his delegation during his visit to India. It's the kind of stuff that propagates Canada's image as an unserious nation. Then he began directly interfering in Indian politics. Then to put the cherry on top, he visited while effective performing a skit about the adventures of brown-face trudeau. It's hard to explain, Trudeau was India's main meme for months. He is now India's unanimously top-hated world leader, more than legitimate adversaries like Xi or Imran Khan. By this point, Hindus were reporting frequent harassment in Canada, Punjab police began tracing crime rings back to Canada and Trudeau's condescending responses made India abandon its 'not my problem' policy on Canada.
The Nijjar fiasco projected this conflict into the stratosphere, but the Camel's back has been broken for a few years now.
This is no over-reaction. The Liberal (Trudeau)-NDP alliance and Modi's India are now permanent adversaries. Canada is headed for a landslide conservative win. The Conservatives & India have historically maintained a neutral stance with each other. And with Trump coming back, I am optimistic that things will quiet down on the India- Canada front. But yeah, we aren't becoming friends again. Within India, the overwhelming opinion on the Canada-Nijjar fiasco is : "We didn't do it. But if we did, that's even better." So, Modi has no incentive to back down. This is amazing PR for him.
198 killed, 111 injured in separate terrorist attacks in Pakistan during October.
It's a classic for a reason
“You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors. You know, eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.” ― Hillary Rodham Clinton
influx of refugees from Myanmar
This is an odd one. A sub-ethnic war (it's active war between 2 tribal groups in the mountains) broke out in India (for 3 years now), and has now spilled over to Myanmar. The refugees are less of concern. The Indian Govt. has done very little to control this vigilante mob of war criminals on either side. The standard thing would be to declare emergency, crack down hard and engage in violent suppression of this separatist uprising. But in the aftermath of Kashmir's first democratic elections since Sec 370 was revoked, Modi has been looking to portray a 'stable India' image. Both sub-ethnicities are minorities with little say in national politics. So, the center has taken a 'not our problem' approach to it. Frankly, it is reckless and embarrassing.
jihadist insurgencies in Africa, causing large population movements
I'm presuming they're migrating to Southern Europe. Marseille, Naples & the Mediterranean are already flooded with immigrants. It's surprising how little right-wing leaders like Meloni have done to limit incoming refugees.
DirtyWaterHotDog
27d ago
I watched the whole thing. I like her commitment.
DirtyWaterHotDog
28d ago
Is there any proof that outraising and out funding helps campaigns ? In local elections sure. But once the national candidates are chosen. The media pretty much self-funds their preferred party. Who doesn't know about Kamala and Trump ? What does an extra dollar get you ?
Kamala was a horrible candidate. Everyone knew it. She lost. America has always voted for the more charismatic candidate, and wierdly 2020 biden did well on that front too. Kamala couldn't even place top 3 in the famously weak 2020 primaries (The whole Obama era chill grandpa routine worked well for Biden)
I hope this spurs a return to 'moderate' democrats. More Buttigieg, less AOC. Hope dems give up on their baffling support for free drug use, police abolishment and illegal immigration for good.
White power
/s
Happy Diwali to my man J.D. Vance. In which, a Colored pagan gives white people more reasons to feel superior. Now with conclusive genetic data to back it.
In Scott's 'links for November' he shares:
Pervasive findings of directional selection realize the promise of ancient DNA to elucidate human adaptation. Scientists took DNA samples from human remains in Europe dating from 10,000 BC to present, and found that genes for high IQ and other positive traits have been getting more common during that time. (image) (link to paper)
Curious pattern matchers will find another identical graph in the paper. The intelligence graph coincides perfectly with....drum roll please...... yes, it's white skin and hair color.
I thought I was cherry picking. But nope. No other graph superimposes this nicely with intelligence. (other graphs)
I'm surprised white supremacists didn't pounce on this immediately. I don't expect them to read. But still.....
Now what, 2000 more words about a stupid graph ? Yes ! But I'm more interested in trends within the intelligence graph over time, rather than what it means for white faces and blonde hair. The intelligence graph has inflection points which leads me to divide European history into distinct eras based around these points. Let's talk about these eras instead.
Reverse engineering history from kinks in intelligence genomic graphs :
The intelligence graph has a few distinct trend reversals. Those key reversals / phases eye balled with 250 yr tolerance on either side are:
- 7000 - 4500 sharp rise
- 4500 - 3500 BC slow stagnation
- 3500-3000 BC - sharp drop
- 3000 - 1500 BC - restoration of steady recovery
- 1500BC - 500 BC steady rise
- 500BC - 1200AD steady decline
- 1200+ AD steady increase
What (spurious?) co-relations can we draw ?
7000 - 4500 BC:
The sharp rise corresponds to the Neolithic expansion. Agriculture spread and Near-East farmers started replacing native hunter gatherers.
3500- 3000 BC:
Sharp drop coincides with the Yamnaya expansion. It is in full swing, going deep into Europe. Big L for Skin heads. Aryans made them stupider.
1500BC - 500 BC:
Steady rise coincides with Bronze age collapse. But, not major genetic changes. This makes sense in context of the white-skin preference graph. It doesn't reflect any major change during that time. Might have been a purely cultural change or noisy data.
500BC - 1200AD steady decline:
I like this one. The Greek and Romans did not perform much population replacement, so the steadiness in genetics is to be expected. Germanic, Viking, Slavic & Celtic people performed some 'population replacement', but there isn’t one inciting genetic factor. On the other hand, This steady decline coincides with the continent’s biggest cultural phenomenon : Christianity. Another L for the skin heads.
1200AD++ steady increase:
Turns out, there's minimal lasting genetic impact owing to mongols or black death. So, I'll discard them. This increase appears cultural. Renaissance happens in 12th century, the technology hockey-stick begins and with it what I expect was positive selection for IQ.
If my (potentially spurious) correlations are to be believed, ancestral pillars of white identity (Yamnaya Aryans and early Christians) suppressed intelligence than promoting it. I'd love to see a global intelligence graph over the same period,. That way I can view relative impact instead of absolutes.
"There are 3 kind of lies : Lies, Damn lies and Statistics"
In closing, was whiteness good for European intelligence ? Idk, I remain confused.
P.S: Yes, I am extrapolating from one paper and drawing correlations over correlations. Don't take this as gospel. Please.
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Pick your 2 priorities. 1 short term, 1 long term. Dump everything else. Then pick which matter more. Short or long term. and roll with it.
How I'm thinking about it:
- short term - YIMBY. Build more & clean up cities. (Dems win)
- long term - Freedom of expression. (Dems lose narrowly)
With the supreme court stable & a post-woke zeitgeist, Dems can't move the needle on strongly enshrined freedoms. This will be a 1 term president, with a half-term before mid-terms to get anything done. It won't affect long term change. YIMBYism has finally gained momentum and can have quick impact. So short term it is.
For national elections, I wouldn't waste my breath on a 3rd candidate. Pick a tent. Everything else is theater.
I'd reluctantly vote for Dems in nationals. And then vote for the YIMBYiest (pro housing, clean streets) local candidate, irrespective of their leaning. Couple of years ago, Ann Davidson in Seattle was the right candidate despite being Republican. But in SF, don't think there are any good right leaning candidates.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
This is the best source I've found- https://dynomight.net/seed-oil/
In practice, avoiding seed oils is probably really good for you, because it forces you to eliminate most of the processed crap you shouldn’t be eating anyway.
seed oil theorists push a much stronger theory: that seed oils are the cause of Western disease. I’ll just be honest. I think this view is completely indefensible.
My real worry about seed oil theory is that it’s a distraction. If you want to be healthier, we know ways you can change your diet that will help: Increase your overall diet “quality”. Eat lots of fruits and vegetables. Avoid processed food. Especially avoid processed meats. Eat food with low caloric density. Avoid added sugar. Avoid alcohol. Avoid processed food.
I know this is hard. You could even argue it’s unrealistic. That wouldn’t make it wrong.
I've reached a similar conclusion.
The sort of foods that cause high consumption of seed-oils, are the type of foods that you should avoid anyways; Seed oils or not. I personally love extra-virgin olive oil, because if can use a little and get a ton of flavor out of it. Kirkland brand EEVO is cheap enough.
So yeah. Olive oil for everything. Unless it is high-temp wok cooking, when Canola is permissible.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Similar feeling.
Staying off it completely for 2 months helped me come back with a healthier system. (went from anxious eye tremors to being back to normal).
Cold turkey was really hard. It's like the whole world is grey and you're half asleep. An entire month passed me by in zombie mode. The 2nd month was better, and I have been careful to never go that far with coffee ever since. (8-10 shots per day to now 2-4 espresso shots per day)
I take Vyvanse for my ADHD & 1-2 cups of coffee per day.
What works for me: tl,dr: less carbs + spacing out stimulants.
Details:
- Have 1st coffee later in the morning. Usually, right before starting focus work. (around 10am). Avoids afternoon crash and avoid 2nd/3rd coffee.
- No coffee after 3pm if I plan to sleep that night. Not worth it.
- No heavy carbs for lunch. Avoids afternoon crash.
- Alternate daily Vyvanse consumption. I skip it on meeting days, and have my coffee earlier to compensate.
- No Vyvanse on holidays. STRICT.
- Only 1 coffee on holidays. STRICT.
- 3 coffees max per work day. 1 is ideal. 2 is borderline. 3 only if really needed. (each coffee is ~double shot of espresso)
- Get full night of sleep every night. No work is too important. When I'm sleep deprived, I have coffee at odd times and it messes up my routine.
- Not exactly cardio. But, I cycle to office and get a good bout of sun in the process. Indispensible.
- Hot concentrated drinks >>> everything else. For me, the punch of a hot cortado delivers a strong placebo that a mug of American coffee, milky coffee or cold coffee simply can't match. It's free (placebo) lunch. Highly recommend.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Netanyahu is making the most of his time before November 6th. He knows that a Kamala fumble on this could tank her campaign. So dude is bombing away her her hands are tied.
Iran, even more than Russia, is an information vacuum for western media. How stable is Khamenei's hold on Iran? Their economy is in the shitter. Khamenei at 85, could drop dead anytime. Their 2nd in command (Riasi) died this year. Now Iran has lost its proxies & is getting pummeled on their home ground. Their nuclear program has been knee-capped
Iran looks poised for a dirty succession battle. Iran has been run by clerics since the Shah was pushed out. So, the next supreme leader would need to be a cleric. Riasi was being groomed as a fellow Ayatollah and Prime minister, but he's dead. The current PM is a moderate doctor with insufficient religious creds. Khamenei's son is an Ayatollah, but isn't well liked. And every other person in running is either just as old (80+) or too weak.
There's a stark difference in Tehran's liberal temperament vs the hyper-conservative country side. I don't see Iran staying in it's Post-80s backwater state for much longer. Iran has the same HDI as China & with infinite oil. As a free market economy, it could pass Turkey/Mexico in productivity within a decade or two. With Hezbollah and Hamas defused, what's the point of being an anti-western Shia Islamist nation ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Could you elaborate on this ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Yep, an entire class of low intelligence alcoholics & criminals aren't considered mentally ill because their affliction is socially acceptable.
Instead of manic genius, you get alcoholic loser.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
The American people and American institutions are distinct. I agree that the world's institutions trust American institutions. The modern world order has been sculpted by post-WW2 America. It is less so trust, than the world being a vassal state to America.
To be clear, I don't say this with resentment. I consider US to be history's most benevolent global superpower. I'll take Pax Americana 100 times over the superpowers it replaced.
For my previous comment, I meant interpersonal trust and citizen-domestic institution trust.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
“You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors. You know, eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.” ― Hillary Dawg Clinton to Pakistan
Trump and his lackeys have fed conspiracy theories for a full decade, which are now coming back to bite them in the ass.
It's a familiar story. The radicalization of Bangladesh and the Maldives are examples from the last two years. You can't give ammunition to the crazies and then be surprised when the crazies start shooting (figuratively and literally).
The deep state isn't some nefarious ingroup. It's a useful umbrella term to capture the emergent ideology of DC's upper-middle-class bureaucracy. But that’s it. It personifies the incompetence inherent in all bureaucracy. It is as faceless as it is boring. However, Trump's rendition of the deep state is akin to a singular eldritch horror that seeks to destroy all that we hold dear. In this narrative, the deep state is held responsible for all of America's problems, and Trump is heralded as the savior.
Of course the crazies ate it up. And given Trump's recent behavior, of course they're turning against him.
It's a uniquely American problem. High trust is usually synonymous with the first world. High trust and civic sense drive efficiencies that help the first world stay ahead. First-world Europeans and East Asians do not have this deep-rooted suspicion towards authority. Even functioning third-world nations have sweeping rations and welfare (low quality as it may be) to help with survival. So, the citizenry retains a base level of goodwill towards institutions.
America, since its inception, may be the only first-world country that's remained low-trust. The Second Amendment and the union-of-states structure start things off with suspicion between smaller organizations and national organizations. As time went on, you got the Wild West, stranger danger, dilapidated inner cities, and more recently, drug addiction-driven homelessness. Can't trust anyone. Usually, this would be unstable. But America has so much money that it brute forces its inefficiencies away. The entire American debt and insurance industry is propped up as a band-aid solution for all the missing trust.
In such a zeitgeist, violent conspiracy nuts become a unique failure mode for American society. Somewhere along the way, these kinds of conspiracy nuts are beaten down into compliant citizens. But not here. The country feeds this distrust, through its scriptures and decentralization. Now the nuts are crazier than ever, they have guns, and they're pointing to the source of their distrust: national leaders. With the disempowerment of pacifying institutions such as mainstream media and traditional churches, the nuts continue spiraling. America is dry tinder, and Trump is a whole-ass blowtorch. For the sake of this nation, I hope he loses and quietly fucks off to Mar-a-Lago for good.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Elon (or presumed anon billionaire) doesn't want to make money off the bet. They want to influence public opinion towards their intended candidate. Movements in betting markets trigger articles titled : 'why kamala is losing ground to Trump - 6 policy fails of the Biden govt'. Additionally, these articles actually draw eyeballs when there's an idle curiosity for why Kamala is losing ground.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I dont have the link on hand, but someone dumped $7 million onto prediction markets overnight, betting against Kamala. People are suspecting Elon. The swing is artificial knee jerk, but your sentiment is genuine.
Remember, Kamala was never supposed to get this far. 2020 was peak woke and Biden felt pressured into choosing a minority. Kamala had the perfect optics - woman, blackish, indianish, well educated, compliant, could signal as woke but fundamentally centrist.
She was the perfect puppet and therefore a good VP candidate. But the same thing makes her a horrible presidential candidate. Off the top of my mind, every other primary candidate did better than her. Pete, Warren, Bernie.... are all articulate and sharp (whether I agree with some of them or not).
IMO, the deepstate chooses bumbling idiots because they are easy to control. Kamala is perfect.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
cultural selection of California
California's 2 economic capitals don't talk too much. SoCal and Bay Area might as well be in 2 different states. There really isn't much of 'California-wide' anything. NYC <-> LA have more cultural exchanged than SF <-> LA.
Hollywood is that they are now so consistently stupid in one direction that it's functionally indistinguishable from malice.
Hollywood has always been stupid. What's changed is competition. Their stupidity is now an existential risk. So you're seeing frantic & ill-considered moves that 'securely stupid' industry could hide away. Hollywood accounting & incestuous cartels used to be able to hide a lot of terrible movies. Not so much anymore.
The last decade has put Hollywood in crisis mode. It comes from 3 sources:
- Big picture phenomenon - Marvel warped their minds. Mega budget low-risk adaptations & sequels was the way to go. This closed the door on promising directors for a whole decade. The only exception was horror, and look at the sheer number of great horror movies that have been made.
- Netflix & Youtube postulated that all media was 'content'. Hollywood stupidly agreed, and now it has to compete for attention against games, reels & TV shows alike.
- Covid destroyed movie theaters. Movies are media, but theaters are an experience. One that is deeply embedded into the populace. Until now, it had allowed Hollywood to stay shielded from the generational onslaught of 'social media content'. The covid shock destroyed these deep associations, and I think they're destroyed for good.
Nothing about this is surprising. We've seen it before with News Media.
Google & Facebook destroyed all except a couple of news organizations. Outside of NYT, WSJ & Co, traditional news media is a shell of its former self. Yes, we all suddenly observed their stupidity for a whole decade as they were dying. But, they too were always stupid. But, stupidity only reveals itself in face of genuine competition.
Talent is one in a million
You are absolutely right. And non-nepo talents (think Gen-Z Tarantino) are finding an outlet in social media. Traditional media just doesn't make money anymore.
The best talents in News Media either went to the few bastions that pay well (NYT), started sub-stacks or became social media influencers.
JOKER 2 is a humiliation ritual. You reacted to the first movie WRONG
It's simpler than that. The director (Todd Philips) is only capable of creating mediocre slop. He debuted with a sex-comedy starring Tom Green and peaked through his Hangover series. Joker was the exception to the rule. Joker 2 was a return to his low-brow shock -value roots.
Phillips said in 2019, in the aftermath of his dark drama Joker release, that he had stopped making comedy films because of the backlash of "woke culture", saying: "Go try to be funny nowadays... There were articles written about why comedies don't work anymore – I'll tell you why, because all the fucking funny guys are like, 'Fuck this shit, because I don't want to offend you'. It's hard to argue with 30 million people on Twitter.
He isn't a woke shill. He's just your run of the mill creatively bankrupt Hollywood director.
The first movie hid behind some iconic moments and Phoenix's powerful performance. Strip those away, and what remains is a bit nonsensical. He produced a star is born : a successful musical with Lady Gaga. Looks like he tried to cash in with the same combination, and the appetite for it wasn't there.
My theory:
James Gunn told Todd that this Joker series is a dead end. He won't use it in Gunn's DC cinematic universe and wants Joker dead. DC comics gives Todd a carte blanche to do what he wants. Dude goes full whack by throwing every trick in his book at it. Musical, rape, police brutality, Lady Gaga, Harley Quinn & death. That's how you get this mess.
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
I was undecided on unions. This video black-pilled me.
The entire cabal of entitled brats must be abolished. It's a an alliance of anti-social elements on either side of the culture war. None of these jobs need to exist. In that sense, the US has a more social welfare than Europe. It's just that this welfare goes to a small group who exploit social dynamics to siphon money.
The majority of longshoremen seem to be based out of NJ and NY. Do their votes matter for the presidential election ?
Times like these make you miss leaders like Lee Kuan Yew. This speech would have won Kamala the election. Alas, leaders of this era have no spine.
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
I wouldn't index on PISA scores too much.
National curriculums and latent interest in PISA scores play a large role. East/South Asian curriculum is STEM focused. By age 15, Asians are spending 10+hr/day studying for their standardized tests (Gaokao, Jee, Suneung ). In comparison, western students seem to be chilling. Even rigorous schools focus on students' ability to do projects and be well rounded. Also some countries care a lot about the day of the test (East Asia, some parts of Europe) and it is practically unknown in other countries.
Lastly, it can be gamed easily. PISA mostly samples from major cities. Due to the nature of the Hukuo system, urban China has a disproportionately high achieving population.
The scores are directionally correct and the quartiles won't change even after accounting for gamification. But a country's true rank can easily be off by a good 15 ranks in either direction.
When will the Dems learn? Coastal elites lose elections.
America only has 2 swingable regions that matter:
Includes Mich, Wisc & Eastern PA. All 3 states have swung together for decades.
This includes Arizona & Nevada. Both states are growing rapidly and have a massive (30+%) swingable Latino population. The tiny black population means that an alienated white populace + unenthusiastic Latino population will certainly lose you both states. They tend to swing together too. Both went Blue-senate, red-presidency this year.
AOC would be horrible for both these regions. AOC is young. No reason to force it. Show your wider appeal by becoming NY Governor. That's America's 4th most powerful elected position after President, CA Governor & Texas Governor. Big improvements to NY state should give her enough visibility and time to become a Presidential candidate.
But for the next decade, the democratic candidate must identify with one of the above 2 regions.
The 3 nationally recognized candidates from this region are:
Well, look at that. They are also the 3 most liked active democrats.
I am biased towards Pete because he's charismatic, doesn't treat republicans like idiots (has a solid fox news relationship) and is a pro-transit YIMBY. He is also Gay in a lowkey, pro-family way. I don't much about Whitmer. Kelly's dedicated husband + Top gun + Astronaut story is an incredible sell. If only he wasn't bald.
It's still very early, but among those who are more tuned in, how do people around you perceive these 3 politicians ?
Random insane stat:
In the last 50 years, every Republican president has been a coastal elite (Trump, Reagan, Bushes) and no Democratic president has been both coastal and elite (Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden).
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