DenpaEnthusiast
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User ID: 131
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
I did my own, less nuanced but better-sourced analysis:
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The FBI says that in 2019, 51.3% of people arrested for "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" were black (archive). If we assume that this was the same in 2021 and that the people being arrested are the same race as the people who actually committed the murder, this means that 13354 homicides were committed by blacks.
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The US Census says that 13.6% of Americans in 2021 were black (archive). There were 332 million total Americans, so that's 45 million total black Americans. About half of them will be male, so that's 22.5 million black male Americans in 2021.
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If we assume that every murder is committed by a different person and that black women don't commit murder, this means that there is a 13354/22.5 million=0.059% chance that any specific black male has committed a murder in 2021.
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The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that the life expectancy of a black male born in 2021 is 66.7 years (archive). If the murder rate stays constant and there are no repeat offenders, that means there is a 0.059%*66.7=3.9% chance that a black male will, in his entire life, murder someone.
3.9% is not that different from 4.5%. But the assumption that each murderer commits exactly one murder is suspect. The substack article says "the actual ratio of Victims:Murderers is near 1:1", but doesn't give any justification for this assumption, nor does it cite any evidence. I would intuitively expect this to not be true, but I also have no data on this, and it's harder to measure than any of the statistics I actually cite. Additionally, my assumption that arrest rates reflect reality may not be true. If whites are better at covering up their murders than blacks, we would be disproportionately arresting blacks for murder, which would skew my estimation. Plus, I just assumed away the possibility that women commit any murder. Overall, my number is probably an overestimate.
Finally, if you run the numbers for whites you get about 1%. If this also seems unusually high to you, consider that your priors are likely formed from the people you meet in real life. Murderers are disproportionately likely to be in prison, where you won't interact with them.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
This is an incredible failure of public health messaging.
How so? The table you linked shows children ages 0-4 having higher death rates than children ages 5-17, but lower death rates than adults. The stats @Inflamed_Heart_Liberal linked shows children ages 0-4 having higher up-to-date rates then children ages 5-11 and 12-17, but lower rates than adults. This seems like exactly what we would expect from a well- informed population: groups with higher death rates are more likely to be up to date.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
the straight male desire for sex is mostly about status
This is a ridiculous assertion. If sexual desire were mostly about status then substitutes for sex would also be about that. But the obvious substitutes (masturbation and pornography) do not confer status. Instead, they mimic the physical qualities of sex. I won't argue that status plays no role at all, but it plays much less of a role than the actual sensations do.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
Because the stated goal is not to "improve outcomes", it's to "increase equity", and pulling down high performers is just as equitable and easier than boosting up low performers.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
No. In that hypothetical we lack the information that the picture corresponds to something that exists in reality. I can ask a random number generator for 512*512 pixels, and the result can be equivalent to a picture of you, but unless I somehow find it that it is equivalent I am lacking information that I would have if I took a photo of you.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
Looks like it. I didn't realize bare domain names got automatically converted to links.
Let's test something:
nitter DOT net is based in Germany, and German instances seem to work worse for me. I use nitter DOT 1d4 DOT us which works pretty well. There is a list of public instances at https://xnaas.github.io/nitter-instances/
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
If you're fine with mobi files, you can get Pact from https://github.com/TheBrain0110/worm_scraper. Pale isn't on there, but the script would probably work on it too if you wanted to run it locally.
DenpaEnthusiast
1yr ago
This but unironically. If the people in a region have a grand shared purpose now, then they are a nation now. A rich and storied history is a good way to achieve that, but on its own is neither necessary nor sufficient.
DenpaEnthusiast
2yr ago
But I don't value market efficiency. Market efficiency is only useful as a means to an end. If nvidia were to charge more, they could at least use that money to make more graphics cards. When a scalper does it, they just increase the price for the consumer. They're worse than the people who drive into disaster areas and sell bottles of water for $50; even if it would be better for the disaster victims to get water for cheaper or free, they're at least generating some value by shipping it in and distributing it. Graphics card scalpers just generate value for themselves while lowering value for actual consumers and being net neutral for producers. As @SubstantialFrivolity says, they're parasites, unhelpful to anyone but themselves.
DenpaEnthusiast
2yr ago
For example 2, I think it's also important that the request is being made to a group of people, rather than a singular person. The government would be equally happy whether Alice voted and Bob didn't or Bob voted and Alice didn't. In contrast, Twitter has only 2 possible responses and all the blame for their decision.
DenpaEnthusiast
2yr ago
Hellen Keller is remembered more as a deaf person than a deaf activist though. Most Americans probably couldn't name Anne Sullivan, the corresponding non-deaf activist. And if you ask Americans to just name a trans person, they'll probably know Caitlin Jenner.
DenpaEnthusiast
2yr ago
Who is calling for state action against the ISP? All the arguments in the HN comments that mention legality are about whether what is on KiwiFarms counts as harassment or not. I can't find anyone advocating that the ISP be fined or arrested for not peering.
Being in the back with her head down and her face obscured makes her look like the "before" part of an SSRI commercial. She's supposed to be looking at the baby, but it doesn't work because the baby isn't the focus of the picture. Either the baby should be the focus and all three of them should be looking at it, or the couple should stay as the focus but she should be looking at them and smiling. As it is, she looks unhappy and disconnected.
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