CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
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User ID: 333
Someone said MI, WI and PA need to be won to allow Harris a path to victory at the moment. WI and PA are about 1% ahead for Trump right now with about 50% of those two states counted.
Edit: WI, MI and PA currently ahead for Trump in the count. Shitposters are memeing 'Trump built the Red Wall'.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
16d ago
Trump's ahead in WI (and PA for a few seconds at around 43% counted) right now. Less opportunities to rig things now covid's over. Polymarket spiking past 85%. This is looking like a solid win.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
17d ago
This makes sense to me. I think I saw somewhere that early voting skewed female, which makes me think men just spontaneously turn up to the polls on the day. You'd want to give them a nudge at the last minute, like the night before.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
17d ago
Brazilian Churrascaria, preferably in Brazil. Vegans need not apply.
Alternatively, Argentinian Steakhouse (in Buenos Aires) and get a steak (of your choice) and local red wine.
I haven't had better meat eating experiences, and I've been around the world.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
17d ago
Agreed, but the BBC was reporting there were 'no known links to Islam', presumably after police had searched the guy's house and found the ricin and Al Qaeda manual. At the same time, police had said they weren't currently treating it as a terrorist incident.
There was a huge loss in trust of the government to accurately report what they knew about the attack when they knew it. The latest excuse seems to be that reporting information about motives early 'might impact the legal case against the attacker', with no same standard being held to the Prime Minister quickly painting rioters as 'Far Right Extremists' with a sweeping broad brush prior to their trials.
In an attempt to mitigate ethnic tension in the short term via narrative control, the UK government has lost long term credibility in their reporting of future incidents.
Anyone that wants more information on this topic should check out the /r/unitedkingdom subreddit and search for 'southport stabbings'. Huge culture-war flareup over the last few days with some accounts seemingly doing damage control for the govt's early narrative.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
17d ago
I don't have an issue with only promising to certify 'fair' elections in hindsight, because that is Trump's current attitude too.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
17d ago
I am starting to theorize that Prediction markets will have a bit of a bias inherent to them on certain issues, given that the participants are generally pro-capitalist and like/trust markets.
I think there is too, although I haven't spent as much time looking at this bias as others. Smells like an opportunity.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
19d ago
Nate Silver on the Selzer Poll:
Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong.
I'm not believing late in the game polls that show large swings out of nowhere. There's been a few influencers that have wisely said 'don't believe anything you see in the news in the last few days before the election.'
Edit: Nate didn't have much good to say about the Emerson poll either.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
20d ago
I appreciate these sort of roundups and what you're doing. Cheers.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
20d ago
I had allergy issues and went to an ENT (after basically asking a GP directly for a referral and giving them enough dot points about my situation that they rubber stamped my request). The ENT I saw put me onto this stuff and said that he (personally) uses it regularly for sinusitis. I didn't use it long enough to know if the active ingredient can create a tolerance.
I'm not a doctor at all, just a clumsy googling amateur interested in his own health (like many here).
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
21d ago
General JD/Rogan comment:
When he heard Trump was shot he took his kids home from mini-golf, loaded his guns and stood sentry at his house. Fuck yeah.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
22d ago
my Otorhinolaryngologist (do anglos really use that term?)
Its Ear/Nose/Throat (ENT) doctor/specialist where I come from.
There are over-the-counter mild nasal steroid sprays (active ingredient Mometasone furoate 50 micrograms/spray) that can alleviate some symptoms of sinusitis and can be used indefinitely. Go to a pharmacist and explain your symptoms and see what they recommend. Try a regime before considering surgery.
Consider getting checked out for hayfever/allergies. I'm not sure how effective anti-histamines are for allergic based sinusitis (not a doctor).
Otherwise, yeah go find a referral to an ENT specialist (otorhinolaryngologist?) and tell them what you've said here.
Edit: Consider environmental factors that changed when this got a lot worse. New pets? New House? New city with new air quality/pollen count?
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
23d ago
Various Biden friendly transcribers have done a reasonable steelman of his words with clever punctuation (not least of which is the white house's):
"And just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” Well, let me tell you something. I don’t — I — I don’t know the Puerto Rican that — that I know — or a Puerto Rico, where I’m fr- — in my home state of Delaware, they’re good, decent, honorable people. The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American. It’s totally contrary to everything we’ve done, everything we’ve been. "
There's a few other clever transcriptions around culture war Twitter which try to make it look like he was only talking about the comedian (sorry I can't find any easily, but I've seen them out in the wild).
The video is pretty damning if you take it as face value, but it could be taken as a senior moment if a viewer was going to be charitable.
I think Team Trump is making hay out of it with a Deplorable/Facists/Garbage meme at the moment (again no link sorry), reinforced by the positive Trump tweet.
tldr; I think this will shift the needle slightly, but the speed of the culture war is moving so fast right now, it might all be forgotten by tomorrow as the next event hits.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
23d ago
I really don't understand the push against election security. In all other areas of government regarding probity and integrity, there is an understanding that the appearance of integrity is just as important as the integrity itself. It's such low hanging fruit to institute controls that are commonly found throughout the rest of the free world.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
24d ago
I don't have a dog in this fight, but there's an article that police are looking for the owners of a Volvo S-60 spotted near the box via CCTV.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
25d ago
I think this was a coordinated October Surprise that was likely concocted on some Journolist style forum somewhere. It's targeted at low information voters who it's authors hope will not look into the claims in the way that you are here. There was an accusation by Hilary Clinton that Trump was trying to re-enact a 1939 Fascist rally at the same venue. There was also The Atlantic article that said Trump said he wanted the type of generals that Hitler had. Prior to that there was also their article that Trump spoke like Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini.
Am I supposed to understand it as 'Hitler' is just secular for 'the devil' and it simply means 'Trump is Evil' without any more substantative depth intended than if someone called Obama 'the devil'?
Basically. I believe it to just be a blatant ad hominem. Many on the left have been trying to label Trump as a fascist for years. There's probably also some element of the left that has Antifa sympathies. If you label your enemy a fascist successfully, then you can do anything to destroy them without guilt.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
25d ago
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
25d ago
I couldn't believe the audacity of employees wanting to use their employer's profit making organisation for their own political ends. But I guess entryism has been around for a while now so I shouldn't be surprised.
Seriously though, you're trying to use your boss's business to promote politics against his interests? What did you think was going to happen?
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
25d ago
Can't help with the nicotine (which likely complicates things), but I have had a real easy time reducing caffeine by switching from coffee to black tea (with milk, but you get the idea). It's a much smoother experience I think due to the Theanine or other chemicals that come with the package. No jitters, no crash.
edit: Really hard to have too much tea (and you can even sneak some into your afternoon with less impact on sleep disruption.)
Can someone steelman US tariffs for me? Is there a way that tariffs (or more likely, the threat of tariffs) is a plausible economic policy?
Would you need a large market to be accessible for sales so that overall profit would outway the labor and regulatory costs in establishing production back in the US?
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
26d ago
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
26d ago
Old habits die hard. Elizabeth was much more likeable.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
26d ago
Trump just naturally learned to be charismatic. Trump is very flawed, but I found it interesting how Rogan as a comedian saw and respected Trump's oratory. The timing, the way to hold a crowd. It's great when people see something in their own craft in the craft of others.
It's Better to be Lucky than Good
I’m not a practiced Bayesian, and to be honest this is as much as a victory lap as it is a reflection on my priors. Oh lets, be honest. This is mostly a victory lap.
My major election posts in the lead up:
I noted Joe Rogan had solidified his status as a Kingmaker after the Trump interview. This seems to have been born out by Trump’s quick acknowledgment of Rogan’s endorsement and the large shout out by Dana White in Trump’s Victory speech. Even before the interview, I noted Trump going on Rogan was a Big Deal. I realized I was right about the impact when NBC of all things made multiple references to the ‘Joe Rogan Army’ during their election coverage when noting the young male turnout.
After going on Rogan, the McDonalds photo op, and Kamala’s failure to resonate in her campaign, I made a Trump win prediction at 55-60% certainty 10 days before the election.
I quickly noted the Selzer poll was likely bullshit.
Things I got wrong:
I underestimated the impact of the Garbage fiasco. I thought it was just more random flotsam in the election and would probably be quickly forgotten. To be fair I didn’t know Trump’s team would use meme magic to force the MSM to cover Trump speaking from a garbage truck. The nail in the coffin was when he honked the horn (rare footage)
I didn’t post about this, but I did upvote Blackpill posts about Democrat election fraud. I really did expect 3am mystery trucks, election officials putting up paper over the windows and keeping monitors outside, gas/water leaks and restarting the count after monitors had gone home etc etc at about 65-70% certainty. That didn’t eventuate thankfully.
Takeaways:
I’m not an American citizen/resident so I’m not immersed in the election. I am ‘very online’. I rate my election prediction performance as ‘not bad’ for this one, but I put that down to my information diet curation. My major aggregator was actually here at the Motte (with some other centrist non-MSM sources) and I would then go down rabbit holes myself for further research. I leveraged the screening and arguments of this forum to better inform myself, so I consider myself pretty lucky to be here.
One last point is that I’m upgrading my view of betting markets to consider them a credible source. They won’t be my only source, but I’m now taking them seriously. Polymarket got this one right.
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