AlexanderTurok
Just Another Alt-MSNBC Guy
User ID: 3346
AlexanderTurok
24d ago
Republicans are winning over tech bros and unions, and bleeding college-educated voters.
Unions sure, but I'd be surprised if Republicans were winning more tech workers than they did in 2012.
AlexanderTurok
25d ago
NYT had a good article about political sorting:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html
AlexanderTurok
25d ago
Here's a map of the Presidential vote swing from 2012 to 2024:
https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1860310329248325759
It makes me wonder how much of Trump's appeal to midwestern industrial workers is dependent on trade rather than a broader, cultural working-class identity. I don't think farmers in Iowa swung massively toward him because they were mad their factories were being sent to China. Ditto with the Rio Grande Valley and Miami-Dade county.
AlexanderTurok
26d ago
The challenge with striking against the pro-life movement is it's unclear what exactly the pro-life movement wants. Do they want more children or fewer?
AlexanderTurok
26d ago
I said "Griggs v. Duke Republicans" which are a subset of urban, educated, irreligious voters. RFK Jr., who supports reparations and throwing "climate deniers" in jail is not part of that. He's more a Dale Gribble voter:
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/the-rise-of-the-dale-gribble-voter
AlexanderTurok
28d ago
Vance is definitely a Roe v. Wade Republican, see: https://x.com/JDVance/status/1722311695140298978. Musk is just an average Fox News watcher at this point. RFK Jr. is not a Republican at all.
AlexanderTurok
28d ago
Be more critical of Trump and his administration and movement. Don't be the partisan for a tribe you aren't even really part of.
AlexanderTurok
28d ago
They could say it's irrelevant to the case. Her belief that she needed the abortion is not a defense of the doctor's conduct.
AlexanderTurok
28d ago
I want to discuss a recent tweet:
The humor, I’m not sure if it’s intended, is that “Griggs v. Duke Republicans” are an almost entirely online phenomenon. They don’t have a mass of voting power in the real world. Republican politicians, to the extent they’re aware they exist, would be fine losing the few votes they have, many of which are locked in deep blue areas. They’re not serving in the Trump administration. Very few have actual influence on policymakers. Chris Rufo does. Richard Hanania, maybe a little.
The Roe v. Wade Republican is comfortable in the Republican coalition. He’s the type of guy nobody is surprised to learn votes Republican. The Griggs v. Duke Republican is cross-pressured; he’s white and male but also educated, irreligious, and urban. The Roe v. Wade Republican watched the Republican convention speeches. The Griggs v. Duke Republican didn’t because, deep down, he knows the speeches were not for him. It’s not really his party. But then he logs on to an online community of other Griggs v. Duke Republicans and fools himself into thinking people like him are a notable part of the Republican base.
Sometimes the Griggs v. Duke Republican is sufficiently disgusted by the low-class and religious portions of the Republican base that he angrily denounces it and becomes a centrist or even a left-winger. The Republican reaction is … nothing because they don’t even take any note of such people.
My message to Griggs v. Duke Republicans, from a Griggs v. Duke guy who used to be a Republican, is this. There is a difference between voting for a party and being part of that party’s coalition. Richard Spencer voted for Kamala but is not part of the Democratic coalition. You, Mr. Griggs v. Duke Republican, are not part of the Republican coalition. Maybe that will change someday. Maybe Griggs v. Duke Republicans will start running for office. Maybe you can be the change you want to see in the world and do that. But right now, you’re on the outside looking in.
AlexanderTurok
29d ago
No, the Supreme Court insists that the doctor make a reasonable medical judgement that the medical exception applies. The doctor did not claim this; she claimed only a good faith belief that the exception applied. The original pleading goes into great detail why the plaintiff doesn't think requiring a "reasonable medical judgement" is a good standard, but the Supreme Court did not agree. The doctor could, of course, have -- without risk to herself -- asserted a "reasonable medical judgement" in the pleading.
Word games.
AlexanderTurok
29d ago
"They also have the mother, who will tearfully testify about how excited her and her husband were when they got pregnant and how sick she got at the hospital and how terminating the pregnancy was the hardest decision of her life and how the defendant is a hero, etc."
What if the judge is hostile and decides to disallow that testimony?
AlexanderTurok
29d ago
Even if this is true, so what? Texas isn't one of those places that believes in an inherent right to medical treatment. Freedom includes people who aren't you who do not wish to associate with you. Maybe if you need something from someone, you should either sit at the table with them and negotiate or else find a way to do without them, such as by training up pro-life doctors.
AlexanderTurok
29d ago
A doctor says an abortion is medically necessary.
"Well, we have to have judges second-guessing those decisions, otherwise doctors would abuse the system."
A doctor won't say an abortion is medically necessary.
"Gotta defer to doctors and their medical expertise!"
AlexanderTurok
29d ago
That seems like a "them" problem, unless there's some actual evidence of such prosecutions.
If you're in Texas and are a woman or have a wife, sister, or daughter, it sounds like a "you" problem.
AlexanderTurok
1mo ago
I'd say he'll lose maybe 1/100. The people who were bothered by stuff like that left the Trump train long ago and numerically there are not many of them.
AlexanderTurok
1mo ago
"The fentanyl dealer on the street is nearly universally considered a social malefactor, I doubt Tabarrok would defend this particular class of entrepeneur."
Legalization of drugs is a standard libertarian belief.
"If US big pharma is so great, why is US life-expectancy declining?"
It was declining due to covid and a bunch of people choosing to put fentanyl in their bodies. Many Americans choose to be fat. There was a time when individual responsibility was something conservatives believed in.
AlexanderTurok
1mo ago
In discussions of South Korea, I never see any of the proudly childless express any concern about what will happen to them in retirement. They seem to be implicitly assuming that someone else's kids will be paying their pensions.
AlexanderTurok
1mo ago
I don't know why the election has triggered a renewed gender war
It's the abortion issue, which is more Christianity v. secularism than men v. women, but is often conceived of as men v. women.
The WHIMs on Earth are less fertile than average in a country already experiencing sub-replacement fertility. How does a Mars colony deal with that?
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