100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
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User ID: 2039
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
1d ago
I agree that the isolated metric of TFR doesn't do a good job of explaining the problem. Your excellent post outlines how declining birthrates, much like declining homicide rates, are largely explained by better healthcare and general sanitation, much less than a shift in human behavior.
But time of first birth reveals the change with higher fidelity. And this is the real problem. People - women - are having their first child later and later. This raises the risk of complications and lowers the probability of multiple births, especially 3 or more which you need a fair amount of to get total TFR to 2.3ish or so.
The primary explanatory factors for this is probably a mixture of careerism, financial stability necessities (or perceived necessities), and a generally higher tolerance for casual relationships in the late teens to early 20s. There's a lot of culture war embedded in those factors - I'll let the Mottizens arm themselves however they like.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
1d ago
I think you kind of answer your own questions here.
It seems like Wexner, who was bankrolling all of these other organizations. Or, at least, helping them to get bankrolled by donors. Chucked $400m of his own money to Epstein as his grey market lead. Moving money, having the shady conversations with important folks all over the world that you want to have stay out of the press etc.
I don't think it's that shocking? "Fixers" have existed at the outskirts of legitimate organizations forever. Sure, they don't often get $400m, but, whatever, maybe Wexner just didn't care or wanted enough slush on Epstein's books in case something big came around?
The more I learn about all of this, the more and more apparent it becomes that Epstein was a charming middle man who liked to party. He eventually crossed lines for which he was convicted and then, realizing the party was over, killed himself. That's a story that's been repeated a million times. I think the difference is in scale here, not in kind.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
2d ago
(Link above to OpenAI planning to release "Adult Mode" in early 2026)
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
The "oh shit" moment for me in factorio as it relates to software engineering is that there is a fundamental game meta-mechanic where you have to rebuild large parts of your base. You can't not. The way the tech tree progresses, old smelters and belts can't provide the throughput as you advance. Your option is to either abandon them and make new ones or refactor the old sections. And you kind of have to do the latter because there are all of these geographic dependencies flowing into your older base (without trains and other stuff, you can't make central raw materials depots, you have to build belts straight from a coal field to a smelter).
That's literally codebase refactoring / major update / integration with new capability.
Late in the game, with robots, you can get really modular and independent. That's when you're hitting google scale and things like kubernetes actually become super valuable rather than engineer theater.
Tinfoil hat: Factorio was going to be the thing that turned every kid born after 2010 into a dev. Then AI happened and now everyone is a dev and I can build and re-build my base every 20 minutes.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
Absolutely!
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
Fantasy football; The original social media.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
There was a lot of insight packed into a very small space.
Yep. Every section / chapter of Hoffer is like that. Dude was a philosopher in the truest sense of the word.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
Category error. I didn't mean the competition between the teams is capitalist. I mean the competition between the NFL as an entertainment product and the other sports leagues (NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL etc.) as well as different entertainment products (movies, netflix) is the capitalist competition.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I'm not saying we should bring down wages. We should let the market determine the effective wage.
But we should be far, far, far more aggressive in prosecuting tax cheats and outright illegal employment. Because, right now, working a modest W-2 job (i.e. less than median household income) is literally a suckers game.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
Good lord, she's built like a steakhouse but handles like a bistro.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I'll acquiesce as I am not that big of a hockey fan.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
There’s a level of classiness in that culture we’d have a really hard time replicating here
A great way to discern if someone understands "class" or not is if they use the term "class/classy." I always think of Goodfellas and The Sopranos when one of the goombah's without a High School education says something like "She's a real classy broad. No herpes or anything. Wears the good pantyhose."
I'll take my American crassness over the $30k and $45k per capita GDP of Puerto Rico and Italy, respectively.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
There's some nuance here.
NFL ownership doesn't select the half-time show performers. Jay-Z and his production company likely do. As the article indicates, there's some contractual language wherein the NFL, meaning the NFL front office, probably has the final say technically, but the whole operation has Jay-z's company steering it.
You're right in pointing out the low likelihood of fly-over American's not watching football for six months because of one half-time show. You're also right in that the mission for the NFL, explicitly, has been to tap into new markets. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were probably somewhat "planted" by marketing to attract young, female viewers. The recent games in Mexico and Brazil try to capture those markets.
But the culture war angle is valid. It's subtle but then not. The whole thing was in Spanish. Your "sexy dancers" of Shakira and Jennifer Lopez didn't do that. Dr. Dre, Snoop et al celebrated gangster culture, but deracinated Disney gangster culture - low riders and gold chains, not actual murder and drug running. They censored their own lyrics. Rhianna and Usher sell sex and sex sells. That's been true since, at least, the Janet Jackson fake wardrobe malfunction. The normies can deal with it - my aunts cross their arms and slap on resting bitch face when the ass shaking starts, but they don't leave the room the way Grandma may have. Kendrik Lamar was somewhat a flop because the "lore" of him and Drake was too deep for easy access during the superbowl.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
unless you get into things like strap-ons and such.
Or if they get into you.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
Social media and infinite entertainment options means nothing can ever achieve the cultural omnipresence of things before social media’s explosion. I don’t think there will ever be another Harry Potter.
Correct, and I unapologetically, nostalgically miss this.
I remember how universal things like the Super Bowl, New Year's Eve Ball Drop, State of the Union Address, certain movies (Titanic), and even big T.V. show events (Friends finale) were. It didn't matter if they were high art or "actually good" or not, it was that they acted as a sort of social-cultural barometric calibration. If you weren't talking about Britney Spear's 2001 Superbowl half time show at the water cooler (or in homeroom at school) the next day, you were an out of touch loser. You could shit on it, that was fine, but strolling in and going "Did you see that the Mongolian congress had a meeting while sitting on horses?" was a hanging offense.
Again, I'll admit nostalgia. It just seemed like for these short moments a few times a year, there was a big pause on the randomness of individual hive life and a singular orientation to whatever the "thing" was. People also consumed it fully in real time. No one would watch the State of The Union via live tweets, they'd just watch the damn speech. No live blogging, streaming, or video of people watching what everyone else was watching (watch parties).
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I think there used to be some level of cultural relevance for female figure skating and Ice Hockey.
The 1980 Miracle On Ice was a huge deal. My Dad can tell you what he had for breakfast that day and the day Kennedy was shot in 1963. It's that level of "seared into memory."
Figure skating, aside from the whole Tanya Harding nonsense, has been important because it holds female emotional valence and America wants to ensure that our ice dancing barbie dolls are the best ice dancing barbie dolls on earth.
I think both of these have declined in recent years because America fundamentally won hockey by having the NHL. When Aleksander Ovechkin, arguably the GOAT or Vice Goat after Gretzky, plays 20+ years in Washington and not Moscow, the jig is up. The "pro" leagues in Sweden, Finland, Czechia are all just AAAA farm leagues for the NHL.
For figuring skating, the Chinese got really fucking good and our own skaters turned, literally, fake and gay. I think the last superstar was Tara Lapinski? Or maybe that Sasha girl from like 2004 or so.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I'm not sure what your point is?
If you're saying Goodell has nothing to do with it and that the rising tide is lifting all boats, then I need you to account for why the NFL is kicking the shit out of every other major sports organization in the world in terms of valuation.
The only metric that counter this narrative is percentage (so, relative, not absolute) growth of NBA teams values over the past decade. But that counternarrative is it self countered by the fact that The NBA is seeing a decline in viewership. Tech billionaires are propping up the California Teams, but your median American sports fan is watching football, baseball, and hockey.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I watched the game and halftime show at a local watering hole. A pale skinned, red haired young woman with a name equivalent to "Erin McHibernian" was omg-ee-ing with her friend during the halftime show and giggling, "I can't be that girl who gets up and starts dancing to Bah Bunay but I want toooo"
Indeed, I have nothing in common with these people.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I was surprised how well Bad Bunny and the NFL pulled off the "No politics here["]
And I am surprised that you believe this.
To review;
- The entire performance was in Spanish.
- Bad Bunny's definition of "America" included nearly every country in the western hemisphere (including Canada).
- The headlining surprise act was Lady Gaga, an OG, before-it-was-cool wokester, and LGBTQ and trans ideologue.
- Sugar plantation simulated field hand sex. Including the gay sex.
No, Bad Bunny didn't say anything like "fuck ICE" at the end. But to say this wasn't overtly political is to, again, pretend like you don't understand.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
Would be interested if you have something unique regrading the halftime show to report from your greater Acadian networks, @hydroacetylene. If there's nothing there, no worries, but you often have perspective into a subculture that is somewhat opaque.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I'd disagree.
Capitalism has been the most effective tool in history to make the material lives of humans - all of them - demonstrably and unequivocally better. Climate control, cheap indoor plumbing, and internal combustion engines mean that the basic standard of living in the west has outpaced that of royalty not three hundred years ago.
I'd say that most of the "problems of capitalism" are bad feedback loops from efforts to solve the "problems of capitalism." Since you brought up immigration, it makes sense to link to a previous comment.
Capitalism seeking to drive down the prices of labor isn't bad on its own. People can choose to change their skillset, their industry focus, what have you. Immigrants, even low skilled ones, can perhaps improve their lives through immigration because of disparities in national wealth. It can be a positive sum game for all involved.
But then the regulations and legislation enter the system and fuck everything up. Illegal immigrants work for under the table cash and therefore outcompete native born labor that desires to work in a pro-social and citizen-responsible manner (i.e. reporting income appropriately). If they, the natives, do that, however, they are no longer price competitive - but not because of a market mechanism! It's because of an illegal and anti-social defection from the established norms and rules of the market.
Likewise with social safety net programs. For someone who desires to be pro-social and not explot the system, they may use whatever program during periods of unemployment or if there's a serious chronic medical issue. Others will simply falsify records and enjoy free money (something something Somali daycares in minnesota). Then there's perverse incentives -- maybe I do actually have a fucked up back and can only work for 20 hours a week. But, wait, if I do, I might lose my disability. So, instead of sort of 50/50ing it, I just double down on disability payments - and "new" symptoms - to close the gap. It's a shitty existence, but the government won't allow me to supplement my benefits with honest work. People respond to incentives.
I hear you when you're saying you're mad about capitalism. The point I'm trying to make is that what we currently have is a misshapen low-fidelity imitation of capitalism that allows for social defection without punishing it, rent seeking, and regulatory capture. PMC striving and credentialism are reflections of that. Parasitic client-party relationships between illegal and legal immigrants and various democratic statist organizations are the worst reflections of that.
If you're an NFL player, however, you've seen your earnings explode over the last ten years. Owners as well. Fans have received more games with more parity between teams - gone are the days of laugher blowouts. As a football fan, if you couldn't tell, I'll stomach a Viva La Revolucion superbowl half time show because I know none of that shit is going to show up next fall during week six during an important home game. The overall product of football is better across the board; for players, owners, and customers (fans). The capitalist market is working. Does it have any cultural or traditional loyalty? No, and I'd argue that's a good thing. If we start mixing markets and culture, we start looking Chinese in a hurry.
I kind of regret that I wrote "there is no loyalty, there is no tradition, there is only profit and loss." It's way too heavy and blackpilly. An accurate reframing would be "there is no good old boys club, there is no secret handshake anymore, all that matters is how you perform." A bit brutal, sure, but that means the door is open in ways it previously wasn't.
Wall Street and Big Law are famous for mostly hiring from the "prestigious" schools. And that has made them horribly non-innovative and brittle institutions who only continue to exist because of regulatory capture. The big tech firms, although they did have preferences for Stanford/MIT CS grads, are (were?) famous for also hiring kids from weird less-than-awesome schools if they had a cool GitHub repo, or built an app with their friends. For a while there was even a hack of doing something like ycombinator, not really caring about winning the startup race, but just getting the ability to get to San Francisco, network and demonstrate competence, and then get hired. That dried up after it caused too much lack of faith in new ycombinator founders - who need to be laser focused on giga-hype, fraud, and graft building the technologies of tomorrow.
TLDR: Capitalism is as good as you long as you let it be. The more you fuck with it, the less capitalism you have and the more you prevent the fruit of it from ripening.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I'd be extremely surprised if the NFL let an english language performer recite those lyrics.
Pointing back to the 2022 half time show, Snoop and Dr. Dre sang censored versions of their songs from the 1990s.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
I've now updated by odds of this being a troll post to >50%. Well done if you got me. If not, best of luck.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
4d ago
Dude, I've never worked in quant finance. The use of "pedigree" was just short hand for "You should probably have at least an MS in Quant Finance from Baruch / Princeton / Etc. if not a PhD in something applied math related." It had nothing to do with, like, bloodlines. Chill, Bro.
but I seem at least as intelligent and I know more of the math relevant to the topic than them.
Prove it. Solve hard math problems and post your process for doing so online. Start a blog. Push to github. Do something. What else are you asking for? That the hiring managers at quant funds call you up unprompted and ask you politely to show them how smart you are?
So in an efficient market, there should be a job for me.
Stop whining. Understand the world for what it is, not for how you think it should be. These jobs are heavily PEDIGREE and NETWORK driven. You don't have the pedigree, that's fine. Go network. Asking strangers on the internet for advice even netted you free advice - and you 'sperged out about how "there should be a job for me and my smart me brain."
The Karen Sleeper Cell Has Activated
A woman in Kansas City attempted to set fire to a warehouse that was alleged to be an ICE facility of some sort. Or, maybe, it was planned to be an ICE facility in the future. Or something.
I suppose there's room to quibble over this being a technical act of terrorism, insurrection, or just normal arson. Despite my tongue-in-cheek title, I also don't think this is some sort of a flashpoint for semi-organized violence on the part of lefty activists. Probably, it's just one individual who took a leave of their senses and did something dumb, pointless, and illegal.
But it is worth speculating on, on the internet, the mental processes that led to this behavior. One product of the many, many, _many, comments on the Minnesota ICE shootings was the idea that a large part of what's going on is an extreme from of LARPing. Some of these protestors see themselves literally as the inheritors of the Civil Rights Movement, the American Revolution, and The Rebels from Star Wars all in one. They are of The One Right and True Cause and, therefore, all of their actions have inherent justification.
When that line of thinking gets to compound on itself for long enough, people start to burn things.
I've always been suspicious of the "radicalized online" idea. Aside from a few already very mentally odd individuals, I don't buy the idea that you can read enough schizo posts that, one day, you decide to up end your life and do something drastic. I think it's far more likely you just spend more and more time online and indoors engaging in fantasy conflicts.
But I do believe in radicalization as a concept more broadly. Cults and mass social movements exemplify this. At a lower stakes level, simply hanging out with a certain "scene" (think metalheads, goths, punks, whatever) can meaningfully change a person's behaviors and beliefs.
I wonder to what extent the various Minnesota-like organized protesting is now seriously breaking contain for lefties - many of them female - who would, otherwise, mostly vent their aggravation by doing their own kind of schizo posting on Facebook or elsewhere. If this is the case, then we're dealing with something a lot more like a cult or, more geopolitically relevant, something similar to how ISIS spread so quickly after their initial emergence. That does concern me.
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