100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
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User ID: 2039
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
14d ago
Thank you very much for sharing that paper. It is excellent.
Do you have any other "must read" papers on LLMs? Or a link to a good list?
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
14d ago
It's all Progress Quest under the covers
James P. Carse's Finite and Infinite Games will make you think very differently about video games ... to the point that you may stop playing them.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
14d ago
"Truth" in China is not the same as "Truth" in the West.
Can you write more about this? It seems like a very important cultural distinction.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
16d ago
Like most actual assassins, I think his motive was money.
He's too cool under pressure. I don't think the gun malfunctions three out of three times, I think it was a homemade silencer or subsonic rounds that fuck up the cycling of the gun. This means he trained to do the manual cycling. He dumps a phone at the scene; I'd be willing to bet it's scrubbed of anything and this is either an explicit "fuck you" to someone or just excellent evidence hygiene with a burner. And then uses a public bike service that is known to have GPS trackers on them to escape in the most densely populated city in the US. And, as of this morning still, he has not been caught. This is a pro's pro.
And that's why the motive is probably shocking in its brutal simplicity - my money is on some internal shit at United Healthcare or something with a competitor. Tens of billions on the line etc. Remember, the CEO was in town for an investor meeting. That's a symbol and message all on its own.
Somebody went ultra greedy and decided to do this using a spreadsheet and a slide rule. That's far more terrifying that "random schizo goes bang bang"
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
16d ago
Well, in absolute terms sure. But in relative term he only had to be more competent than the secret service.
Tallest midget. Fastest quadriplegic. Most gentlemanly at the gangbang.
If you're retreating to relativism in an argument, you're sliding down the hill fast. Cede the field, re-group, and come back better.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
16d ago
...So, uh, is this how the weekly Motte GunGuy threads start? I'm totally in, BTW.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
16d ago
I like this post because it is legitimately "off-topic" from a lot of what the Motte usually focuses on. I'll offer some points, random and unorganized.
"My speculation is that Laufey's fans want her music to be considered jazz"
I think this is at the core of most issues with what is called "taste" in the aesthetic and fashion(able) sense. One's tastes are closely linked to one's personal affinities, but within the context of what social proof collectively deems "good". If I have a beer on my own with no one around me, it's almost nonsensical for me to tell myself that "I have good taste." Ordering the "right" beer (or other drink) around others is a matter of taste. If I'm at a fancy steakhouse and order a shot and a beer to the table, this is a faux pas because it signals a failure to recognize context and circumstance. In that way, taste is very much like humor - I can tell dick jokes with my buddies when we're out camping, but, at that same steakhouse, I need to recognize the social context.
The problem your quote about Jazz points to - as well as the larger McMansion discussion - is that, sometimes, people will correctly identify something that is seen as high value taste signalling, but utterly fuck up their own interpretation of it. We can forgive their lack of ability to correctly imitate / execute the attainment of that high value taste, but we tend not to forgive their obvious desire to attain it. In this way, taste is like coolness; if you have to loudly announce how cool you are, you aren't cool (social proof cannot be coerced by sheer force of will ... at best, it can be purchased). Laufey's fans want her to be considered Jazz because Jazz is cool and they want to be cool. What they've failed to recognize is that there are other ways of being cool (you brought up Sinatra, for example), so the better signalling strategy is to signal towards what you are naturally inclined to.
Returning to my steak dinner example, there can be times when a crass dick joke is not only appropriate but uproariously funny - when it is an authentic gesture. If Matthew McConaughey is at the table with me and makes the dick joke, it's an authentic reflection of his cool-guy-down-to-earth-texas-man-of-the-people attitude (leave aside for a moment if this is a carefully crafted hollywood persona, that's a whole different discussion).
Which leads me to point 2
Taste is about knowledge and expertise.
The McMansion Hell write-ups are great because they describe in specific terms what a lot of people feel intuitively but cannot label. A house that is too big for its lot size with a bunch of mixed architectural styles (each trying to separately ape something that is already recognize as cool and high value taste) represents both a) an inauthentic imitation of style that is incongruent within the context and b) poorly executed. A good architect would do a better job of combining those styles, or choosing a single style for the whole home. It would be proportional to the lot size and probably fit better with the surrounding homes in the neighborhood.
Bad taste is as much about bad reasoning and familiarity with a subject as it is about poor social understanding. Johnny Depp can get away with dressing like a homeless pirate because he actually knows (or his stylist actually knows) how to drape scarves just the right way, and how many bracelets are too much. That is a specific knowledge and it can't be faked. A lot of it is in the details. Three piece suits have made a bit of a comeback in the past few years. Aside from a lot of guys not knowing how the vest should fit, they wear it with the bottom-most button fastened. This is not how a vest is buttoned up (you leave the last button undone). Why? There's probably some historical reason but today it is a subtle signal that you've taken the time to become knowledgeable about the fashion and you aren't being an inauthentic and clumsy imitator.
As a bit of an aside, the taste-knowledge feedback loop is, indeed, a reinforcing loop. A few years ago, I decided I wanted to upgrade by cooking skills. I studied some of the classic French schools and would drill myself repeatedly (Chicken Fricasse...four nights in a row). Eventually, my taste (in the literal sense) did actually become more sensitive and precise. I could actually taste different fruits in cognac. I could tell if a sauce was the right consistency based on mouth feel. I used to think sommeliers were full of shit for saying a wine was "light and airy" but now I .... kind of get it. (p.s. I will still go HAM on a Big Mac at 2 am because I'm "a real one" as the kids say).
The point, again, is that taste is cultivated with knowledge, and destroyed with cheap imitations of it. I'd say this even applies to domains that aren't at all associated with normal notions of "taste." Sales, for instance. A bad salesman apes the appearance of a good salesman - the suit, plastic smile, haircut, expensive watch. They throw out a couple of salesman lines they read online somewhere meant to "reframe" the conversation, but they're done clumsily and without much effect other than to make the bad salesman feel like he's a good one. The best salesman ... talk very little and mostly let the customer sell themselves. How do they do this? I don't know for sure and, if I did, I doubt it could be condensed into a few sentences other than to say; they have some form of real knowledge and expertise that let's them do this.
So, to answer you final question:
If you can't discern the difference between two things and someone else says that they have strong opinions over their respective quality. what do YOU do?
Exercise epistemic humility first, then make a value judgement.
Defer to the person who can demonstrate knowledge about the taste subject. The architect who can point out that the gables are too gable-y. The sommelier who can tell you that the Chateau Pop-D-Noof was founded in 1769 by 420 gay monks because the vineyards were the least heretical in all the land. The steak guy who can tell you about the hind quarter fatty tissue rendering temperature. These people know more than you, and you need to have the humility to know that. If your taste differs from them, understand you know less and that your taste could change if you knew more.
Then, make a value judgement for your life about if you care enough to go get that knowledge. If you don't, that's perfectly fine and you can then say "Well, I like Franzia." You are allowed to take comfort in that because of your control over your own values and time in life. The value of that opinion is no less than the value of the expert - but the expert, in the right context, will collect more social esteem than you. And that's also fine because then you can demonstrate a higher level virtue - humility - and learn a little.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
17d ago
This is an amazing conflation of two points. I wouldn't want to debate you in person as you seem adept at twisting an argument.
Point 1: Incentives matter. People will put themselves through extreme hardships given proper incentives (this was the Special Ops / pro military argument)
Point 2: We should expect the overwhelming majority of women to go through childbirth as the species is dependent upon it.
Your franken-counter-assertion "We are demanding that women be like special operations!"
I see what you did there. It was well done, my congratulations.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
18d ago
Just for avoidance of doubt - my post is considered unacceptable?
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
Nate Silver wants to share what he wrote in his journal with you - LINK -
He's couching it as a "Reader Q&A" but it's a self-reflective series on him, his substack, the election, polls, and politics in general. If you're already fed up with Mr. Silver, it could be an exasperating read. I am not, however, and do find Nate's straight political takes (without any of the bulllshit "data journalism" or woo-woo risk and gambling stuff) to be better than the average pundit.
Just before the paywall, Silver concludes with a paragraph that reveals the rot at the core of the PMC-liberal elite;
For me, “Trump’s even worse!” worked one last time and I voted for Harris — largely because of January 6 and because Trump, like Biden, is too old. But maybe some of my gut feeling that Trump would win was because I sympathized with voters’ instincts to punish the Democratic Party more than I did in 2016 and 2020. Being willing to take a short-term hit to discourage coercion or punish broken promises is probably a pretty good default, an attitude that’s close enough to rational more often than not.
Dishonesty has a price. The Liberal/Left coalition has been held together by ducktape, glue, and the continued adherence to the idea of a "better tomorrow" as guided by the experts. But they're all inveterate liars and the American people finally called them out on it. Is it a full moon, Nate's turning into a self-awarewolf.
The Galaxy Brain move for Biden would be;
- Privately ask Trump, now, to pardon Hunter on Day 1 of his admin. Trump does seem to genuinely love his kids and so the father-to-father humility would work.
- Trump does this even though it pisses off some of his more conspiratorial supporters - but they forget about it in a news cycle when Kash Patel is defenestrating FBI bureaucrats or something.
- Biden publicly thanks Trump and shakes his hand at a rose garden meeting or some other photo op.
The only fly in this ointment is that the left has really gone all into the "Literally Hitler" line. It's not that Trump would be so vengeful to rebuff Biden if the Delaware Destroyer himself were to come, hat in hand, to Mar-A-Lago to ask for the favor, it's that Biden, BidenWorld, and the rest of the Left Establishment is so permanently apoplectic over Trump's continued existence that they cannot see a clever- but straightforward - move here. Pride before the fall. Lack of humility. Richness of spirit. And they wonder how they become the villains.
(Quick) Edit: Ah, well. Guess I was wrong
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
Yes. Dozens. Military as well.
None of the cops comes across as authoritarian-seeking power trippers. Most are deeply committed to the idea of justice. A minority are just doing what their Dads did. In High School, they were all athletes except for one who was just sort of a meathead.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
and a lot of cops get into law enforcement because they get to exercise power over others.
I'd argue this is 100% culture war. Has there been any study that replicates that can point to a major motivating factor of police recruits being authoritarian impulses? Related, is there any data that backs up the (goofy) claim that X% of people who join the military do so in order to be able to kill people.
How would such a study even be constructed? Self-surveys? Big 5 personality traits? This is exactly the kind of data that can always been squinted-at in just the right way so as to "back-up" a latent intent kind of assertion.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
most 24 year old men don’t want to be married with three children at that age.
24 year old men, for the overwhelming majority of human history, absolutely wanted to be married with multiple children. Modern society is the exception, not the rule. Now, let's not resists temptation to hit the RETVRN button.
Instead, let's figure out how to encourage earlier family formation while still enjoying the benefits - and avoiding the pitfalls - of modern technology and industrial capacity.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
Surprised to see less coverage of these points from the article:
But the deterrent effect of crime being illegal at all, as opposed to basically legal and not even resulting in arrest, is very very strong.
There is substantial evidence that increasing the visibility of the police by hiring more officers and allocating existing officers in ways that materially heighten the perceived risk of apprehension can deter crimes.
Part of me wants to take some time to dunk here on the Defund The Police movement. The really do hate the most at risk communities. But, that's probably mostly fruitless, especially on the Motte.
The fact remains that Scott's article points to the fact that one of the most cost effective ways to reduce the occurrence of all crimes (leaving aside incarceration and rehabilitation dilemmas) is to have more cops all over the play. In one of Roland Fryer's papers, I seem to remember a similar conclusion.
The culture war angle to this is that, as long as I can remember, Cops have been the victims of cultural denigration on the left. This can range from the goofy-humorous (Chief Wiggum on the Simpsons, the trope of donuts, Sooper Troopers and smiliar movies) to the naked hostile; ACAB, Fuck Tha Police, 90s gangster rap that clearly identifies street cops as the primary bad guy in the hood (not the, you know, murderous criminals that kill the friends of the protagonist). Even more nuance depictions of cops often share tropes of personal failings and issues with leadership and corruption - Harvey Keitel in Bad Lieutenant, Matthew McCanaughey and Woody Harrelson in True Detective. The biggest pop culture cop show is probably Law an Order and its many spinoffs. Most of the cops here are pretty immaculate in their personal conduct, with the primary conflict in each episode generally being the dramatic discovery of a smoking gun or other key piece of information. Still, it being a drama, many episodes feature a less than comforting ending where a bad person goes to prison, but the victim is still victim-itized and has an implied hard life after the credits role. Law and Order: SVU had a rolling subplot about the emotional toll of those cases on the lead detectives.
Suffice it to say; the Culture War isn't great for cops. So, if one of the best solutions to crime is to have lots more cops, and we assume some sort of political minor miracle wherein we all agree on this and fund it, I worry about our ability to fill the ranks. Interestingly, this kind of dovetails with the other big thread this week on fertility collapse and population issues - women don't have good incentive to be Moms and we ought to improve the status of motherhood. Id argue that the status of cops - an implicitly male and patriarchal role - is also quite low and in need of some rehabilitation.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
19d ago
I don't think I see your point and, to the extent that (I think) I do, I reject it.
Are you saying that it's unreasonable to expect 80%+ of women to go through pregnancy and labor? I mean, I get it, it's not like this is a species level existential issue - oh, wait, that's exactly what we're talking about.
This is a deeply values based discussion. Pregnancy and childbirth might "suck" and "ruin your body" but the end result is the creation of a human life and, if done during peak fertility years, decades of love and joy. Furthermore, it's necessary for the species to continue itself.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
20d ago
I'm real dumb, can you tell me what the obvious third problem is so I feel less dumb?
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21d ago
@hyrdoacetylene
Can you share your most commonly seen models of family formation and early child rearing where you are? Genuine question / curiosity.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21d ago
Uh, who waits for years after getting married to start having babies? Is it really something that's common in the blue tribe?
Yes, very.
The marriage is a big, self-referential celebration of Disney style True Love. Marriage inside of an actual church is less and less common and, for the couples that are doing it because Mom and Dad would be otherwise displeased, the "ceremony" is one reading and the vows. The real ceremony is always the reception which is a strange bacchanalia devotion to the Wife. The husband is pretty much a slightly drunk usher. The "best" weddings are the ones where everyone gets incredibly hammered, but there is no violence, vomiting, or immediately broken vows.
Usually it's about 2 years before the first kid.
Narcissism is strong.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21d ago
"Permanent damage to your body" is something millions of people will willingly do if the STATUS incentive is high enough:
- Military Special Operations
- Professional Athletes
- High stress jobs with extreme levels of compensation (Banker, High end Surgeon, big Litigator etc.)
In fact, what I just listed above are some of the tippy-top status markers for men. Personal health is not at all sacrosanct (flip the coin; millions of people smoke, drink too much, eat too much, and never exercise).
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
25d ago
Thank you for the detailed response and commentary. Great effortpost.
Let me know if this would make a suitable blogpost.
Probably. With the big "IF" upfront of - I don't think simply cataloging the NRx idea ecosystem is of a ton of interest on its own (outside of the morbidly curious like myself). What would be truly widely appealing, imho, is trying to trace how we got to NRx starting from post WW2 conservative / tradtional thinking (with pit stops in Big-L Liberalism) with a final section on what likely outcomes are.
This is exactly why I asked for recommendations. I'm try to build a deeper understanding of "how we got here" in order to have a stronger confidence in thinking about "where we are headed." It's important not to get too tied up in pure ideology - this was how Big-L liberals failed, how the neocons failed, and how the Progressive of today (Kamala) failed to even get off the launch pad*.
While the re-election of Trump has created a Right Wing honey moon period still very much in full swing, the Right in America / Britain is still very far from coalescing around a reality driven approach to the next 10,20,30 years. Right now, it's a coalition of angry populists (hardcore MAGA'ers), old Reagan style conservatives who have abandoned any idea of calm negotiation and co-existence with the Left, techno-libertarian bros (Thiel, Vance, etc.....frankly I think Yarvin is closer to this bucket that he wants to admit), and the centrist wanderers who have been so turned off by the really weird Left that they, for now, will happy vote against Blue Tribe. Oh, and then, of course, there's like 7-12 million younger men who feel utterly forgotten. This is a strange coalition to try to drive forward and, since 2016, it has been utterly dependent upon the person of Donald J. Trump. That lasts for 4 more years (Trump doesn't have the deep managerial ability nor the personality to existent as shadow emperor of the Republicans after the end of this term).
Sorry not sorry for the tangent. This is something I have a deep interest in. Again, thanks for the effortful response.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
25d ago
THIS IS A TANGENT POST
Humble request:
Something like this reading list for dissident right / post-liberalism. Think about "What would Oswald Spengler be reading today if he were still alive"
Thank you, Mottizens.
(Mods: This probably isn't the best place for this, but I don't know where else it would go? Maybe Sunday thread?)
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
26d ago
but part of that problem is that Americans are just so unhealthy
Couldn't agree more. If you strip away chronic maladies that are directly due to poor lifestyle choices, you get rid of 50% of medical spend annually right there. If you then also exclude last two years of life care, you're at something like 90% of medical spend annually. And these two things interact. Getting old sucks, but it shouldn't be particularly painful or burdensome - but it is because people are getting obese first, then developing metabolic syndrome, and then getting old. Modern medicine and ethics keeps them alive, albeit with drastically reduced quality of life, pretty much up until the whole body just gives out.
Eventually, social security, medicare, and medicaid are going to run out of money. And, as this thread discusses, we're playing with the idea of a fundamental medical care shortage a la the NHS in Britain. If we don't grow our way out of this / come up with some seriously amazing medical technology innovations, I have two predictions:
-
The cohabitation with an elderly parent will become ubiquitous in American society outside of the top 5%. For the top 5%, assisted living and retirement communities will become even more opulent and lavish then they are now. The wealthy elderly will become bizarrely hedonistic.
-
There will be a large scale campaign for legalization of assisted suicide. It's already happening as a movement in the USA and they're already doing it in Canada.
I hate both of these things, personally. But I still believe they will happen. Getting wealthy in the next 50 years will be as simple as staying healthy, getting and staying married, staying employed (at pretty much any wage level that isn't working poverty), and caring about your children and family. Individualism will claim at least a third of society, perhaps more.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
26d ago
Even with the current regulatory environment...
I am arguing in the exact opposite direction. I would write that sentence as "Because of the current regulatory environment..."
We over-regulated general aviation and so froze it in time. If we had more people flying more planes more often, GA safety would progress faster. This is exactly what happened with cars - seatbelts, cruple zones, airbags etc.
I definitely agree that if cars were to be magically re-introduced today, we would preemptively ban them. And this is safteyism run amok and horrible for human growth and development. It is sad that people die in car crashes, I wish that wouldn't happen. I am extremely grateful for automotive transport, commerce, and sport - it helps the species generate more wealth, interact more broadly, and deliver more individual freedom.
Imagine the kind of wealth, interaction, and individual freedom one could get in an affordable and easy to fly aircraft.
*proceeds to ignore the 1st/2nd largest population country on earth*
Bruh.
No one can afford to be imperialist in the coercive military sense anymore. Wars take far too long and are far too expensive, even for relatively small fronts (see: Ukraine). We're talking about Taiwan, which is a tiny island very very close to Mainland China. Even taking that would likely push the Chinese economy to the brink ... and they may still try.
What matters is who is at the "center" of the world order - economically, military, politically (in the power projection sense). USA is still number 1 in this but it's easy to identify the likely challengers; look at the places with the most people and largest economies contained within a totally self-governing polity. That's China. For a while in the 1990s-2000s, there was some speculation that the EU might create a new pan-Europa, but this was largely a feels based analysis and any intelligent observer saw that the political architecture of the EU and its member states created all sorts of horrible barriers to collective action that would be necessary to displace the Americans. But, I digress.
The Chinese aren't going to sail to Hawaii and San Diego to murder all of us counterrevolutionaries. But they, starting with Taiwan, can change the balance of power in East/Southeast asia .... an area with about 1/3rd of the global population and disproportionate importance in global shipping and trade ... and really disproportionate importance in the semiconductor industry.
"Letting China have Taiwan" doesn't result in the Taiwanese only having a no-good-very-bad-day, it results in the kind of trade war that can destabilize and, frankly, deflate (in all ways) the economic prosperity of the entire planet. The end state scenario of an ascendant China is a generation or two of global depression.
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