hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
A minor correction- data centers are 80/20 but republicans are much closer to evenly split.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Yeah, but the senate skews towards 'good at political game theory'.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
There were seven republicans who voted to convict Trump over J6. Obviously not all of them are still there, but getting another one or two- especially ones who aren't up for reelection in '28- shouldn't be impossible after that performance.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
The real reason republicans should let Trump get impeached is that it will make the bleeding in '28 slightly less bad. Vance is merely very unpopular and not pure poison to everyone.
hydroacetylene
9hr ago
Abbott's special sessions were called to accomplish ultra-partisan very controversial legislation and that's why there were so many of them- Texas law doesn't allow any old nonsense to be considered in a special session, only the issue they're called for.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
Yes, Texas legislators make phone calls to get constituents assistance with permitting etc all the time. But most Texans will have at least one republican representing them- either in the senate or the house.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
Texas legislators all have off season jobs and constituent services could be senators or reps- most businesses will have split representation.
Those are valley democrats representing the little Mexico parts of the state. There is a conservative democrat caucus in Texas but the majority of the party sits to the left of the national average.
The really interesting part of this arrangement is that, historically, the Texas house had been the less predictable chamber- but that's reversing today, the Lt Gov really is the head of the senate, and is on opposite sides from the chamber's majority.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
I think there's plenty of MAGA that was very unpopular- ICE and tariffs, for example.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
Technically its more complicated because the US is in an era of severe labor shortage and will be for a while, and the contemporary American lifestyle cannot continue without using AI to fill out at least some of that shortage, so it might be worth it even when companies aren't saving money.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
JD Vance is opposed to Trump now. And Ted Cruz is now the leader of the Texas GOP and needs to pick a candidate for governor in 2030(almost guaranteed to be a better year for republicans than this one), he's very interested in looking for responsible electable politicians(Texas fortunately has plenty; I'd expect at least Van Duyne to be in higher office within the next few cycles) because he needs to pick ones to run for the next rounds of statewide elections.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
Texas with Blue governance would be worse value than California or Illinois,
Texas does not have a blue trifecta, and won't have one until 2032 at the earliest.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
No, Abbott was a good governor with a knack for selling unpopular but necessary policies.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
The Handmaid's Tale is literally about Islam. Like actually literally it was written as a commentary on the Islamic revolution in Iran. The use of not-modern-west dress might have something to do with that.
There are modern Christian fundamentalist groups with very strict dress codes for women. I'm part of one, and our dress code doesn't look like that.
hydroacetylene
10hr ago
I mean El-Sayed won by less than five points in a year when democrats won mississippi and south carolina, unseated susan collins, and not just finally flipped texas but did so by double digits.
It doesn't seem like good evidence for 'what if the roles were reversed' not working.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
The Dixie-Yankee enmity dates back to the 1850's. California first started to develop a bad reputation in the rest of the country in the 2000's. The horrendous mismanagement and outmigration made everyone dislike them. But that's contingent on California driving out UMC types that raise the price for everyone with their ridiculous mismanagement. No one cares about the Deep South sucking because people who move from Louisiana don't bid prices up. But even normie economic illiterates blame outmigration from California for raising prices 'because they'll pay it, they're used to it, they come here and they buy two houses at a markup and think they got a great deal on both of them, then they rent one out too high, everyone's taxes go up, they don't even notice because they're used to it, and prices at restaurants are crazy because they think it's normal...'.
Raggedyanthem had a post about them just not fitting in. California hate is contingent on decades of poor management driving outmigration, among whom the easily hated nouveau riche are overrrepresented.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I fully expect her to lose to Beth Van Duyne in four years, sure, but democrats will not learn the lesson of 'things that win local elections also win statewide, but more moderate'.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Except that hinojosa's actual policies are braindead lunacy, and this is common with statewide democrat candidates in Texas(although local democrats are often not that bad).
hydroacetylene
1d ago
No, a regression analysis of fertility vs thé Republican base gives a white Republican TFR of about 2.2, regardless of how you input the numbers. There are no states above replacement because even the reddest states are not 100% R(and democrats in places like Oklahoma and Utah are disproportionately from very low fertility parts of their coalition, like LGBT).
hydroacetylene
1d ago
This conspiracy theory probably is true because the CPI linked pensions have every incentive to downplay inflation because they’ll run out of money soon.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Ok, as a non American- not a knock against you, you’re generally well informed but probably not up on the vibes- California is not the permanent hereditary enemy of Dixie. The permanent hereditary enemy of Dixie is the Yankees. Being from California hurt Harris in large part because of California’s high profile mismanagement. Not because of regional prejudice.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Greg Abbott still won whites by 20 points. Mathematically, those new voters are hispanic(there are not enough Indians in Texas for it to be them). But I’d dispute the characterization that those are new Texans- they’re new voters, sûre, but that’s not the same thing. The way too online DHS was probably high salience to these people in a way it isn’t more broadly.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Trans is actually very unpopular, and republicans have successfully won on being ‘against they/them’- although you are correct that the issue in general is low salience.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Alaska’s lower taxes dont result in lower consumer prices- this isn’t so much blue commitment to high gas prices as a genera commitment to higher taxes.
Hinojosa ran on, explicitly, California-fying Texas. Her two big policy proposals are bringing in teacher's unions and increasing permitting requirements.
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