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The_Nybbler

If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.

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joined 2022 September 04 21:42:16 UTC

				

User ID: 174

The_Nybbler

If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.

8 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 04 21:42:16 UTC

					

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User ID: 174

Yes, but he's a man -- that part isn't actually true.

Having to go meta and strategizing means that you are having trouble in the natural way.

There is no natural way. The Chads strategize too; they're just naturally good at it.

"Don't be the chump" is downstream of cheaters prospering.

If the non-partisan merit criterion is "draw as many district boundaries on municipal boundaries as possible, conditional on all districts having equal electorates to within 5%" then there may even be a knowable optimum answer, and in any case there is less wiggle-room than "draw compact districts with exactly equal census populations" because you can't tweak boundaries at census tract level.

There can be a knowable optimum answer under those conditions, but in much of the US such a map would "pack" Democrats, giving Republicans a significant advantage -- that's why I posted the Florida map, which does pretty much that.

It's zero-sum. If you maximize the representation of black voters, you minimize those of non-black voters. Maximizing the representation of black voters does not make the playing field level, it tilts it in their direction (and, in practice, towards the Democratic party). So you can't get a widespread belief that the playing field is level by doing that; instead, you get the (accurate) belief among the non-blacks that the playing field is skewed towards the blacks. In the recent past and in most analysis this sort of thing is discarded; only the feelings of the minorities count. But there's no good reason for that to be true.

Normie voters in some Democratic strongholds DO care about Israel-Palestine. They could lose my area of New Jersey if they lean too hard to the pro-Palestine side.

If that's going to happen, it will happen in the primary. And I wouldn't find it that surprising in the primary.

How would men appreciate it if women started discussing frankly "Look, you'll be 35 in two years. That's way too old if I'm thinking of having kids with good prospects. You better set your sights lower, some 40+ woman done with childbearing will probably take you if you smarten up, get rid of those awful clothes, and hit the gym"

If it were true (which it is generally not), it would be rather refreshing to men who are constantly having to try to figure out the truth behind the lies they get all the time. Having two things he knows are significant and he can do something about (awful clothes and out of shape) would probably leave him overjoyed.

Perhaps nice compact districts like this.

Anyway, we lack angels in the form of neutral experts to redistrict us.

LBJ was notoriously foul-mouthed, and definitely would have used the n-word. But as with Trump, it's easy to make up a plausible "LBJ-sounding" quote.

That doesn't answer the question of why Southern black voters are so strongly aligned with the Democratic Party. Or why Southern white voters are so strongly aligned with the Republican Party

Both are explained by Democratic policy preferences being to favor blacks and disfavor whites.

Jews and Muslims are not that far off. The same way, which has been presenting a dilemma for the Democrats... which they seem to be resolving in favor of Muslims.

In one of the more anticipated decisions of this term, the Supreme Court (6-3 on ideological lines) has struck down the second Louisiana majority-black district. They did not rule categorically that race may not be used as a factor in redistricting decisions, but they did rule that if a redistricting decision could be explained by a partisan gerrymander rather than a racial one, there was no case.

To satisfy the second and third preconditions—politically cohesive voting by the minority and racial-bloc voting by the majority—the plaintiffs must provide an analysis that controls for party affiliation, showing that voters engage in racial-bloc voting that cannot be explained by partisan affiliation.

In practice, if taken seriously by lower courts, this pretty much destroys nearly all Section 2 Voting Rights Act cases, because of the strong affiliation between blacks and the Democratic Party.

Then there's bikes with "electronic" (electromechanical) shifting but no non-human motive power. I'm waiting for the day some anti-bike cop busts someone for an e-bike violation over this, and the court (being a "the cop is always right" traffic court) accepts it.

deep six

Huh, I thought that had to do with water (by the deep six -- quite a bit deeper than by the mark, twain), not graves, but Wiktionary credits both.

Fifty years ago they were led by a pragmatic dictatorship. One possibility is the bulk of the people are the fanatics -- this would fit with what happens in Sunni states, where the rulers are always having to deal with challenges from the populist Islamic fanatics -- and the revolution was a truly popular one. This is what I suspect. Another is they are now led by a minority Islamist fanatic dictatorship (which does have those beliefs and always did) and it doesn't matter what the bulk of the people think.

The US under Trump and Biden have been willing to legitimize Sunni terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and the Taliban, who now run Syria and Afghanistan (again).

And the Taliban never would have spent 20 years in the wilderness (or Pakistan, anyway) if they hadn't chosen to antagonize the United States (when it was at its least tolerant) in the first place. The terrorist-to-statesman pipeline is an old and honorable one, achieved mostly through winning, as Paul Revere, Samuel Chase, and John Hancock could tell you.

If Iran had settled down into being an ordinary dictatorship after the revolution, they'd probably have relations with the US no worse than e.g. Vietnam does today. I don't know why they chose to stick with the whole "Death to America, Death to Israel" thing -- my guess would be their religious fanaticism is absolutely genuine -- but that's what led to today's situation.

"Rich people are morally obliged to contribute to society in ways which reflect the level and type of resources they control" is a social norm

It is, but there's no continuous tradition going back to Athens or Rome. There have been plenty of times in between that the rich did no such thing and no one expected them to. Feudalism isn't similar; the people funding the expensive military equipment were not merely rich but rulers. Carnegie ruled nothing and had no patent of nobility; an obligation implied by wealth is not the same as noblesse oblige, even if the latter inspired the former.

The explicit and public rejection of the underlying norm by the Tech Right, with Musk saying that rich people should continue to invest their wealth in for-profit businesses and calling out Bill Gates for letting the side down by donating it, is historically unusual, and the rest of America co-ordinating to punish them would be historically normal.

Thing is, people tend to like the results of Musk's for-profit businesses, while not liking Gates's. (And Bezos's business is liked even more, though I don't think Bezos has made the same rejection)

Perhaps historically true, but in modern times it is horribly false.

It's still true that the Kennedy kid will get off scot free. It's just that there are three relevant classes, not two -- the underclass, which is typically lightly policed and lightly punished, unless they commit a crime against the top class. The massive middle, who are controlled largely by the fact that even a minor conviction can severely limit them (e.g. by denying them professional licenses or certain careers; if you've ever been busted for shoplifting you can never work for a financial institution, for instance, and if you've ever had a DUI conviction most jobs involving driving are off limits) and a major one tosses them into prison and permanently into the underclass, for which they are not prepared and will probably suicide or die of misadventure shortly after. And the top, who can escape consequences with a word to a prosecutor or a judge, except if they lose some power game with others on top quite badly -- though they may even survive that, like Martha Stewart.

Hiring a cleaning lady once or twice a week is hiring a contractor, either under the table (cheap, illegal, but negligible chance of punishment) or through some agency which handles the formalities (expensive and legal). That's different than having a servant or servants who only work for you.

Heritage Foundation, not Trump. Any Republican would have done this.

No, not a chance.

Ruled unconstitutional (by 2 of his own 3 justices lol).

He just did them another way.

And Dexter Taylor is now in a maximum security prison where he will likely die, unable to appeal. Because that's how much the Second Amendment is worth in the US.

Ask USAID. Ask the Ayatollah Khameni (either one). Immigration changes actually did happen. So did tariffs. So did a rooting out of DEI in government; it wasn't complete but it happened.

The UHC CEO is a role, but Donald Trump is not. Most presidents probably aren't, and Donald Trump definitely isn't.

Making life socially tougher only removes the bottom quintile if you define it tautologically. You'll remove those who are least socially adept within every stratum, not the least adept overall.