The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
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User ID: 174
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2hr ago
Engineering or pre-law?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2hr ago
It's intermittent at least since the Reagan administration -- and corresponds to whether the President has a (D) or an (R) after his name.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2hr ago
"Watching the feet" tells me there's going to be a major escalation in the near future -- I actually suspect it's been delayed by the problems with the Ford. I expect an invasion of the strait islands (everyone talks about Kharg, but Kharg is useless without the strait and un-needed with it, so if Iran has actually reinforced it as they claim, I would guess they just get more bombing) and maybe the coastline near Bandar Abbas. If this succeeds the US will (after doing minesweeping and patrolling the coast for hidden marine drones and such) declare the strait open, and the next move will belong to the P&I cartel.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
2hr ago
Investments in alternate routes make sense, but even without them, defecting back (closing Hormuz and Iranian ports to the rest of the traffic) seems easy enough and a viable response.
Except that Iran could then respond by destroying most of the oil infrastructure of the GCC. This is MAD, of course, but MAD doesn't work against an actually-fanatic opponent.
But maybe it does seem like the entire conflict was poorly-thought-out.
Maybe. Won't know until it concludes.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
Imagine the outcomes that an educated, civic-minded intellectual powerhouse could create in their home country if they were properly educated and pushed towards making an effective difference.
Imagine a Haitian Elon Musk returning to Haiti.
Oh, right, he gets set on fire.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
Those "effective changes to their place of origin" aren't limited by money or (usually) even talent. They're limited because those in power at the place of origin are actively preventing them from happening.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
The Iraq war definitely harmed the relationship, but the Obama administration did a lot to salvage it.
No, Obama being elected and having that all-important (D) after his name did a lot to salvage it. Obama bombed the shit out of brown people with the best of them.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
The US needs to re-open the strait for several reasons.
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Having Iran in control makes a case for Iran having won.
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The US's Gulf allies need the strait open. Saudi Arabia can redirect most, but not all of its oil elsewhere, but Kuwait cannot.
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Iran tolling the strait helps Iran rebuild its weapons programs, which means the job isn't done.
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Sustained high oil prices will hurt Trump domestically, despite the US being a net exporter; there's a lot more gasoline buyers than oil company workers.
The hypothesis that the US would destroy the Iranian regime but leave the strait closed or tolled doesn't make sense. Either the new Iranian regime would have to keep the strait closed by force (in which case it's the enemy), or Oman (in coalition with the rest of the GCC, probably) and the new Iranian regime and the US would have to agree to do so in violation of long-standing treaties, which seems unlikely. That would throw freedom of navigation worldwide into utter chaos, which the US has long considered against its interests.
There's one way of threading the needle, which is that the US beats back the Iranian regime but they can still fire a few missiles or drones from a distance (which can be shot down with high probability). In that case the P&I cartel might decide to continue their effective blockade, at which point the US can probably spin up and certify a new insurer, effectively collecting the same "toll" the P&I clubs used to. This would require utter stupidity on the part of the cartel, but given what Europe has been doing lately, it's not impossible.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
18hr ago
Well, except "Ireland" and "Aryan".
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
18hr ago
Neither "Ireland" nor "aristocrat" has the same root as "Aryan" or "Iran".
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
I suppose if we ignore not just Trump I, but also Bush II, Reagan, Nixon, and of course Eisenhower over the whole Suez Crisis.
Hmm, I sense a commonality between those Presidents.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
The big difference is the lack of buildup. There was no effort to sell the war to the public or to the international community.
There was no way Donald Trump could do so. The "public" (meaning the mainstream media) and the "international community" (meaning Euro liberals) could not be convinced by Donald Trump. So he quite rationally did not waste any effort on this unachievable goal. He does seem to have brought the Gulf states into the fold (with the help of a feckless IRGC, granted).
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
SCOTUS remanded this case. I expect to see it back in the high court in a couple of years, after the district court finds that Colorado has a compelling state interest in protecting gay children from deconversion or something.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
Every ethnicity in Iran is light skinned, and the dominant one has an extremely long history of civilization.
The name "Iran" is derived from the same root as "Aryan".
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
When I hear "unserious country" nowadays it's usually someone on the right talking about the U.K. or Germany.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
21hr ago
Isn't there some conservative college, who's name escapes me, that makes a point of not accepting any federal help so they aren't on the hook for Title IX, and all the other federal fuckery, and the Dems are still always looking for ways to force them to run it their way?
There was, Bob Jones University. They lost not just Federal funds but their tax-exempt status, and then knelt at the altar of equality.
Meanwhile, the University of California and others have explicit political tests for their faculty (in some cases also being fig-leaves for RACIAL tests), and that's fine. It's all who/whom and all very tiresome, and if Trump refuses to let them continue doing that he's not breaking any precedent except in aiming that power at the left for a change.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
22hr ago
The Poland thing seems to be fake news. The US made a general request to all the allies for Patriot batteries, and Poland said no -- but Poland only HAS the two, so this was probably expected.
As for the Euros, they probably think the US will give up with Iran in control of the strait and are trying to position themselves to be able to suck up to Iran for oil.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
23hr ago
A quagmire where we set up a long-term occupation force only to reluctantly surrender 20 years later?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
23hr ago
I prefer "jumped up matrix multipliers" myself.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
It doesn't follow logically any more than yours does. It's an observation -- those who suppress racial IQ are pushing for some sort of preferential treatment for a favored racial group.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
By the same token, anyone who tries to prevent mention of racial IQ is going to be a terrible person who uses the implicit assumption that racial IQs are equal to promote disparate treatment by race.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Your suggestion is US surrender, and it won't happen until January 2027 at the earliest, when the Democratic Congress can force Trump to give up.
In the meantime, it is more likely that any one of the following occurs
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The US takes the islands in the strait and some of the Iranian coastline, and forces the strait open. This could start as early was Friday evening EST
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The US and Israel kill enough IRGC leaders that Second Lieutenant Amir Rezei, highest ranking surviving IRGC leader, is not so fanatic as to be willing to make a deal to survive
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The Iranians, if they are indeed winning as much as you say, manage to put a nuke together and fire it.
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The Paper Lion (Crown Prince) leads an army of diasporans in and takes the place. (OK, maybe this is only exactly as likely as an unforced Trump surrender. Neither one is happening)
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
I worked at Google, and the answer is no.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
No, updating on argument is completely fallacious. This is basically "But isn't it evidence that they're horrible that I could have believed <BAD THING> about them?" And the answer is no.
There's no gain to taking it. If we want to stop Iranian oil we can do a blockade of Iran and stop the (defenseless) tankers in the Gulf of Oman with much less trouble. If we don't want to stop Iranian oil, we don't need to take Kharg. It's important to Iran, but it's not vital long-term; they could build other export facilities. Anyway, the regime obviously isn't interested in bargaining.
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