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No_one


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 08 22:22:12 UTC

Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.

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User ID: 1042

No_one


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 8 users   joined 2022 September 08 22:22:12 UTC

					

Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.


					

User ID: 1042

Verified Email

10+ arrested after a rifle ambush of security at Prairieland Detention Center near Alvarado, TX on 4th july.

Shortly before 2300, some of the arrested fired fireworks at center to draw out a response, when it arrived at least two of them started shooting at the responding officers from a distance of 100-150m. Soon after, a driver (trans, seems the only one) with a van that had 2 ARs was stopped by a responding cop (map & times)

The shooters fired about 30 shots at responding cops, hitting one in the neck, suffered a jam, probably faced return fire and then started running. Shortly after cops arrested 9 of them in a field 300 m away, armed and in body armor in addition the driver in the van. At least one got away. $25k reward.

Total equipment recovered so far on the spot: 4 AR rifles, pistols, 12 sets of body armor and several helmets.

NYT article: https://archive.is/CBvms Unusually big ambush, usually it's just one guy.

Here's a twitter thread with more details. Can't vouch for the veracity of it. It seems logical - we've been hearing for years how antifa can organise and has people. These people look too clean though, antifa protesters usually look much scruffier.

This looks very.. amateurish. Sure there was a plan but it seems they underestimated the difficulty of hitting anything at night. Or just chickened out.

Around here (Slovakia), I'm not sure if @georgioz will back me up on this, putting children into daycare before age 4 is seen as wrong and harming the child, as the child needs stability and security, not be taken care of by strangers.

Communists briefly promoted it but it later came to be seen as unwholesome and wrong. I have a relative who was put into daycare from age.. 1.5 I think, or maybe 2 years and it seems she (and rest of family) think it was not a good idea.

It's almost certain this 'stunt' was engineered by Nikita Bier and probably approved by Elon.

nikita bier, known for making apps go viral, joins x as head of product the next week, grok declares itself "mecha hitler" media from across the world reports on it

you've all been played. as usual

In a bit of unambiguously 21st century news, some tweaks to Grok, xAI's chatbot have had it do particularly interesting things today including

This may make minor news because Musk is in trouble, on the other hand all the people who really, really hate him have their pants on fire like Europeans, von der Leyen is getting impeached, they're actually scared of Russia / China so it might just blow over, the grid is getting worse and is going to keep getting worse due to Green energy mandates.

I'm even suspecting Musk deliberately told them to relax the guardrails for some reason. Probably .. publicity?


Update: site addresses the issues

We are aware of recent posts made by Grok and are actively working to remove the inappropriate posts. Since being made aware of the content, xAI has taken action to ban hate speech before Grok posts on X. xAI is training only truth-seeking and thanks to the millions of users on X, we are able to quickly identify and update the model where training could be improved.

EDIT2

apparently this prompt change may be the culprit


EDIT3

Stancil went on local TV news to complain about the ERP grok made. (video included)

EDIT4:

There's quite reasonable suspicion this 'malfunction' was engineered by Nikita Bier

The OP is the kind of person who is surprised when "Boaty McBoatface" wins the online naming poll.

I'm still amused you take my succinct summary as evidence I'm surprised by any of it.

That makes sense. Yeah, I think so. I read a fair about Epstein even before his second arrest and untimely death. He seemed to be into 15-18 yr girls but was hiring adult girls too and there may have been some 14 year old. I don't recall coming across any suggestion of actual pedophilia.

If he's the kind of risk-taking ambitious guy and he's into teenagers, it'd make sense he'd be creeping on them.

by threatening to reveal their daughter was no longer a virgin

This still seems very odd because come on.. 1980s New York? That'd make sense in I don't know..some very traditional place, not NYC in 80s.

If they had to resort to dropping expensive glide bombs instead of waltzing in and bombing with impunity using just bombsights, that means the airspace was contested. It's the same thing that goes on in Ukraine- except there even lofting the glide bombs happens at low altitude.

In the end, Houthis shot down.. at least 20 reaper drones since start of 24.

Now you can't shoot a reaper drone (service ceiling 15400, about 50 000 feet) down with a man-portable missile, even the smallest, newest missiles with performance high enough weigh about 200 lbs. This isn't stuff you can easily hide, possibly these were launched from heavy trucks and not just SUVs.

What does it exactly say about US Navy's SEAD capabilities, especially when we hear talk about them possibly being involved in a fight against China, if a proxy of a decidedly second rate power denied them ability to control airspace for over a year.

..what?

Source?

We know from the Israeli defector ben Menashe that Maxwell was working for Mossad ..that was corroborated when (iirc) Mossad guys carried his coffin and so on. Not a stretch that his favorite daughter was also involved.

And as to what Epstein did.. Whether there is a list or not is irrelevant, we know he was recording blackmail material. I strongly doubt he was e.g. into porn of Alan Dershowitz and people like that. And I can't believe intelligence services ,even if they didn't create him, would have allowed someone like that to operate an influence operation without wetting their beaks. No way, absolutely no way.

Wan 2.1 What's that?

Will have to look it up.

Um, no. People are already working on stripped down 'reasoner' AIs with limited knowledge but great reasoning ability and ways of plugging in extra databases.

That's deemed to be the most promising area of research at least what my superficial following of Ilforte's twitter makes me think. The hope is, within say 10 years you'll be able to run a fairly smart mind on a big graphics card. Researchers believe even a 2-3 billion parameter model with the right architecture could be good at thinking. The models right now, especially the big ones were often giant bags of heuristics, at least before reasoner models entered the scene.

I don't buy the collision story alternate theory bc I saw it discussed by sailors. It was just a crash. US warships crash into merchant shipping with some regularity - whether it's more or less often than other navies I don't know.

The fighter that fell off board story stinks a little. There's no conceivable reason why a carrier would be taking evasive action short of torpedoes in the water, which the Houthis don't have. From the POV of a missile the carrier is essentially stationary, whatever direction it moves is irrelevant.

So saying "oh fighter fell off bc evasive maneuver" smells like BS.

Likewise, if I imagine a general being killed by Russian ballistic missiles, in most cases the body will not be in a state where you can put him in his quarters and pretend it was a natural death.

Not really. If there's fragmentation or overpressure damage and the guy is promptly stuck into a fridge..which is usually possible in UA cities, the body would look superficially fine. A keen eyed medic could spot it but you can always swear some guy to secrecy and just fix it, no? Isn't there a regulation allowing something like that. Bystanders would see a corpse being removed.

Doesn't really make sense why a general would be there tho. Pretty sure only tech specialists who really have to be there and rarely special forces go there.

Germany isn't Texas, and there are insufficient peaker or baseload plants to cover expected and common dark & cold weeks..

Mostly solid points, I should have left that out or written it better.

In any case things are going off the rails everywhere in the American sphere of influence.

Baltics have been recognized as indefensible for a long time, unless NATO in Europe reforms and starts rearming right now, they're going to be basically helpless once Americans withdraw forces to Pacific or get too broke to maintain their presence in Europe.

We know Americans had issues establishing air superiority over Yemen. Any war around Baltics would have Russians strike airfields and cover their own forces with AAA so air power wouldn't have much effect.

Russians have vast amount of drones, tactical missiles and counter drone systems. Unless NATO prepositioned its entire force in the Baltics, the tripwire forces there would get overrun in a week.

Are German or French soldiers even going to have enough ammo to attempt to retake the area?

but stories of the grid failing are exaggerated.

I implied there's going to be ever less stability going forward because of ever fewer big generators coupled to big steam turbines.

No one wants to invest in an industry that's supposed to disappear by 2040. Coal plants are closing, gas peaker plants are not getting built at the expected pace.

Oh.Thx. I think I have seen references to it.

I wonder where all the furries were in 1980s-1990s.

...nonsense generators? Have you ever used e.g. Gemini or Deepseek? Both are free. Okay both can be very naive at times, and both are kind of soy with default prompts. Deepseek, however, with a bit of prompting can be completely insane yet rational and easily smarter than most people you see if you go to any place outside of a professional context.

If you want to really see what they can do, install some client for LLMs and hook yourself up with some of the better free models over at https://openrouter.ai/models

(there's a 50 query daily limit if you have <10$ in your account, not sure if there's a better service. )

I haven't seen Gemini do it much.

Mostly what strikes me is stunning naivete in places, basically repeats whatever official sources say without reflection. But that's to be expected.

I mean, possibly..

https://old.reddit.com/r/navy/comments/1ka8nsu/updated_information_about_todays_hornet_loss/

In any case you'd expect the missile to be detected 300-500 km out. It turns out Houthis do have anti-ship ballistic missiles with ~500 km range, and there if you knew the missile flies straight after boost phase and you were aware the seeker has a limited detection area theoretically hard evading would have a point.

Other suggestions were this was a cruise missile and they turned hard to bring an extra CIWS unit into a position to intercept.

Carriers are huge and change directions very slowly.

Seems it can make a 90° turn under 30 seconds, but acceleration is likely sluggish so evading anything but torpedoes seems... questionable. Anyway, carriers can tilt up to what looks like 15° during tight turns... I guess the planes /decks / towing equipment aren't designed to not slide when at maximum tilt.

https://old.reddit.com/r/navy/comments/1ka8nsu/updated_information_about_todays_hornet_loss/mpkdmng/

Depending on how thorough he was, it's likely he had a list of all the people he had dirt on and which also specified what dirt he had on them. But at the very least if he was a little organized he had a list of people he taped having sex etc.

How did the whole thing work? I recall hearing about people whom he invited to his properties and who accepted it bc famous guy/free vacation/there'll be interesting people there and who didn't join in on the 'fun'.

Then I imagine there were people who would come specifically for the 'fun'. Maybe he had a list of people who liked his illicit entertainment and all the provided favors and sought him out? He'd probably have the most material on those guys.

Something like that could be the 'client list' I guess..

OP wishes you to know that he knows LLMs will write whatever if allowed to do so and this whole thing was neonazis ( they started the Stancil trolling) figuring out that if you contaminate grok's context enough it's going to say silly crap.

It's come to my attention that in addition to the F-117 everyone acknowledges that they had shot down, Serbian military records list a shoot-down of a B-2 , which crashed in Croatia, using a similar method - booting up the radar extremely briefly during a NATO bombing mission. Saw loads of targets - one of them was ~ 15km away, looked very peculiar. Fired two S-125 missiles at it. The plane immediately started evading but was damaged by either or both 60 kg blasts, and then crashed just outside of Serbia, in Spačva basin.

Here's the fairly pretty interesting in-depth account on how it supposedly went down. It opens up with claiming that after may 20, 1999, all B-2 bombing missions of Serbia ceased, that the Spirit of Missouri was withdrawn from combat operations on May 20 and also presents a possibly verifiable claim that a section of near border woods in Croatia had an unusually heavy military presence.

At the end is they also present a Serbian hypothesis that the 2008 crash of B-2 in Guam was staged by crashing a remote-controlled B-2 test article that was secretly assembled at Guam, crashed via stall at takeoff and then passed off as the plane lost in '99.

Found this interesting bit of information on Quora, from a Serbian.

The story regarding B2 is very strange also. Supposedly it was shot down, but went down just near the border in Croatia near Spačvanske šume (forest). I recently watched colonel Zoltan Dani (commanded the battery that shot down F-117), during his interview about the downing mention, and later on in the show explain how he came to be convinced that a B-2 was shot down.

Basically, to cut this short, there were reports, in the military, that a B-2 was shot down (by a brigade that he was assigned to, but not his battery) but he didn't believe them. He later heard the stories from some villagers that live near the border with Croatia that something big had passed over their village and was making strange sounds like it's engines weren't working properly. Later on, on a funeral that he attended (this was after the bombing), some people were present (Croats) who live in Croatia and were working for police department said that at that time they were assigned to a guard duty, so no one could get close, near this forest. They weren't told what they were guarding but they said that a lot of military (American) transport trucks went in an out. They said that even the ground was dug out, as they said, to a depth of 1,5m. This B-2 was, again supposedly, Spirit of Missouri.

/images/1751914589569709.webp


EDIT: interesting info on in New York Times from 1991.. Full article.. I was previously unaware B-2 was ever found insufficiently stealthy in tests.

Iran has everything to lose and nothing to gain by declaring nuclear capability.

Reaction to this top-level post on Iranian nukes.

Iran's assumption seems to have been that by permanently remaining n steps away from having nukes (n varying according to the current political and diplomatic climate), you get all the benefits of being a nuclear-armed state without the blowback of going straight for them. But no, you need to have the actual weapons in your arsenal, ready to use at a moment's notice.

It's very possible Iran ALREADY has the weapons in their arsenal.

But the weapons are militarily and strategically useless for Iran in this particular situation.
Because every current adversary already has nuclear weapons, and more of them, and could retaliate forcefully.

Why they probably have them:

Between how much time they've had to develop them, and that the half-ton of 60% HEU could have be easily boosted to weapons grade by removing the third of lighter uranium atoms from it (it'd only take days), it's nonsensical to believe Iranians do not already have nuclear weapons or couldn't have them. Making an detonating an implosion uranium bomb is something the Chinese managed in 1963 or so. Today, with supercomputers and more mature nuclear physics knowledge out there, it's not hard at all.

The 15 bombs Iran could have if we take IAEA at their word, which if used, would result in destruction of Tehran and other major cities, could kill perhaps 300-500k Israelis. It'd not destroy the country, cause it to be overrun etc.

Iranians know that if they nuked an Israeli air-base, Israelis who have more bombs would H-bomb all of their major military sites and production facilities. They're probably working on hydrogen bombs, but have not conducted a test yet. So, there are no useful targets for these bombs at all. There's no reason to say you have something you cannot even use.

Israelis do not have the resources for a sustained campaign, so why strike them? They were going to give up their campaign sooner or later.

So, in conclusion:

Obviously, even if they had the bombs, they'd keep them secret, locked up in a bunker and work on producing hydrogen bombs and ICBMs and enough of a tunnel network to guarantee survival of a second strike capability.

Announcing that they have the bombs would

  • feed Israeli narrative
  • not actually provide them with the required capability to deter anyone
  • cause normies in Israel/West to demand an actual end to Iranian nuclear program

the only upside would be boosting national pride.

40,000 people and mostly young men, the feistiest demographic. They'd be dying from random young male crap (suicide, drinking, beefs)even if the leadership were perfect

Add to that not great leadership focused on the wrong things

The claimed there was a hit but the plane was only damaged, lost power or control (e.g. hydraulics leaking after hits) and then fell into Croatia. You know, the country with which they've fought a brutal war 7 years earlier.

If you're young this may seem a little odd -why would a guided missile miss... but the missile was cutting edge 1960s technology, employing 60 kilograms of high explosive to offset accuracy issues inherent in high powered but still analog command guidance over distances of up to ~40 km. It doesn't have a computer or radar seeker or anything, it's guided by commands from the user, like a huge and particularly malevolent RC toy.

We know from the reports (e.g. the other F-117 damaged and limping back to base) that the 1960s missiles, which were designed to be used against high flying and large enemy bombers were obviously not hitting stealth planes dead on and the first missile that shot down the F-117 even failed to fuse. There'd have been nothing left from an F-117 or any other plane after a close hit,

If two stealth planes were hit in the war, with one destroyed, the odds of another, much larger stealth plane getting damaged by fragments seem fairly good. Stealth planes inherently have worse flight characteristics and B-2 is a much larger, long range plane which, especially if loaded, cannot evade as well as the other war planes used against Serbia at close range back then.