AnarchyDice
1d ago
I think that Tesla is being more than a bit optimistic on just how much ramping up can be done and how cheap it would be at scale, but even they list 10% of 2023 GDP (i.e. the output of 1 in every 10 working adults from 2023 devoted to just batteries for an entire year). For comparison, 10% of US working adults, roughly, work in all manufacturing combined.
One item to note about the waste heat figure, is that it is calculated based on the energy contained within the fossil fuel molecules that is ultimately expended as heat instead of being converted to electricity. This is setting the denominator based on fuel pulled from the ground, not as an efficiency metric of how much electricity is lost. The fair comparison for renewables would be the amount of wind/sun/hydro potential energy not converted to electricity after engaging with the PV module, wind turbine, or hydro turbine. I design solar systems as part of my job and even I think that is a dubious way to promote the technology.
That also means there is not a can of efficiency to be opened up once switching to renewables, we still need the same number of watt-hours to power cars, grids, equipment, etc. There are marginal gains to be had in some cases, sure, but if we were to wave a magic wand and eliminate that waste heat from fossil fuels, all that would mean is our fuels would last two to three times longer. Eliminating production based waste heat would not change the throughput of the systems because those are limited by quantity of plants, turbine design, transmission lines, and ultimately end-user needs.
AnarchyDice
2d ago
The problem with grid battery storage is one of scale. Yes, we might be producing 8TWh of batteries across the world, but global energy usage is north of 20,000 TWh each hour. If you want a reasonable ride-through of a mere 90 minutes, you would need 30,000 TWh of storage assuming no added losses. That would be over 3,000 years of production going just to grid level storage. Sure, that production will ramp up, but so does energy consumption.
I say a mere 90 minutes of ride-through but that 90 minutes won't happen all at once, it has to account for the cumulative minutes where production dips below consumption, at least until you can spin up another turbine.
The other point against batteries is that they are still very expensive compared to just about any other option. Projects I have been on considering battery energy storage systems (BESS) typically looked at a BESS then declined based on cost. They instead look to add more solar, local UPS systems, or other mitigation strategies against power losses. The only projects that have done it have either been mandated to (think airports or other government critical infrastructure) or have been heavily subsidized to (critical data centers, solar farms).
The use case of grid level storage batteries does have a great use-case though, but not generally for storage. They are great as the article you linked pointed out for smoothing out voltage/current/frequency. Those dips in power characteristics can put serious dents in their ability to provide power and especially at a level of quality their customers expect. Before cheaper batteries, this was done with specialized clusters of capacitors using complex electrical equipment and/or accepting bigger tolerances of fluctuation.
Overall, battery prices still have a long way to come down before we will see meaningful levels of grid energy storage as grid level energy storage. California for example is still only at about 1/3 of their goal of ~55,000MWh which is about 90 minutes of their roughly 35,000MWh hourly consumption. I am optimistic that battery prices will continue to fall and we will see market adoption of them as they do.
AnarchyDice
2mo ago
I'll give them a look to see if I'm interested, thanks!
AnarchyDice
2mo ago
I passed the N3! While I probably won't take a higher level test, I will be continuing to build up towards full fluency. Anyone else get their results back? Any suggestions for new anime to watch, podcasts/books to listen to, web-serials to read, or japanese shows to watch?
Also, I finished the first part of an overhaul project porting my personal DMing tool from Netbeans to Excel. The main driver was how clunky the java was but I also lost the central file and only had the executable. Rewriting it in netbeans wasn't going to happen and if I was doing it from the ground up, I wanted something easy to edit and use on other devices. Lots of interesting math and structure, but the basic foundation is using Excel to pull random magical items, groups of magical items, and treasures based on a central, fixed seed. Since I wrote the original, I've changed how I DM in some major ways so I've been meaning to update it for years. Next steps are to add back in the random encounters, rooms, and other things back in. https://anarchydice.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/random-item-generator/
Update on the liqueurs: https://www.themotte.org/post/1259/tinker-tuesday-for-november-19-2024/271334?context=8#context Those walnut and pecan liqueurs? They aged really nicely and mellowed into a delicious, well-rounded, nuttiness. Definitely moved up the list to be right around the brown-sugar oatmeal.
AnarchyDice
5mo ago
Depending on the mechanic of restarts and progression, couldn't you just allow the player to revisit conversation branches or ask follow up questions to hear the conversations they previously missed? I'm thinking of a morrowind-like system of conversation where once an NPC had mentioned something you unlocked it as a dialogue option to ask about later.
If the conversations have more permanent consequences, I wouldn't worry too much about branches being missed or made unreachable. Any kind of progression also has areas of content that you miss out on once you make a permanent choice, and lore/conversations are no different. People who want all the lore will have to replay just like people who want to try out different builds or classes.
AnarchyDice
7mo ago
Thanks for the formatting fix! The nice thing about infusing is that once you've got some larger jars and good strainers, you can infuse just about anything.
Brown Sugar Oatmeal Vodka
In a 1 Gallon glass jar, add:
6c dry oats (rolled/steel cut doesn't matter), 2c brown sugar, 11c vodka(I use Costco. Any flavorless vodka will do), 2 tps cinnamon.
Let it infuse for a 7-10 days. Invert and shake every day or so to mix it.
Filter. I start with a colander to remove the oats, and pour it into a tall bottle to rest.
After a day or so, the sediment falls to the bottom.
Then carefully pour it through ultra-fine nylon mesh strainers and a funnel into bottles. Go too fast or shake the bottle and the sediment will wake up and clog your mesh. You can push your luck by pouring the dregs through the strainer, but that will net you maybe an extra shot of cloudy liqueur.
You can repeat the process for a clearer liqueur, but I typically do only one or two passes because I like a bit of cloudiness.
Enjoy it straight or over ice.
Maple Bacon Bourbon
In a 1 Gallon glass jar, add:
1 handle of your preferred bourbon
Make 1lb of bacon. Enjoy the bacon. Retain the grease. (We bake it in the oven on foil lined sheets at 400F, but I think pan fried could work too. Maybe 1/2C of grease?)
Add the slightly cooled but still liquid grease to the bourbon. Don't put the bacon in, it is a mess and the grease does a better job imparting flavor.
Add 1/4C of maple syrup to taste.
Stir.
Let it sit for a couple days, mixing occasionally. Then put it in the freezer overnight.
Once frozen, the grease should form a sheet at the top that you remove and throw away.
Filter the liquid through ultra-fine mesh strainers and funnel into bottles. This catches any remaining bacon bits or frozen fat shards.
Enjoy it straight, over ice, or as part of your preferred bourbon delivery method.
I will note that straining can take a bit of time, so I often have two sets of strainers and funnels filtering into two bottles so I can keep topping them off as they drain. If they slow down too much, dump it back into the infusing jar, rinse off the strainer, and keep going. This is especially true of sediment heavy infusions like the oatmeal.
Yes, although these days I am mostly infusing. I tried my hand at brewing with the beer kits and while the beer was decent, the process of doing it wasn't for me. Too much chemistry and precision. I tend to cook (and craft) like an engineer, so I want things that I can tweak on the fly with ratios I can eyeball.
When it comes to infusing though, I have quite a few recipes I've been perfecting. I used to do Umeshu, but my supplier stopped selling ume and I can't find any others for a reasonable price that will ship to the midwest. Here is what I've infused in order from best to worst:
Umeshu
Roasted pineapple-cinamon tequila
Cranberry vodka
Blueberry vodka
Brown sugar oatmeal vodka
Maple bacon bourbon
Limoncello
Rhubarb vodka
Pompelmocello (limoncello but grapefruit)
Roasted walnut/roasted pecan vodka/bourbon
Jalapeno tequila: homegrown jalapenos were too spicy
Peach vodka
Pineapple vodka (if you know how much I dislike peaches, these being ranked lower says a lot)
Granny smith vodka
Roasted/unroasted murasaki imo (purple sweet potato) vodka/bourbon: absolutely vile, despite trying some different ratios
Got started late on the cranberry this year, so I'm currently waiting on a batch to see if 2 weeks is enough instead of my usual 4.
Edited to fix the formatting.
AnarchyDice
8mo ago
Something to keep in mind for that impulse against being setup or referred. You chose to associate and build relationships with the people that set you up or referred you.
Secondarily, do you ever recommend, encourage, and create opportunities for others? Do you do it because those recipients are lesser? Take the longer view that they are creating opportunities for you as well.
All except the worst sinecures still require the recipient to perform after they get the foot in the door. They still have to convince the blind date for another, still have to make friends under their own power at a meetup, and still meet performance quotas at a job.
AnarchyDice
9mo ago
Have you tried making your own paste? I take a basket of tomatoes, cut off bad parts, quarter, squeeze out the seeds, and place on a baking sheet with a bit of olive oil. I roast them at 350 until they start browning a bit. Then I run them through a grinder with strainer attachment to get rid of the skin.
The strained pulp is poured back on the baking sheet and roasted at 350 until it thickens down to your desired thickness. I stir occasionally and push it together as it thins to minimize the amount burned at the edges. Let it cool, and scoop in tablespoon sized hemispheres on a parchment paper lined tray. Freeze. When solid, you can pop them into a freezer bag for instant use at any time in helpful tablespoon portions.
Best part of frozen paste is you can use it directly for recipes or add it with water where recipes call for sauce. I also like it as an easy way to make a pseudo-marinara by combining it 1 to 1 with ketchup and spices (garlic, onion, bit of sriracha, basil, and oregano).
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
Amazon has practice tests for the various levels that I found really helpful to focus in on the types of questions that will be asked. The one I used came with a CD for the audio portion, so you may need to get a USB-CD drive if you PC doesn't have one. They're shorter versions, so they take about an hour or so to do, but doing the N5 and N4 tests at the start of this year is why I had the confidence to push myself for the N3.
What does your tutoring entail?
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
I might do that for my blueberry plants that keep getting chomped down during the winter...
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
On my own using Renshuu, reading manga, listening to japanese youtubers, and (recently) reading web serials. The reading is slow going, but I like to think I can get 60-80% of the meaning before looking things up.
I do have an ace up my sleeve though, I was an exchange student to Japan over a decade ago so I have a lot of memories of how things are supposed to be pronounced or the contexts they are said in. Learning the actual reading/writing/kanji has had a lot of "oh, that's where that word comes from".
Have you tried any of the practice exams yet? I took a practice N4 a couple months ago and it ended up being both easier in the multiple choice and harder during the listening section than I expected.
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
Yeah all the rain this summer has been hitting me in the only plant doing well, my tomatoes. I can usually keep the recurrent septoria down with regular spraying but the wetness this year is keeping the tomatoes really weak.
Should still get a bumper jalapeno crop at least, maybe make some jalapeno pineapple tequila again. Also got a great basil harvest to make and freeze pesto.
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
What level JLPT? I am looking to take on the N3 this year.
AnarchyDice
10mo ago
I just turned a can of bad spray polyacrylic into some fake spider webbing for D&D scatter terrain. https://anarchydice.wordpress.com/2024/08/11/spider-webs/
I am also unsuccessfully fighting against rabbit hordes. I've tried coffee grounds, dog hair, rabbit spray, lemons, and companion planting garlic. I already trapped 3 but my bell peppers have been devoured and I didn't get any lettuce to grow larger than 3". Any home-remedies or suggestions I can try?
AnarchyDice
1yr ago
I was an exchange student to the Tokyo area, so I can recommend some food an activities iconic to Japan: Food: Yoshinoya beef bowls are quintessential japanese comfort food. Unagidon at a fancier place is worth the price. You'll typically get a full set of food to go with the delicious eel. Okonomiyaki a savory pancake that your make yourself on a griddle in the center of the table. Gyoza places make for a great mid-day or after dinner snack. Natto, fermented soy beans. This one is very hit or miss with people, but like Chicago and Malort, you have to try it at least once. Sushi, make sure to try at least one Uni (sea urchin). Good flavor and texture but can be pricy to eat a lot. Zenzai/Oshiruko, sweet bean paste soup with toasted mochi rice cakes. Best after a day of skiiing, delicious like a warm mug of hot cocoa Western Fast Food, hear me out. They have some really interesting twists and Japan-only items at McDonalds, KFC, Denny's, donuts, etc. Melonpan/Onigiri/Katsu Sandwich are all found at any convenience stores. Yakiniku, restaurant with a grill in the table, you order and cook what you like to dip in sauces. Great for relaxing after a long day. Shabu-Shabu, basically hot pot, see yakiniku. Vending machines for the experience get some corn soup, coffee, or something else fun. Careful, some of them come out quite hot. Don't wander and eat/drink though. Stand around the vending machine to finish it or take it with you to your destination to drink/eat there. Umeshu, plum-liqueur, is one of my favorites. Get it on the rocks, a sweet, smooth drink with just enough plum bitterness to round it out. Try raw egg on something at least once, because you can, salmonella free.
Activities: Fuji is a good climb but outside of the summer climbing season, climbing is not usually allowed. Random street festivals are worth stopping at for fun carnival type games and food (common foods: takoyaki, balls of dough with octopus. dorayaki, fish shaped dough with sweet bean paste. Yakisoba, fried noodles with sauce). Karaoke can be fun if you find a good group, although might not work if it just the two of you unless you find a group of other tourists or locals to join Tokyo Tower is a good place to see Tokyo from The trains are both an experience and very convenient in the Tokyo area. Especially to go to places like Akihabara. Cars in the Tokyo area are going to be a huge hassle with very narrow streets and difficulties parking. New Years is big, so you might be able to see some parades, festivals, or events. If you can, try for one to see them make mochi the traditional way (team of guys hitting cooked rice with wooden mallets) Visit at least one temple and one shrine. Just copy the Japanese people for the customs of how to wash hands, enter the spaces, etc. Buy an Omamori or luck talisman(temple) and Omikuji, paper fortune (shrine). You keep the Omamori but the fortune you only keep if it is good, otherwise you tie it to the provided area to let the shrine hold it for you. Ok, technically, you donate and they give you those things.
The point is that a battery storage system is not hooked up to the theoretical total energy contained in fossil fuels or nuclear rods or solar irradiance, it is connected to the output of the power plants and solar fields. That output (and corresponding residential/commercial/industrial usage numbers) is what the battery needs to be sized in relation to. Heat pumps may help on the margins with that number but there are no low-hanging fruits to pick up in the world of energy usage and production.
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