BANNED USER: /comment/208257
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AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
Interesting that you clicked on this...I hope your day is going well and you're at least finding our conversation stimulating, if you're not finding it pleasant. Looking to reinforce your beliefs about about me? Dig up some dirt? Have at it! Only cowards and scam artists make their profile private.
User ID: 2897
Banned by: @naraburns
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
Stay at home "mumming" as another commenter pointed out, is a totally different beast these days. Women had shit to do back in the day and worked 40 hour weeks darning socks and making clothes etc...etc...and often worked outside the home as well depending on the time period and available jobs. The 50's housewife is a crazy anomaly and was only really a thing for a small swath of the American public during a very specific time period.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
Jesus dude. This is crazy talk, even by my low expectations regarding religious thinkers. I'm here if you want to message or talk to someone.
I was going to evaluate your intelligence and see if this post made sense, but you made your account private because you're either a coward or a dullard. Stand by what you post. I'll fight anyone anywhere.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
If we get to that point then the conflict would never have happened in the first place.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
My understanding is that yes it is. Based on the stories I've read and heard. If I'm wrong I would be happy to see evidence to the contrary.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
Good point! It is going to be interesting as every single human role is done better by machines. We'll be 100% obsolete. I am fine with that as I am pretty good at living a life of indolence and base enjoyment, I've never defined myself by my work. This will not be the case for many and I'm sure a lot of people will be made very upset.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
If people disagree on the answer then they need better forecasting.
I think being a parent is cool too, but if you're expected to do all the house work, childcare and also work a job outside the home that is a terrible deal. That seems to be the expectation in Korea, so again, it is no surprise that a smart women won't sign up for that!
I think you agree that is a bad deal. If you look at the stats even here in the states women do a lot more of the childcare and housework even if they are working the same hours as men. That isn't to say I don't think men get a raw deal in a lot of ways regarding harder more physical jobs, forced military participation, etc...etc...but to claim that women were happy to be house slaves before someone learned them wrong is also disingenuous.
So you want to be a house servant? Is that what I am hearing here? We don't live in the past, we live in a world of birth control and equal rights. The revealed preference is a lot less barefoot in the kitchen pregnant style living. You don't have to take my word for it. Why do you think birth rates are dropping like a stone?
Is woman wanting "liberation" a modern phenomenon or did they always want more control over their lives? If you made the mistake of educating one I mean. Mary Wollstonecraft was 1792 and she wasn't the first.
So you want to be a breeding house servant? Is that the kind of life you would chose for yourself? If you think it is a good one why aren't you living it? If you would like to I would be happy to employ you for child rearing in exchange food and a place to sleep! If you could also work 40 hours a week to be able to pay for my house that would be great too!
This is all mixed in with the recent population decline panic, which is another silly thing as human labor is going to be 100% obsolete inside of the next 2 decades.
Also my Huxley joke is actually hilarious and I'm upset you didn't chuckle at it. The motte is honestly far to serious most of the time. Lighten up people!
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
2d ago
Well then it sucks to be the kind of person that would enjoy life as a breeding machine + house servant. Maybe some people love it, but that is pretty close to being dosed with alcohol as a fetus so you'll enjoy being a Delta in a Huxley book.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
You can make large stakes bets, but as I said they are handicapped to the point where your odds are less than 50% of winning because of spreads.
Is the market irrational? Or are you?
Fair point there are a lot of positives to be had from certain predictive algorithms.
I don't know what this last one means.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
Do I need to get out the Dennis Nedry "nobody cares" gif out?
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
Well no of course not. Women are people too and that sucks as a life.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
Yeah if you're smart, at all, you figure out it is all make believe bullshit when you learn that Santa or the Tooth Fairy aren't real. For everyone else...I mean if they can't get out of the simple indoctrination, maybe they were going to be ideologically captured by something worse down the line? That is my steel man.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
This whole thing is getting crazy enough that it is even leaking into NPR on my commute and I've heard several stories about it from major news outlets. They of course are spinning it as the eventual chickens coming home to roost from having men that do zero child rearing and housework and also having the women work outside the home too (which is what they wanted!). But regardless of how they got there, they have a solid point. No one is going to willingly sign up for a life of wage slavery + all domestic tasks, that is fucking crazy town. You or I wouldn't do that!!! It is no wonder women are mad and opting out. It is the only rational option.
Well if you walk out your door and a little box on your wrist literally tells you what you'll do next, even if you change your mind, or more importantly, what others will do. If it is always right you'll trust it. Then that might be good enough to get people to 99.9% yah? It is possible, yet not likely.
True, I was thinking from a more general genealogy family tree prospective but yeah I guess his mother's DNA isn't going to help us at all here!!! I was totally wrong to even mention it and I'm not sure why I did. We really need his or his kids plus a Castro relative.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
3d ago
Without being rude I highly doubt that to be the case. You're not the only one doing X.
Interesting premise. It is nice to have it all laid out for once! I'll have to think on a lot of this and get back to you. Well constructed.
Edit to say that JP is a weak moron. I can't stop myself, after being accosted in my social group by his fans when he first started. I always shat on his simplistic takes, weird reedy voice, lobster analogies since I'm from Maine and have actually caught lobsters, clean your room advice; his subsequent fall into madness and addiction was really very satisfying for me.
I'll never forget a Joe Rogan appearance where he was bragging about being able to lift a small box.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
4d ago
What a fucking bad ass. I would have slept with him if I were Mrs. Trudeau
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
4d ago
I'm not here to make the world a better place. I do that in real life where I am kind to my family, friends and everyone I meet for the most part, I go out of my way to help almost anyone that isn't an asshole, to the point where it confuses people used to being scammed or ignored.
I kind of think of it as A Picture of Dorian Grey type situation. I take the ugly weirdness, intrusive thoughts and over-analysis and put 'em online, where often they provide entertainment and food for thought for the people that don't wish to contribute. I've been doing that since college oh so many years ago. If "do something" is your motto, what are you doing to make the world a better place today?
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
4d ago
I see people say things like this. I seldom (never) see anyone do things like this. Tax exemptions are also not a panacea for creating a successful organization, the Satanic Temple and Universal Life Church are not exactly going gangbusters. I suppose you're thinking more along the lines of the Amish or Hassidic Jews and maybe a touch of Mormonism. But they were all well established without tax breaks.
American life (in general) continues on apace without much in the way of influence from these successful insular organizations, so I'm not sure how, even in success, this would help with @Capital_Room's question. I, however, given our previous interactions, am not surprised that your solution to almost any issue is more dakka religion.
Good writeup I read your article.
The biggest gap I see in prediction markets is a lack of actual large stakes betting without a house spread. It is either play money, or amounts too small to matter, or it is rigged against you by spreads in Vegas.
I would say the biggest betting markets you've missed are the actual financial, governmental and business markets. That is where the rubber hits the road and huge fortunes are gambled on directional bets. If every country that can is investing in nukes then nukes are probably important on the world stage; if every company that can invest in AI is doing so, the AI is probably key to business going forward.
There is another problem with forecasting that I'm sure people have written doctorial dissertations on. If it gets really good and really common then how would one extract any value from it? It would lack the informational asymmetry that might bring you value today if you had the only good predictive model for something important.
The final issue is that if it is common and good then it will alter the very things it is trying to predict. Does predicting it make it true when we trust predictions at a 99.9% confidence ratio? Is there then a rebound effect where they become worthless and you need a meta meta meta meta meta prediction market to determine the accuracy of the prediction market you're trusting to verify the accuracy of prediction market that you're using to make the initial prediction?
Postscriptum for my deterministic peeps out there-
Eventually everyone will have to accept total hard determinism, because after all, what are scientific physical laws but predictions that are right 100% of the time. But until then, there are hurdles to jump over in finding value in this space.
Let me see if I can talk around all the words you're putting in my mouth...
When you give women the option not to be a stay at home mom...most take it. When they have the option to have fewer children, most take it. Hence the reduction in family formation and lack of children. Revealed preferences.
Also, talk about a straw man. Yeeeaaaash.
Funny that you posted this just yesterday, "If you want I can make up an arbitrary position, ascribe it to you, give you hell for not defending it, and then conspicuously stop responding when you point out that you've literally never said such a thing."
You are channeling Hlynka!
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