TheBearJew
1yr ago
The other day, the Fed raised interest rates and Jerome Powell made a statement that the market interpreted as him suggesting that he was going to loosen monetary policy so it shot straight up. Then about an hour later, he clarified that their interpretation was wrong and the market crashed hard. Here's the best advice you can get on predicting how the market will react to news.
TheBearJew
1yr ago
It's all of the above, or at least that's why the betting market is the state that it is. Problem is that there's no way to know whether the 55% or the 65% of Republicans winning is correct.
Nate Silver has a very thoughtful write up about his own uncertainties regarding his model.
It's just that one specific tweet, not your entire account.
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