domain:thezvi.wordpress.com
sun_the_second
30m ago
"If we get nuked at least we'd have got rid of some blacks" is certainly one of the takes.
I'm really just curious what kind of a train of thought led you to that.
TequilaMockingbird
54m ago
Is "DR3" false? and if it is true should we not decry them?
Rov_Scam
55m ago
You fire the coach before trading the QB because replacement level coaches are nearly as good as great coaches, while replacement level QBs are essentially useless for a win-now roster.
I think you have too optimistic a view of replacement-level coaches. First, we need to define out terms, and since it's raining this morning, I took a look at every head coach who has coached since 2007, the year Mike Tomlin, the longest-tenured current head coach, was hired. The trouble with defining replacement-level is that head coaches are normally judged on one thing and one thing only: Wins. The median winning percentage for all head coaches is .427. The mean is only slightly higher, at .430. And this is average, meaning a full half of all coaches are going to have worse records. In order to divorce wins from the equation, I looked at the number of seasons each team coached, under the presumption that good coaches tend to coach longer than bad ones. I used the same coaches as before, but eliminated anyone currently coaching to reduce the sample size problem, e.g. it makes Mike McDonald look like the greatest head coach of all time, though no one thinks he's going to end his career anywhere near 1.000. I will also add that I included data from these coaches' entire careers, not just 2007 and later. The goal was just to limit the coaches sampled to ones who are reasonably recent (I don't want oddball data from the 20s and 30s skewering the results), and I want to be able to name "replacement level" coaches one would actually be familiar with.
The median coaching tenure among NFL head coaches is 4 years, including current head coaches, and the mean is 6.4 years, though this is heavily skewed by people like Bill Belechick who coach forever and by the fact that I didn't include anyone still on their first year. Numbers are similar for men no longer in the game; a median of 4.2 years and a mean of 6.3 years. What kind of guys coach for 4 years? Think Pat Shurmur, Frank Reich, Mike McCoy, Kliff Kingsbury, Jim Mora, and Matt Nagy. If you want average coaches in terms of win percentage you get guys like Todd Bowles, Tony Sparano, Herm Edwards, and Dick Jauron. Remember, this is an average. Dick Jauron coached 9 years with a losing record. Ken Wisenhunt coached 7.4 years with a .403 winning percentage.
The point of replacement level is that average guys are hard to find, since half the guys hired are going to be worse than that. When looking at replacement level coaches, I first looked at the shortest tenures (I didn't include interim coaches or interim stints in this, since these guys were only coaching out of necessity, even if they ended up with the job the next season). The guys with very short tenures are who'd expect, and I'll call these guys "below replacement". Urban Meyer, Bobby Petrino, and Nathanial Hackett didn't even last one season. Cam Cameron did, but at 1–15 he has the lowest winning percentage of any coach on the list. Every coach who lasted fewer than 2 seasons has a winning percentage below .400 with 2 exceptions: Mike Singeltary (.450) and Ben McAdoo (.464). The way I see it, the true replacement level guys are those who lasted 2 or 3 seasons and have records somewhere in the .300 to .400 neighborhood. These are guys like Matt Patricia, Greg Schiano, Brandon Staley, Rod Marinelli, and Tom Cable. Brandon Staley, with a .500 record is a steal. If any of these guys look attractive to you, then fire Sirianni, whose .667 winning percentage is behind only Jim Harbaugh, Matt LaFleur, and Tony Dungy among coaches surveyed, and ahead of Reid, Belichick, and Tomlin. Remember, if you're firing your coach, you're lucky if you get anyone better than Kliff Kingsbury.
Highlandclearances
1hr ago
Yes, but the magnitude matters. America becoming ~45% non-Hispanic white and 25% Hispanic is baked in now.
However, keep legal plus illegal immigration at 3 million plus for another generation and the demographic shares will continue to shift (toward more black and Asian specifically). It will be very different from current no matter what, but how different is tbd.
roystgnr
1hr ago
I'd consider my credit+debit+cash to be urgent and my driver's license to be replaceable ... but in effect that means I'd definitely have ID, since it's all in the same wallet.
I feel like the "I don't know anybody voting for Nixon" lady, but I don't think I know any adult who doesn't carry ID habitually. I guess my wife sometimes leaves her ID and cards at home when I'm driving, but even then it's less often than not.
Things are probably different in cities with good mass transit, but does that describe any of the ones flooding?
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1hr ago
There’s no reversing that.
Fully, no, but I'd be interested in statistics on what the racial makeup would look like if the 20 or 30 biggest cities got deleted; my eyeball says they tend somewhat more minority (especially black).
Lewis2
1hr ago
At this point, the medical establishment and government don’t (or at least, I really, really hope they don’t) have enough credibility left to enforce anti-pandemic measures. Even if avian flu does become a human pandemic and is widely acknowledged as such, it’s probably just going to have to rip through the population like any other transmittable disease. Those who get sick, get sick; those who die, die; and those who survive eventually reach herd immunity.
Walterodim
Only equals speak the truth, that’s my thought on’t
1hr ago
Realistically, I wouldn't expect even something as dire as the current North Carolina situation to happen in literally an hour. If you live in a hurricane state, you should have some sort of reasonable plan laid out and be ready to execute in the event that something happens. This is probably good advice in general but becomes more important if you're somewhere that has a non-trivial probability of your house just being destroyed. If I lived in such a state, my go bag would include a few documents - it's not like these chew up much space or weight. Currently, I just always keep my passport in the backpack that I travel with, so that would be an automatic one without needing to think about it any further than chucking a few other things in and bugging out. Otherwise, top priorities would vary based on what the situation is. Things that I would pretty much always bring:
- Handgun and magazines
- Passport
- Box of Clif bars and Maurten gels (seriously, it's a shitload of calories without much weight)
- Phone (my case has my driver's license, debit card, and credit card)
- Wool running gear - all-purpose across weather and keeps me warm even if wet
- Handwarmers
Imperfect, but doesn't weigh much, is enough calories to survive for a few days even with heavy movement, includes self-defense, some warmth, and includes money and ID restoration.
TequilaMockingbird
1hr ago
Its not incongruous at all.
You're forgetting that the past is a foriegn country, and that the current left/right bifurcation of the parties is a relatively recent phenomenon (within the last 50 years or so).
The man widely regarded as the founder of the modern Republican party, Abraham Lincoln, was "A War-of-Southern-Treason-era Unitedstatesian" and is still recognizably a Republican within the current framework.
Lewis2
1hr ago
Not thinking to grab your social security card and birth certificate I fully understand, but how would you possibly leave behind your driver’s license? Do you not keep it in your wallet, phone case, car, or some other similar place? I honestly couldn’t tell you the last time I left home without my driver’s license, since it never leaves my wallet.
roystgnr
1hr ago
Thanks for these. I don't see much to argue about with them, though I'm suspicious about that since the hook-shaped curve flatters my priors from other vaguely-recalled studies. The zeitgeist of "I shouldn't have kids while I'm still struggling with the rat race" favors the people who've won (their idea of) the rat race, but not as much as it favors the people who just decide not to run.
jeroboam
1hr ago
I think yes, in general.
But most virtuous and viscous cycles have limiting factors. A forest fire grows until it runs out of fuel then it stops.
Stellula
1hr ago
Okay I’ll respond here and say: my drivers license or any of my “documents” would be among the last things I would think to grab. I’d want:
-
Kids/wife/debit card
-
Hardware authenticators (irreplaceable)
-
Laptop
-
Gun
-
“Survival” stuff like a fishing rod and a water filter and some lighters.
I realize this makes me very stupid, and this event has made me reevaluate my thoughts. For instance if I lost ALL of my “documents”, could I reconstruct them? My intuition says: yes, easily. Just “steal” my own identity. I have my DL# and SSN memorized. I know my full name, DOB, all of my addresses, employment history, etc.
What would it actually take, I wonder?
Building codes (including Florida's) do contain guidance for designing houses that are resistant to hurricane-force winds. The Wood Frame Construction Manual, incorporated by reference into the code sections linked above, permits prescriptive design for wind speeds all the way up to 195 mi/h.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2hr ago
I think most men ruled out my my heuristic are not men I would have wanted to marry. My heuristic means the men I dated had the bare minimum risk tolerance, agency, and social graces.
"Doesn't abuse you" is such a low bar. I selected for a man with the agency to pull over on a highway and yank away a ladder blocking a lane, while other drivers just passed it. I selected for a man who will volunteer to reboot a router when the local coffee shop has trouble with their POS system. I selected for a man who is familiar with the social norms my friends and family share.
dukeleto
3hr ago
Oregon has actually amended this law and you are allowed to pump your own gas now!
stolen_brawnze
I am the way Sia says "batteries" in that one song.
3hr ago
Good. The US just a week or so ago started unwinding monetary policy that was necessary to avoid having the response to Covid destroy the US dollar. That’s nearly five years after the first case was discovered!
And it was all to try to save mom-and-pop businesses who all went out of business anyway just a few years later, under the weight of their nearly-free government loans.
Just get the fuckin flu, man.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
3hr ago
I'm curious what the alternative is to building homes and watching them get wrecked.
Concrete. We have the technology to build homes which would take a Category 5 to wreck (and Category 5s are very rare even in Florida). RVs would be a very bad tradeoff. Besides the problem of living in an RV all the time, they're going to get wrecked in lesser storms which most current Florida homes easily survive. Plus, you'd never be able to evacuate in time; the roads would be jammed with RVs which would then get wrecked.
Another alternative would be "don't live there at all".
If the cost of rebuilding weren't subsidized, the market would (slowly) come to an equilibrium where either the places would be left without permanent structures or a good tradeoff between "build strong" and "build cheap but accept rebuilding" would be met.
throwaway-7742
3hr ago
A strange thought: should Gulf Coast states become RV states? Hurricane developing? Everyone drives North. Coast is clear? Everyone drives back.
I'm curious what the alternative is to building homes and watching them get wrecked.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
3hr ago
Even if that is all true (and given Turkey's population size, I don't think it is; quantity has a quality all of its own), it's far better for them to be cannon fodder FOR the US than cannon fodder for the other side.
This seems like an easy thing for a relatively young and healthy person (I assume) to say.
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