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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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The people taking the bet in question are articulating it specifically in the terms of the opposition within Elite Theory between Mosca and Michels. Neither side expects anything of Trump qua Trump because it's built into the framework of their worldview that figureheads have no power and that political movements are always and forever small organized minorities that compete on coordination. The B- and C-listers are the movers and shakers, that's a given.

To wit, you're probably right about foreign policy but this is still within the frame of the bet. A Trump 2 that focuses on Chayna and leaves aside all the culture war stuff is I think decently capable of "fresh prince" type reaction. So would Biden magically turning into Bill Clinton, but that's even less likely.

I can even tell you how you'd sell it by emphasizing the multiracial rainbow coalition that is tired of discrimination. "Lefties are the real racists" can absolutely work if the CIA, NYT and other government organizations agree with you (ask the Israel protesters). Do they want to and will that be enough is the question.