I find it easier to place the cultural war aspect of Ivermectin into the category of, probably more effective than it appears since even the FDA will go out of its way to smear the free and safe drug as "horse dewormer."
Yeah, I don't see how this follows. I would expect both P(FDA smears Ivermectin | Ivermectin doesn't work) and P(FDA smears Ivermectin | Ivermectin works) to be close to 1 under our conditions of Ivermectin's culture war role and the FDA, so P(Ivermectin works | FDA smears Ivermectin) is basically the same as the prior P(Ivermectin works).
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Notes -
Yeah, I don't see how this follows. I would expect both P(FDA smears Ivermectin | Ivermectin doesn't work) and P(FDA smears Ivermectin | Ivermectin works) to be close to 1 under our conditions of Ivermectin's culture war role and the FDA, so P(Ivermectin works | FDA smears Ivermectin) is basically the same as the prior P(Ivermectin works).
( P(W|F) = P(F|W)P(W)/P(F) = ~= (1/1) * P(W) = P(W) )
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