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PaperclipPerfector  6mo ago (text post)   1599 thread views

Transnational Thursday for April 25, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Myanmar

The Burmese Civil War rumbles on, with rebel forces pulling back from Myawaddy on the Thai border, because apparently the Karen National Army and the Karen National Liberation Army don't get along. All the same, the map still isn't looking good for the central government, with attacks on all fronts, fighting on the outskirts of Mandalay, and the Arakan Army closing in on the regional capital of Sittwe. At this point the partition of the country into 5 or more states seems inevitable, which seems like it will be mostly a victory for traffickers of drugs, arms, and people, who can thrive in the chaos of a half dozen failed states. But hey, maybe one of these ethnic groups will thrive without the Bamar boot on their neck and end up building a successful and prosperous society. Here's hoping.

because apparently the Karen National Army and the Karen National Liberation Army don't get along.

Did one of them demand to speak to the manager of the other? Or is this more of a Judean People’s Front vs. People’s Front of Judea type of feud?

Hard to tell what the Chinese game plan is here. The partial ambition for their intervention in support of the rebels was to deal with the Chinese crime lords who were tolerated by the junta and who were involved in a lot of corruption, scamming, bribery, organized crime in China proper and harboring wanted Chinese fugitives that the CCP didn’t want to let disappear. But if the whole country collapses that problem will only get worse for the Chinese since absolute lawlessness will likely only allow for further criminal activity, make it easier to disappear and so on.

I think Ive played to much civ, but wouldnt it be a complete power move from China to intervene heavily and ensure a semi-vassal regime comes to power including rights to build navy bases and ports at the indian ocean and rail connections to china? It would have major impact on their situation if they could avoid the straight of Malaca and the island chains around them. Seems that in the current situation it would be an easy sell to intervene/heavily support some faction under a humanitarian pretext, and hard to see what the west could do. Maybe India going bonkers is the consideration? Maybe someone that knows more about the situation can answer?

Wikipedia suggests that, along with Russia, they’re the main suppliers for junta forces. Chinese support for rebel factions was the exception rather than the rule.

On the other hand, China has been pulling Myanmar into Belt and Road since before the coup.

Under a worst-case scenario I would expect Chinese economic and political support and perhaps a limited military intervention to stabilize the Kachin and Shan statelets on their border as a buffer zone. There isn't any other country that would want to get involved, so they might even be able to get the UN to foot the bill for such an operation if they play their cards right.

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