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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   1054 thread views

Transnational Thursday for April 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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The Russians made a break through the Ukrainian lines today: https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1782520078170206310

I don't have enough knowledge to say how bad this is, but it seems pretty bad. I'm getting the feeling that the war there might be approaching the point where the Ukrainians can no longer fight effectively, at least not unless they get a whole lot more aid.

Seems like if they hold on to it it'd put Ukraine's new defensive line at the Vocha in the south, idk about the north it's not been as active, probably collapse the pocket at least near Keramik. Which is about as big a chunk of land as Ukraine gained during the failed counter-offensive. So not much really considering how big Ukraine is. It's high ground which will give Russia advantages in the attritional war as well. Main take away of this war is that maneuver warfare is dead on a modern battlefield. Can't push deep without losing EW and other needed protections and getting droned to death. Taking territory is more about positional advantages.

Still not good for Ukraine though especially considering troops refusing to fight has been happening regularly, refusals in avdiivka earlier this year, and in Chasiv Yar recently. News recently was that Ukraine would have to accept a truce by the end of the year without more aid, seems more likely that they were looking at suffering a major collapse and breakthrough before the elections. Probably why they pulled out whatever intelligence agency leverage they had on Johnson and got him to trade in his political career for CNN contributor or wherever he ends up.

I agree that this doesnt seem like it will lead to a big change in territory. But its bad in that it shows Ukraine's troops starting to crack under the pressure. Thats really the endgame of attritional warfare... bot to take territory, but to degrade tgeir army to the point they cant fight anymore

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